MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks for May 3
Welcome back to the MLB Best Bets and Betting Picks. It had been a tough end to the month of April and the start of May has us continuing down that rocky path. The San Diego Padres bats were a no-show against Graham Ashcraft, scoring got out of control in the Baltimore Orioles/Kansas City Royals and another bullpen letdown cost us the win in the Minnesota Twins game. A brutal day like that puts us in the red for the very first time this season and we need to dig ourselves out of it. If you came to me asking what to do, I would tell you to take a few days off. Clear your head and then get back into it. I would love to do that myself, but have a responsibility to you, the subscriber. My recommendation is to play very light if you are tailing my picks. I’ll bounce back, I have no doubt. It’s just going to take a little mind-clearing. I will continue to play what I give out and move forward. I will maintain my unit amount to maintain the accuracy of my reporting, but would not be averse to you lowering your unit amount temporarily. It might take a little longer to get back on top, but we will. I have no doubt. I have not had a losing season since I first started regularly betting on MLB and I don’t plan to start now.
- Yesterday’s Record: 0-4
- Season Record: 47-45-2
- Bankroll: -3.90 units
There’s a big 16-game slate to look at today, so let’s just dive in.
MLB Best Bets for May 3
San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros
The Giants bats continue to struggle against left-handed pitching, posting just a .282 wOBA with minimal power, as evidenced by a well below-average .122 ISO mark. They have the second-lowest weighted runs created metric and are fanning 29.3-percent of the time against southpaws. It’s going to be awfully difficult for them to manufacture runs against Framber Valdez who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in an outing this season and has tossed five-straight quality starts. On the other side is Logan Webb who has finally gotten himself back on-track over his last two starts. The Houston bats are not producing as we would expect and they have just a .296 wOBA with a .115 ISO and 23.7-percent K-rate. With the Houston offense struggling as much as it has over the past week and with the Giants struggles against lefties, we’re looking for a low-scoring affair.
Pick: Giants/Astros under 7.5 runs (-115 on BetMGM)
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
We’re going right back to this game and we’re going to attack it with a vengeance. Ashcraft may have been able to stifle a surging Padres lineup, but Luis Cessa will not. He’s just not that good. On the other side it Seth Lugo who has been solid, but the 3.58 ERA and 1.30 WHIP indicates he is not untouchable. I’m not saying this Reds team is going to jump all over him, but he is probably good to give up a couple of runs here. The implied totals from Vegas are pushing this game slightly above the nine-run threshold and I am going to lean that way as well. Interestingly enough, the odds are tilting towards the under, but we’re going to turn away from how the books are pushing you.
Pick: Padres/Reds over 9 runs (-105 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees
Last time Shane Bieber was on the mound, I was concerned over his peripherals and how things were looking for him to keep runs off the board. He turned around and continued to deliver another strong performance, giving him five quality starts out of six outings this season. Now he’ll face a Yankees team that, even at home, is spiraling down the drain. They’ve lost Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton to the injured list and over the past week, they’ve posted a dismal .282 wOBA and have the seventh-lowest weighted runs created. While the Guardians haven’t been much better regarding their run production, they’ll be facing Clarke Schmidt who continues to struggle. He allowed five earned runs in five innings his last time out and he’s allowed five home runs over his last four outings. Based on the pitching match-up, I’ll just look to the Guardians for the win.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians Money Line (-125 on BetMGM)
*all bets are one unit unless specifically mentioned
Player News
Brandon Nimmo is on the bench Tuesday after collecting nine RBI in Monday’s blowout win.
That must have taken a lot out of him. Nimmo started the Mets’ first 23 games, all in left field, but he’s now sat out versus lefties in two of the last seven contests. José Azócar is playing left field tonight.
Even though the Pirates are facing a left-hander, Alexander Canario is on the bench for a fourth straight game Tuesday against the Cubs.
We’re not really sure whether Canario is any good or not, but what we do know is that his 26 at-bats this season have produced six barrels and four additional hard-hit balls. They’ve amounted to only two hits, but Statcast gives him a .247 xBA and a .726 xSLG. If the Pirates, who have started him twice in 14 games, don’t see any potential there, they might as well put him on waivers and give someone else a chance to take a look.
Guardians transferred RHP Shane Bieber from the 15-day to the 60-day injured list.
This opens a spot on the 40-man for Vince Velasquez. It was reported earlier today that Bieber is set to face hitters in Arizona as he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery.
Roman Anthony is back in left field for Triple-A Worcester on Friday.
Anthony missed the last two games after fouling a ball off his right foot. Injuries seem to be the only thing that can slow down the game’s No. 1 prospect. He’s hitting .313/.451/.588 in 102 plate appearances this season.
Gary Sánchez said the wrist injury that put him on the IL Monday has been lingering for weeks and was bothering him most when he swung the bat.
It sounds like this could be more than a 10-day absence for Sánchez, who is currently wearing a brace on the wrist. Maverick Handley is backing up Adley Rutschman in his place.
Guardians selected the contract of RHP Vince Velasquez from Triple-A Columbus.
Velasquez is back in the majors 23 months after hurting his elbow and requiring surgery. He was off to a nice start for the Pirates in 2023 before the injury, amassing a 3.86 ERA in eight starts. Alas, his results in Triple-A this year have been a far cry from those; he had a 6.00 ERA and an 11/16 K/BB in 15 innings over four starts. He should be able to provide some length tonight if the Guardians need it after being blown out and throwing position players the last two days.