NFL Week 10 kicks off tonight with the Carolina Panthers vs Chicago Bears matchup on Thursday Night Football. Let's break down some NFL Underdog Fantasy picks for this Panthers vs Bears TNF game. Our top NFL picks today feature Panthers WR Adam Thielen and Bears QB Tyson Bagent. Enjoy these NFL Underdog top plays and Thursday Night Football picks as you watch tonight's game. As always, be sure to check out the latest NFL injury updates ahead of this TNF Panthers vs Bears showdown. If you're making more NFL picks tonight or making NFL DFS lineups, check out our NFL daily projections. Now, let's dive into the top NFL Week 10 picks on Underdog Fantasy for Thursday Night Football.

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NFL Underdog Fantasy Top Picks

Week 10 Thursday Night Football Panthers vs Bears

Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers – HIGHER Than 6.5 Receptions

Last week, Adam Thielen was held in check with five receptions for only 29 yards against the Colts. Let’s count on a bounceback for the Carolina Panthers wide receiver tonight for Thursday Night Football. Before that last game, Thielen had 7+ receptions in six straight games and averaged 9.2 catches per contest during that stretch. He’s also seen double-digit targets in four of the last six games coming into tonight while dominating the target share in the Panthers’ receiving corps. Ever since he only had two catches on two targets back in Week 1, Thielen has been a target hog and reception machine as Bryce Young’s favorite pass-catcher. The Panthers’ rookie QB is unsurprisingly leaning on his veteran wideout for easy and quick completions. 

Tonight, this matchup suggests Thielen should get back to a higher-reception game – though his five catches last week weren’t too bad. The Chicago Bears have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, allowing 256.9 passing yards per game (5th-most) and ranking 31st in pass DVOA. Some opposing top wideouts and/or possession receivers like Thielen have had good games vs the Bears lately. Chris Olave (6 catches), Keenan Allen (8), Davante Adams (7), and Jakobi Meyers (7) have all been around or over this 6.5 reception line in the past three games alone.

Tyson Bagent, Chicago Bears – LOWER Than 187.5 Passing Yards

With Justin Fields out again this week, Tyson Bagent will start his fourth straight game for the Chicago Bears. It’s been an up-and-down last month for the rookie quarterback, who got a win in his first NFL start but has since thrown five interceptions over the past two games. This matchup and game flow on Thursday Night Football should limit his passing yards.

First off, Bagent’s passing yard totals have been 162, 232, and 220 in his first three starts. Notably, the lowest number came in a Bears win. Tonight, Chicago is slightly favored at home and could be playing with a lead against the lowly Panthers. Either way, we may see Chicago lean on the run more with Khalil Herbert back healthy and creating a 1-2 punch with D’Onta Foreman. The Bears will want to avoid any more Bagent interceptions, so that favors a run-focused offensive gameplan too. 

Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers defense has struggled against the run but is pretty tough against opposing quarterbacks. The Panthers are allowing just 178.3 passing yards per game, the fifth-lowest in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Carolina rush defense ranks fifth-worst in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. This matchup also points to the Bears running it more often. Four of eight opposing QBs against the Panthers have been held under 200 passing yards. All four have also finished with less than 180 yards. That includes both of the past two opposing QBs (Gardner Minshew with 127 and C.J. Stroud with 140). 

 

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