Underdog Fantasy NFL Picks Week 10 TNF: Adam Thielen & Tyson Bagent Plays for Panthers vs Bears
NFL Week 10 kicks off tonight with the Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears matchup on Thursday Night Football. Let's break down some NFL Underdog Fantasy picks for this Panthers vs Bears TNF game. Our top NFL picks today feature Panthers WR Adam Thielen and Bears QB Tyson Bagent. Enjoy these NFL Underdog top plays and Thursday Night Football picks as you watch tonight's game. As always, be sure to check out the latest NFL injury updates ahead of this TNF Panthers vs Bears showdown. If you're making more NFL picks tonight or making NFL DFS lineups, check out our NFL daily projections. Now, let's dive into the top NFL Week 10 picks on Underdog Fantasy for Thursday Night Football.
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NFL Underdog Fantasy Top Picks
Week 10 Thursday Night Football Panthers vs Bears
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers – HIGHER Than 6.5 Receptions
Last week, Adam Thielen was held in check with five receptions for only 29 yards against the Colts. Let’s count on a bounceback for the Carolina Panthers wide receiver tonight for Thursday Night Football. Before that last game, Thielen had 7+ receptions in six straight games and averaged 9.2 catches per contest during that stretch. He’s also seen double-digit targets in four of the last six games coming into tonight while dominating the target share in the Panthers’ receiving corps. Ever since he only had two catches on two targets back in Week 1, Thielen has been a target hog and reception machine as Bryce Young’s favorite pass-catcher. The Panthers’ rookie QB is unsurprisingly leaning on his veteran wideout for easy and quick completions.
Tonight, this matchup suggests Thielen should get back to a higher-reception game – though his five catches last week weren’t too bad. The Chicago Bears have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, allowing 256.9 passing yards per game (5th-most) and ranking 31st in pass DVOA. Some opposing top wideouts and/or possession receivers like Thielen have had good games vs the Bears lately. Chris Olave (6 catches), Keenan Allen (8), Davante Adams (7), and Jakobi Meyers (7) have all been around or over this 6.5 reception line in the past three games alone.
Tyson Bagent, Chicago Bears – LOWER Than 187.5 Passing Yards
With Justin Fields out again this week, Tyson Bagent will start his fourth straight game for the Chicago Bears. It’s been an up-and-down last month for the rookie quarterback, who got a win in his first NFL start but has since thrown five interceptions over the past two games. This matchup and game flow on Thursday Night Football should limit his passing yards.
First off, Bagent’s passing yard totals have been 162, 232, and 220 in his first three starts. Notably, the lowest number came in a Bears win. Tonight, Chicago is slightly favored at home and could be playing with a lead against the lowly Panthers. Either way, we may see Chicago lean on the run more with Khalil Herbert back healthy and creating a 1-2 punch with D’Onta Foreman. The Bears will want to avoid any more Bagent interceptions, so that favors a run-focused offensive gameplan too.
Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers defense has struggled against the run but is pretty tough against opposing quarterbacks. The Panthers are allowing just 178.3 passing yards per game, the fifth-lowest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Carolina rush defense ranks fifth-worst in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. This matchup also points to the Bears running it more often. Four of eight opposing QBs against the Panthers have been held under 200 passing yards. All four have also finished with less than 180 yards. That includes both of the past two opposing QBs (Gardner Minshew with 127 and C.J. Stroud with 140).
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The Athletic’s Mike DeFabo believes RB Kaleb Johnson is a “schematic fit” for the Steelers offense.
Johnson, a third-round draft pick who last month was listed as a co-starter alongside Jaylen Warren on the Pittsburgh depth chart, was a hyper-productive back in Iowa’s zone-based rushing scheme, a system used frequently in Arthur Smith’s run-first offense. Only three college running backs in 2024 logged more zone rushes than Johnson. Johnson’s goals in offseason practices, according to DeFabo, “are to learn the playbook and earn the coaching staff’s trust with the hope of becoming an ‘every-down back’ sooner rather than later.” That might require Johnson to improve his pass blocking. The rookie said he’s worked on that with Warren — one of the best blocking backs in the NFL — in recent days.
The Chiefs will play the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day.
The Week 13 matchup will bring Patrick Mahomes and the AFC champion Chiefs to Dallas for the day’s late afternoon game. It could be a shootout if key players on both sides are healthy. Dak Prescott heads into the season with George Pickens as a legit WR2 behind CeeDee Lamb, and Mahomes — who has talked this offseason about more explosive plays for the KC offense — will have Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Hollywood Brown at his disposal. Mahomes has faced Dallas once in his NFL career, a Week 11 win in 2021 in which he threw for 260 scoreless yards. The hope for both the league and fantasy managers is that the Cowboys are still in postseason contention by the end of November.
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.