Welcome back to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks. Yesterday was a good day that was almost perfect. The Blue Jays money line cashed with a 4-0 win over the Pirates. The Oakland-Kansas City Over 9.5 runs wasn't a sweat with a 12-8 final. The Brewers -0.5 run line for the first five innings was a tough loss. The Brewers scored two runs in the top of the first inning and the Giants scored two in their half. The Brewers led 4-2 going to the bottom of the fifth before the Giants scored three runs. Lets go for the sweep today.

 

MLB Best Bets for May 6th

Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

The pitching matchup isn't a great one and the bullpens can give up runs. Corey Kluber takes the mound for Boston with a 6.44 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 45.6% hard hit rate, and a 20.6% strikeout rate. He has allowed eight home runs in 29.1 innings. The Phillies offense has disappointed, but Bryce Harper is back. The Red Sox offense has been good against left-handed pitching, averaging 5.9 runs per game and face southpaw Bailey Falter. He is 0-5 with a 5.01 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 16.3% strikeout rate. The Red Sox have scored at least five runs in seven consecutive games, including at least seven runs in five of those games. The Red Sox are 25-9 on the over and with the pitching matchup, bullpens, and good hitters park, the over is the play.

Pick: Red Sox/Phillies over 9.5 runs (-110 on DraftKings)

 

Baltimore Orioles at Atlanta Braves

The Braves were favored in Game 1 of the series and lost to the Orioles, 9-4. The Orioles are 22-10, including 13-6 on the road. The Braves don't lose often and haven't lost consecutive games in two weeks. The Braves have a big advantage with the starting pitchers with Spencer Strider on the mound. He is one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 4-0 record, 2.57 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 41% percent strikeout rate. Strider is near the top of many Statcast categories and has allowed 19 hits in 35 innings. The Orioles will start Kyle Bradish and he has a 6.14 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Bradish is coming off two awful starts against the Red Sox and Tigers. In those two starts, he went seven innings and allowed 14 hits, ten runs, walked five, and struck out six. The Braves offense will be a difficult test for Bradish. The Braves have won 16 of their 22 games by multiple runs.

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 Run Line (-113 on FanDuel)

 

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks

MacKenzie Gore has pitched well and kept the Nationals in games. He has a 29.5% strikeout rate and has pitched at least 5.1 innings in four of his six starts and allowed three earned runs or fewer in each. Tommy Henry gets the start for Arizona and he allows a lot of contact with a 9.3% strikeout rate and 11.6% walk rate. Henry has faced the Royals and Rockies and allowed 11 hits, seven runs, five walks, and struck out four over 9.2 innings. We will take the Nationals to lead the game after five with the better pitcher on the mound.

Pick: Nationals First 5 innings Run Line (+100 on BetMGM)

*All bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned

 

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