Royals vs Yankees Predictions, Picks & Odds: AL Division Game 1, 10/5
Game 1 of the American League Divisional Series kicks off with a battle between the Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees.
The Royals swept their two game Wild Card series against the Baltimore Orioles and will now send Michael Wacha to the mound to face the top seeded New York Yankees who will be pitching Gerrit Cole.
Before making our Royals vs Yankees predictions let us take a look at the top stories and matchups.
Royals vs Yankees Predictions For AL Divisional Round Game 1
The Royals got strong starts from Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo on their way to a two game sweep over the Baltimore Orioles and will now send Michael Wacha to the mound.
Wacha had a really strong second half, going 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA on his way to a 13-8 record and a 3.35 ERA for the season.
Offensively we know they are carried by Bobby Witt who is going to end up finishing second in MVP voting behind Aaron Judge.
We did see Vinnie Pasquantino return to the Royals lineup last series and his power from the left-side of the plate can play up nicely in Yankee Stadium.
For the Yankees, Gerrit Cole takes the mound. Cole began the year on the IL and had a few rough turns but he too was really strong in the second half of the year, going 6-4 with a 2.76 ERA over his final 12 outings.
Offensively, the Yankees are led by MVP Aaron Judge and that is nothing to take away from the season Juan Soto had in his first year wearing pinstripes. The team also acquired Jazz Chisholm at the trade deadline and have seen improved offense from Gleyber Torres.
Kansas City Royals: Can Royals Pitching Shut Down Yankees?
We saw the Royals pitching hold their own against a very potent Baltimore Orioles lineup but now they have to deal with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
If the Royals pitching can keep the Yankees top two hitters in relative check, I think their own offense can scrap together some runs against the Yankees here tonight but Michael Wacha's start will go a long way here this evening.
New York Yankees: Which Gerrit Cole Shows Up?
Gerrit Cole was not good at home this season, posting an ERA of 4.31. We've also seen Cole at times struggle in the postseason and we know there have always been some questions regarding his ability to step up in the big moments.
With the spotlight on the Yankees here as the top seed in the AL with Game 1 in Yankee Stadium the pressure is on.
Will we see the Gerrit Cole that looks like a Cy Young contender or the one that when things start to unravel he folds?
Royals vs Yankees Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
We’re about to break down our Royals vs Yankees predictions, but first, here are the current Royals vs Yankees odds, spreads, totals and betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook:
Run Line
- Royals +1.5 (-130)
- Yankees -1.5 (+110)
Money Line
- Royals: +164
- Yankees: -198
Total
- 75 (Over -108/Under -112)
Royals vs Yankees Starting Pitcher & Lineup
Michael Wacha, Kansas City Royals
Wacha had a really strong second half, going 7-2 with a 2.79 ERA on his way to a 13-8 record and a 3.35 ERA for the season.
He did have better splits this season at home than on the road and Yankee Stadium can certainly be a tough place for opposing pitchers, especially as the Yankees stack their lineup with power bat at the top.
Cole began the year on the IL and had a few rough turns but he too was really strong in the second half of the year, going 6-4 with a 2.76 ERA over his final 12 outings.
Cole was not good at home this season, posting an ERA of 4.31 so we will see if he can right that ship here in Game 1.
Royals vs Yankees: Yankees -1.5 Runs (+110 on DraftKings)
I don't usually take the run lines in baseball but with the game total leaning on the over 7.5 runs and the Yankees nearly -200 moneyline favorites it just seems like the lean here is on the Yankees winning by more than 1.5 runs at plus odds is the right play here tonight.
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Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.