Sunday Night Football delivers an outstanding matchup featuring the Miami Dolphins visiting the Philadelphia Eagles in what could potentially be a high-scoring affair. The Dolphins enter this matchup at 5-1 with a record-setting offense, but those wins have come against very soft competition. The one competitive team they faced was the Buffalo Bills and Miami got waxed 48-20. This will be another stiff road test for Miami but one they can certainly win. The Eagles are also 5-1 and are coming off a fairly embarrassing loss to the New York Jets. But they also haven’t had too much of a difficult schedule, yet still probably stronger than Miami’s. One team has to come away with their second loss (unless they both tie) so let’s take a look at the top NFL DFS Showdown plays for Sunday night’s game!

 

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles

Spread: Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Over/Under: 51.5 Points

Weather: Mostly clear skies with temps in the low 50’s and cooling even more as the game progresses. Winds will consistently be blowing around 10-12 miles per hour, so they won’t impact aerial attacks too much.

Notable Injuries

Miami Dolphins

Philadelphia Eagles

NFL DFS MVP/Captain

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

Not sure what really needs to be said regarding Tyreek Hill as a candidate to be captain. In four-of-six games so far this year he’s gone for over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings. That’s the kind of ceiling we’re seeking for a captain and the Eagles have allowed eight touchdowns so far this season to opposing wide receivers. According to Pro Football Focus, Hill and Brandon Aiyuk are the only two players in the league to have a grade of at least 90 against both man and zone coverage and Hill leads all wide receivers since the start of 2022 with 3.64 yards per route run. The next closest is 2.69 YPRR and that belongs to A.J. Brown. We know Hill is likely Tua Tagovailoa’s first read on most pass plays and he’s become matchup proof. He’ll be popular and for good reason.

Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

I don’t normally play quarterbacks at captain. However, when they have rushing upside like Hurts does then I’m absolutely on board. Hurts has seven passing touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year. However, he does have five rushing touchdowns thanks to the Tush Push or Brotherly Shove, or whatever you want to call it. The Dolphins defense has really only been tested by Josh Allen. And in that matchup, Josh Allen threw for 320 yards, four touchdowns, and he ran for a touchdown as well. For all the hype around this Vic Fangio defense, they folded like a cheap suit against a legitimate team. And that could certainly be the case Sunday night. Even better news for Hurts is that Lane Johnson, who left last week’s game with an ankle injury, will likely be available for this game and that’s huge considering Johnson is the best right tackle in the game.

A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Brown only costs you $15,000 at Captain for this matchup. Considering Tyreek Hill is $3,000 more, this isn’t a bad discount when you consider they have similar ceilings. Brown only has two touchdowns on the season but both came in Week 5 against the Washington Commanders when he went for over 40 fantasy points on DraftKings. Brown has a 30% target share over the last month which is actually ahead of Tyreek Hill’s 29% and Brown has a 48% air yards share which does end up trailing Hill’s 52%. But still, we have players with similar upsides and yet one is $3,000 cheaper to play at Captain. Both will be popular and if building multiple lineups, you’ll want shares of both.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Smith isn’t my favorite Captain on the slate. He’s cooled off since scoring in each of the first two weeks. But there are just so many candidates on the slate that I wanted to put him in this section because this might actually be a leverage spot and he’s a smash play. We haven’t really heard Smith voice his displeasure with his role over the last month. There was A.J. Brown’s notable blow up on the sideline in Week 2. Then Dallas Goedert had his squeaky wheel game as well. Smith hasn’t been as vocal, but at a certain point he has to break out of this quiet streak he’s been on. He still has 25 targets over his last three games including 11 last week. He did have some brutal drops last week that kept him from scoring big. 

But to his credit, he owned it. Miami may concentrate on trying to take A.J. Brown away. Good luck with that. I still expect Smith to get a decent amount of targets so the coaching staff can keep him satisfied. There will be players in the next section that likely carry more exposure at Captain than Smith, but again, I’m just trying to emphasize there may be leverage here for a player with a ton of upside.

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins

Tua is definitely viable as a Flex in this matchup. But he doesn’t have the rushing upside that Hurts offers. Plus, on DraftKings, Tua averages just 20.1 fantasy points on the road compared to 25.3 at home. He has multiple-touchdown upside and this Eagles defense isn’t as strong as it was last season. They can be beaten even if they’ve limited three of their last four opposing quarterbacks to throw for under 250 yards. The Miami offense operates differently. They can beat you through the air and on the ground and if this game script is anything like the Buffalo game, then Tua will likely be in position to throw it over 35 times, and who knows, maybe he racks up more than seven rushing yards as well.

Raheem Mostert, RB, Miami Dolphins

By all means you can play Mostert at captain. I just can’t list everybody in that section. There are probably eight or nine players you can make an argument for at captain. We’re only six games into the season and Mostert already has 11 touchdowns this season. The downside with Mostert is that he has probably the most difficult matchup of any player in this game. The Eagles are tough to run on. They’ve yet to allow 70 rushing yards to opposing running backs, but he still has involvement in the passing game with 17 targets over his last four games. The Dolphins have some of the fastest pure runners in the league with Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert so it’s no surprise that even in a difficult matchup, we still have to like him in this spot. If you need a cheaper option for a player that will maybe get some work if Mostert needs a breather then Salvon Ahmed ($4,400) is viable in large-field Tournaments.

Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins

It’s been a relatively quiet season for Waddle but he has a touchdown in back-to-back games coming into this matchup. He had a 30% target share last week, but Waddle is now arguably the third option in this offense behind Tyreek Hill and whoever gets to run the ball. Remember that yards per route run metric I mentioned in the Tyreek Hill section? Well Waddle’s averaging 2.47 YPRR since the start of 2022 which is tied for sixth in the league. He’s fine in the Flex but we’ve seen other players with more upside that likely make better candidates at captain.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

And here we have another option you could potentially play up top. Swift has put up 16+ fantasy points on DraftKings in five straight games and he’s touched the ball at least 17 times per game in that span. Basically, he’s averaging a fantasy point per touch. He only has three touchdowns on the year, but he’s still involved and getting plenty of snaps on offense with 18 catches in his last six games. Swift leads the league with 225 rushing yards before contact this year. That’s a testament to how good this offensive line is. The Dolphins have been somewhat tough on opposing running backs, but they’ve yielded five touchdowns to the position and even Chuba Hubbard ran for 88 yards and a touchdown last week.

Dallas Goedert, Tight End, Philadelphia Eagles

If Lane Johnson was unavailable for this game, I probably could’ve seen a game script where Goedert was needed to block more. However, this looks like a decent spot for him and his price tag is not awful at $6,200 as a Flex play. The Dolphins gave up touchdowns to opposing tight ends in each of their first two games but have done well against the position since. Goedert rarely comes off the field. He has a 92% snap rate which is third among all tight ends in the league. Goedert had just one target in the first game of the season, but still maintains an 18.2% target share on the year and in four of his last five games he has at least seven targets. As is the case with most tight ends, he’s somewhat reliant on touchdowns but this could be a week he finds the end zone.

Kickers

Given that the total for this game is over 50 points, we should see plenty of offense. Both offenses should move the ball well, in theory. Whether they stall in the red zone or get a touchdown and an extra point, the kickers will be involved. Unfortunately for this game, both Jason Sanders ($5,200) and Jake Elliott ($4,800) are priced up because of the implied total. Sanders only has one field goal attempt in his last four games. The Dolphins offense is so potent and can break away for a big score, that they haven’t had too many drives stall in the red zone. And if they’re scoring touchdowns then Sanders won’t be worth the price tag if he’s only kicking extra points. Elliott is probably the better value even though $4,800 is still pretty costly. But he put up double-digit fantasy points in each game through the first five weeks with at least three field goal attempts in each matchup. Last week was his first dud, but this could be a spot where he goes for 10+ fantasy points again. But as always, if playing a quarterback at captain, it’s recommended you correlate the play with their kicker in the flex.

Defense/Special Teams

With an implied game total of 51.5 points and the Eagles favored by a field goal, this isn’t the best spot for D/ST’s. Both teams are projected for 20+ points and that can prove costly. The Dolphins defense has allowed 33 points per game on the road and over 370 yards per game. Keep in mind, they did play the Chargers and the Bills on the road. So, this matchup shapes up in a similar manner. The Dolphins also only have five takeaways on the year including zero in their last three games. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles are just $3,000 and they also don’t have a takeaway in their last three games. Neither D/ST is necessarily a “must play” in this matchup. However, I say this all the time in the NFL DFS D/ST Coach, this is a position of variance. A pick six or a kickoff return for a touchdown can flip the script and put either D/ST in the optimal lineup. Both are risky so I wouldn’t fault you if you faded both in this matchup. 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Braxton Berrios, WR, Miami Dolphins

He’s not the greatest cheap play. However, he does get a couple catches each game, but he hasn’t done much with them. He comes off the field in two-wide receiver sets but if Miami falls behind at any point, that game script benefits him and he could potentially see four or five targets. I almost prefer Durham Smythe ($1,600) a little bit more. Smythe has zero fantasy points the last two weeks but in competitive games he tends to be more involved and he’s run a route on 68%, 91%, and 66% of the offensive snaps in the last three games.

Olamide Zacchaeus, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

A lot of people are going to play Julio Jones ($2,000), who was signed last week and elevated from the practice squad. He’s more expensive than Zacchaeus and likely doesn’t run as many routes. He’s also 34 years old and may not see many reps. I doubt Zacchaeus loses too many reps to Julio and name recognition will probably draw more exposure to the aging veteran. I prefer Zacchaeus for leverage and because he likely has more familiarity with the playbook.

Jeff Wilson, RB, Miami Dolphins

Wilson was activated off IR and is listed as the backup to Raheem Mostert. He is only $200, and while he’s coming off IR and may not see a ton of reps, it won’t take him much to be a better point-per-dollar play than Salvon Ahmed. I imagine they may only use Wilson in short yardage situations. But those scenarios also include high-value red zone touches. He smashes his value even with a one-yard touchdown run. He will likely be very popular since pricing came out before he was activated off IR. We just need a few touches and some production to get value out of this dirt-cheap play.