We close out Week 18, and the NFL regular season, with a matchup straight out of the NFC North as the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions will compete for their division’s crown and the top seed in the NFC playoff picture. Both teams are coming off wins in Week 17 and have arguably been the class of their conference. Detroit’s been one of the best teams in the league all year, but the injuries are mounting up. Can they earn that much-needed Bye week in the first round of the playoffs and use the time off to get healthy? Let’s take a look at the latest Vikings vs. Lions DFS picks for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Vikings vs. Lions DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 1/5

Both teams are coming off wins in Week 17 and they both sit at 14-2 with the Lions holding the tiebreaker. But with both teams having the same record entering Week 18, the tiebreaker is irrelevant (unless this game ends in a tie) and this game has massive implications for the NFC playoff picture. Whoever wins will be the division champion and get a week off. The loser, on the other hand, will earn the 5-seed and likely play the winner of the NFC South in the Wild Card round.

It really can’t be overstated how great of a coach Kevin O’Connell is. After getting off to a 5-0 start, the team went into their Bye week with a little momentum after losing 2024 first-round pick, J.J. McCarthy, to a season-ending injury. But coming out of their Bye week, they dropped two games (the first of which being to Detroit), but have rattled off nine straight wins to get to 14-2. Sam Darnold has looked like a player to consider as the league’s MVP at times, and he’s certainly due to earn a big contract in free agency.

Detroit has also been dominant all season long. They rattled off 11 straight wins from Weeks 3-14 and their only losses have been to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills. However, the injuries are starting to mount up at the absolute worst time. We touched on several of these ahead of last Monday’s NFL DFS Showdown Playbook when the Lions took on the 49ers. But all is not lost. They still have one of the best offenses in the game with a lot of explosiveness. Is the defense beat up? Sure, but that could lead to a high scoring affair later this evening.

Let’s dig in and examine the latest Vikings vs. Lions DFS picks and lineup building strategies for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Vikings vs. Lions SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -3 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Vikings (+130)
    • Lions (-155)
  • Game Total: Over 56.5 (-108) / Under 56.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Lions -2.5 (-120)
  • Money Line:
    • Vikings (+130)
    • Lions (-154)
  • Game Total: Over 56.5 (-105) / Under 56.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Vikings vs Lions SNF, January 5th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment, so we don’t have any weather concerns for our SNF DFS picks.

 

Vikings vs Lions Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 18

The visiting Minnesota Vikings have only ruled out linebacker Patrick Jones II ahead of Sunday Night Football. A couple other players on defense (Kamu Grugier-Hill and Fabian Moreau) are listed as questionable. But overall, for our SNF DFS picks, the Vikings offensive weapons come in with a clean bill of health.

The Detroit Lions have already ruled out running back, David Montgomery. That’s not a huge surprise but there’s a chance he can return for the playoff run. Defensive back Emmanuel Moseley has also been ruled out. Fortunately, the Lions could get a reinforcement on defense as there’s a chance Alex Anzalone returns for this game after being out since Week 11.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $13,500

Gibbs is actually discounted a bit on FanDuel, so I do like the play over there despite the fact I’m more of a DraftKings player. Gibbs was another phenomenal play last week against the San Francisco 49ers, where he saw plenty of volume.

On 18 carries, he rushed for 117 yards and caught four passes for an additional 46 yards, marking his second consecutive game with 100+ rushing yards and 40+ receiving yards. He also found the end zone for the fourth straight game and he’s popped for 28+ fantasy points on DraftKings in three straight games.

When these two teams met back in Week 7, Gibbs went for 116 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards on four receptions, and he found the end zone twice. The Vikings have not been an easy team to run on this year but Gibbs’ involvement in the passing game and heavy volume have him shaping up as a rather obvious MVP/Captain candidate for our Vikings vs. Lions DFS picks.

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $11,400 | FanDuel: $15,000

Not sure what else needs to be said regarding Jefferson. Jetta did have a rough stretch in the middle portion of the season, but he’s heating back up again just in time for the playoffs.

He has 39 receptions over his last five games with 53 targets and five touchdowns as well. Needless to say, we know the ceiling is there and the matchup is outstanding against this Lions secondary that has allowed 1,085 passing yards in their last three games.

Jefferson went for 7-8-81-1 when these teams met in Week 7 and that’s a rather tame stat line for a player of his caliber. Last year, against the Lions in Weeks 15 and 17, Jefferson compiled a stat line of 18-24-333-2 across both games. He’s 121 yards away from his third 1,600+ yard season. If he gets there, he’d be the only receiver in NFL history with three seasons eclipsing 1,600+ receiving yards. With a lot on the line tonight, I’m looking for the Vikings to lean heavily on their WR1.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $13,000

Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $10,500

Both receivers for Detroit have an outstanding ceiling in a game like this. We’ll start with ARSB as he’s the definitive WR1 in this offense. On the year he has 109 receptions for 1,186 yards and a dozen touchdowns. When these teams met in Week 7, St. Brown caught all eight of his targets for 112 yards and a touchdown. Lost in the fold of his great stats and performances is the fact he has just one drop all season long.

Williams didn’t get going in the Week 7 matchup between these two teams. He managed to catch his lone target for a loss of four yards and then had to serve a two-game suspension after that. The downside with Williams is that volume isn’t as abundant as it is with ARSB. He hasn’t recorded more than five receptions in a game this year. However, he’s recorded exactly five catches in five of his last six games. Over his last three games he’s scored four times and he’s a mid-range play that can go for 24+ fantasy points.

We know that the Vikings have allowed the most fantasy points to receivers this year. That also includes the fifth-most to perimeter receivers and second-most to slot receivers. With a high total, and a lot of volume to go around I’m upgrading both and love the potential for two guys that have already shown they have high ceilings.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,500

Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $14,000

It’s incredibly rare that I write up both quarterbacks in the game together. I’m not opposed to writing up teammates together (as evidenced just above), but I rarely write up opposing quarterbacks together. But I do view them as similar plays that can put up nearly identical scores. Even in Mark Lammey’s NFL SNF Player Prop Picks, he’s taking the over on both their pass attempts, and rightfully so.

Goff correlates well with any of his skill position teammates at MVP/Captain. Over his last three games, he has 1,133 passing yards (300-yard bonus in each game) and 11 touchdowns. When these teams met in Week 7, it was more of a floor game for Goff, but he only attempted 25 passes while posting 280 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He’s averaging just under 400 pass attempts per game over the last six weeks so we should get more volume from the Detroit quarterback tonight.

Darnold has arguably been better than Goff of late and if you play Cash games for NFL DFS Showdown slates, you likely want both quarterbacks in your lineup somehow. He has a dozen touchdowns over his last four games with a pair of 300-yard bonuses in that span. Similar to Goff, he also had more of a “floor” game when these teams met back in Week 7 where he only attempted 27 passes. But again, his volume is also up over his last handful of games and should put up a bigger score this time around.

Aaron Jones, RB, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,500

Great price tag on Jones over on DraftKings as he’s $1,000+ cheaper than either quarterback in this game. We know he’s going to get volume, although the ceiling may not be as high as Gibbs.

The Lions have been very tough to run on this season, but the recent run of injuries has made things easier for opponents just a bit. The 49ers only totaled 75 rushing yards as a team last week against Detroit, but they did log two rushing touchdowns on only 18 rush attempts.

Jones is one of the few running backs who had success running against Detroit this year. In Week 7, he had 14 carries for 93 yards (6.6 yards per carry) and added three receptions as well. I do view him as a core play in the flex simply because he likely sees 15+ touches. But I don’t believe he has much of a chance to register a 100-yard bonus. So, if he’s going to hit the optimal lineup at MVP/Captain he’s likely going to need multiple scores.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $7,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

If there’s one player that I’ll regret ranking so low in this game, it might be Addison. My concern is that he occasionally has games where he sees maybe five or six targets and can’t get into the end zone. If that’s the case, he may not even eclipse double-digit fantasy points.

But we have noted how bad the Lions secondary has been, especially of late. And Addison is very trendy heading into this matchup with 26 catches on 37 targets over his last four games. And in that span he’s scored five times. I will note that in one of those games, he scored three times. In his last three games he’s been held to under 70 receiving yards so that is why I’m prioritizing other players for our SNF DFS picks.

Sam LaPorta, TE, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

LaPorta had a rough go of it to kick off the 2024 NFL season. Sure, he likely gets slapped with the fantasy football “bust” label. However, he’s come on strong of late.

He’s found the end zone in back-to-back games and he now has seven straight games with at least six targets, so the volume is there. In that seven-game sample size he’s found the end zone five times. He’s priced fairly close to T.J. Hockenson of the Minnesota Vikings, but Hockenson’s usage has been dropping of late so I’m more likely to go with LaPorta who is at least trending in the right direction. And we typically don’t like using tight ends against the San Francisco 49ers, but LaPorta still went for 6-8-64-1 last week.

The Vikings have been stout against opposing tight ends all season, but they have given up some production the last two weeks to the position when they played the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Jalen Nailor, WR, Minnesota Vikings – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

Nailor is the perfect kind of high-upside value play we’re seeking for our Sunday Night Football DFS Playbook. His game log indicates as such and he should operate as the team’s WR3 for this game. He caught all five of his targets last week for 81 yards and a touchdown. He’ll likely make the optimal lineup with a similar stat line in this game with a high game total.

Nailor clearly has a low floor, but a high ceiling. Even when these two teams met back in Week 7, he caught 4-of-5 targets for 76 yards and didn’t find the end zone. The Lions secondary is in rough shape, having just surrendered 400 passing yards six days ago so there could be plenty of production to go around for everyone in this offense, and look at what opposing WR3’s have done against Detroit lately:

There is definitely potential for Nailor to put up a nice score for the second straight week.

Kalif Raymond, WR, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $200 | FanDuel: $5,000

Both DraftKings and FanDuel released pricing before we received final injury reports. Raymond was activated off IR on Saturday after he was a full participant so it doesn’t appear as if the foot injury will dog him at all in this game.

Tim Patrick has emerged in Raymond’s absence as an additional target for Jared Goff. But for a $200 punt, Raymond will likely draw plenty of rostership for the savings you get, especially because you can jam in so many studs on DraftKings by using him at just $200. When these teams met in Week 7, Raymond went for 3-4-39-1 which was good enough for 12.9 fantasy points.

Sione Vaki, RB, Detroit Lions – DraftKings: $200 | FanDuel: $6,000

I don’t really like the Lions “value” running backs tonight. I would rather go with Kalif Raymond simply because I think there’s a good chance he re-emerges as the WR3 for the Lions.

However, Vaki will be a decent leverage play among our SNF DFS picks in the value range. Why? If Craig Reynolds is unable to play due to his back injury, then Vaki is appealing as Jahmyr Gibbs’ backup. Right now I’d say it’s rather unlikely Reynolds is inactive because it doesn’t look like the team called Jermar Jefferson back from the practice squad. Currently, the signs point to Reynolds suiting up, but we’ll know officially 90 minutes before kickoff.

Keep an ear to the ground but if Reynolds is officially active then we’ll look to Raymond more as our favorite punt play in this value range, and we can also consider Reynolds but given what’s on the line for Detroit tonight, it wouldn’t surprise me if Gibbs handled an even heavier workload than normal.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

You can probably see where I’m going with this section for our SNF DFS picks. But with one of the highest totals we’ve seen all season (56.5 points), I’m laying off the D/ST’s and strictly building lineups in mind that this is a shootout. Sure, a pick six or a kick return for a touchdown can flip the narrative and help out either D/ST. But I’m also of the mindset that either D/ST can still return less than 10 fantasy points even with a D/ST touchdown. It’s a position of variance but one I’m likely going to avoid, especially since these team combined for 60 points in Week 7. The Vikings did get 11 fantasy points in that matchup while the Lions returned six. Tread carefully and play them as you see fit.

I am in favor of utilizing the kickers for a couple reasons. They correlate very well with offensive players and with an implied total over 55 points, we want as much offensive production in our builds as we can get.

Jake Bates is likely to get some volume. He’s also provided a very nice floor, rather than ceiling. In 11 games this year he returned between 8-12 fantasy points. Over his last five games he’s had a dozen field goal attempts and 20 extra point attempts. The Lions are incredibly efficient in the red zone. We know they can move the ball between the 20’s which we love when considering kickers, but the Lions tend to score at will which is why Bates tends to live right around 8-12 fantasy points, which is still fine for our NFL DFS Showdown lineups.

I might just be a bigger fan of Will Reichard for this game. He had a bit of a rough go of it last week. He missed two field goals, both from 40+ yards out. One hit the cross bar and another hit the upright. If he had made both of those kicks we’re looking at a 20+ fantasy point return. But even with the two misses, he still put up 11 fantasy points on DraftKings, which marks the third straight game with double-digit fantasy points. I do think Reichard has a better ceiling than Bates as we’ve seen him go over 12 fantasy points on three occasions this year, and as we just mentioned, he could’ve done that last week for the fourth time even if he had missed only one field goal attempt.

So again, I’m trying not to overthink these positions. We have a high game total with two of the best offenses in the league. The Lions defense is rather beat up and the Vikings secondary is one of the worst in the league. So I’m favoring the kickers over D/ST’s for the final NFL DFS Showdown Playbook of the regular season.

 

 

 

Vikings vs. Lions DFS Player Pool: SNF, 1/5

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