We close out Week 16 with a matchup from the NFC as the Green Bay Packers host the New Orleans Saints. These two teams are heading in opposite directions. 

The Packers are on cruise control to the playoffs and the Saints, who have already been eliminated from the playoffs, are actually winning games of late but all they’re doing is hurting their selection spot for the 2025 NFL Draft. With that said, let’s take a look at our Saints vs. Packers DFS picks for the latest NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Monday Night Football Playbook; Saints vs. Packers Game Preview

The visiting New Orleans Saints have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, but they’ve struck inspiration since the organization fired Dennis Allen following their Week 9 loss to the Carolina Panthers. They’re 3-2 over their last five games and even went down to the wire against the Washington Commanders last week in a 20-19 loss.

Heading into this particular Monday Night Football game against the Packers, the Saints are incredibly beat up across the board and they will be shorthanded. They have already ruled out Derek Carr, Chris Olave, and Alvin Kamara. The first two aren’t necessarily surprises but the loss of Alvin Kamara will loom large in this matchup.

The Green Bay Packers enter this game 10-4 and they’re 8-2 over their last 10 games. Their only losses in that span have been at the hands of the Detroit Lions. Unfortunately, the Packers play in the NFC North. So even a win to get to 11-4 still puts them two games behind the Lions and Minnesota Vikings for the division lead with just two regular season games remaining. 

It seems as if the Packers are a lock to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team and we’ll try to formulate some excitement for this game with the latest Saints vs. Packers DFS picks.

 

 

 

Saints vs. Packers MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Packers -14 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Saints (+650)
    • Packers (-950)
  • Game Total: Over 42.5 (-112) / Under 42.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Packers -14.5 (-102)
  • Money Line:
    • Saints (+700)
    • Packers (-1100)
  • Game Total: Over 42.5 (-115) / Under 42.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Saints vs. Packers MNF, December 23rd

As of Monday morning, the current forecast for this game calls for snow up until about 5:00pm local time. That could change as this is Wisconsin in December. Fortunately, there isn’t a lot of wind in the forecast as wind gusts may reach about 12mph but overall, they’ll stay under 10mph. 

Temperatures will stay in the low 30’s for most of this game. So, if the snow does manage to stop just ahead of kickoff, we should have a clean, albeit chilly game in Lambeau.

Saints vs. Packers Notable Injuries & Inactives

As we mentioned at the top of the article the New Orleans Saints have already ruled out Derek Carr (hand), Chris Olave (concussion), and Alvin Kamara (groin). Bub Means has also been ruled out with an ankle injury and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is questionable with an illness.

The only noteworthy injuries to the Green Bay Packers are on defense. They’ve already ruled out Javon Bullard and Quay Walker. But the secondary could take further hits if Jaire Alexander and Corey Ballentine are inactive. Both are dealing with knee injuries and missed last week’s game. Fortunately, they did log full practice sessions on Saturday.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Monday Night Football, 12/23

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers - DraftKings: $11,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

The Packers have actually appeared on a Showdown slate three straight weeks, so we’ve written up Jacobs plenty this month. We made the argument for Jacobs in the Week 15 and Week 16 Showdown Playbook so you can reference those if you need to.

Plain and simple, Josh Jacobs gets volume and has plenty of touchdown equity. He has nine touchdowns in his last five games, and he’s scored over 20 fantasy points on DraftKings in all five contests.

The Packers have gone with a run heavy approach since Week 8 (they rank 29th in PROE since then according to Dataroma). And in the last couple Showdown Playbooks featuring the Packers we noted how they run the ball about 75% of the time when they get inside the 10-yard line. Since Week 7 the Saints are 28th in EPA/Rush and are allowing 4.77 yards per carry. 

With the Packers lined up as massive favorites for this game, it just feels like Jacobs finds the end zone once again.

Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

Miller is a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings, but it’s a Showdown slate at the end of the day. You should be able to make him work in your lineups if you’re so inclined to play him.

With Alvin Kamara ruled out for this matchup, Miller steps into a much larger role in this offense. My concerns with Miller are twofold. Can he handle the workload? And do the Packers just stack the box and show no respect for the passing game?

Miller only has 28 carries on the year. Per Fantasy Points Data and Dataroma, he does have a 7.1% explosive run rate, 0.36 missed tackles forced per attempt, and 2.96 yards after contact per attempt. Those are actually very strong metrics, but they’re do for regression because of the sample size. You’re essentially playing Miller because he’s the only Saints player we have confidence getting any volume in.

If Miller is unable to take the opportunity and run with it in this matchup, I imagine there is some work in store for Jamaal Williams as a value play.

Green Bay Packers D/ST – DraftKings: $6,200 | FanDuel: $9,000

This is such a fish play. Anytime you get a D/ST at potentially 8-10% field exposure at MVP/Captain we’ve officially entered the twilight zone. And the price tag on DraftKings is aggressive based on where we’ve seen previous D/ST’s. 

Part of me just wants to play Jacobs at Captain in every build and finds ways to make each lineup unique. However, for the purposes of this article we can entertain a D/ST at MVP/Captain.

The sportsbooks are giving this game a low total at around 42 points. The Packers are favored by two touchdowns so they’re giving the Saints an implied team total of roughly 14 points. I was someone that actually played Spencer Rattler on the Week 6 main slate. At $4,000 he returned 14.42 fantasy points on DraftKings, but there were some struggles with this kid.

On the year he’s completing less than 60% of his pass attempts and his instincts/decision making are worth being called into question. He has some rushing upside but lacks the confidence to know when it’s appropriate to escape the pocket. And he took 11 sacks in Weeks 6 and 7.

So yes, I fully acknowledge this is such a stupid play and the sharps scoff at this kind of recommendation. But it’s a Showdown slate and this is a position of variance. If making 20+ lineups, you can put the Packers at the top of your lineups in a couple builds.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

Love is perfectly fine and worth Flexing in almost any lineup. There are plenty of concerns regarding the ceiling he offers. He hasn’t gone over 25 fantasy points on DraftKings since Week 6 and that’s largely due to the Packers being so committed to running the ball of late. As mentioned in the Josh Jacobs section, the Packers rank 29th in PROE (pass rate over expected) since Week 8.

However, Love does still offer a good enough floor. He hasn’t attempted more than 30 passes in a game since prior to the team’s Week 10 bye. However, he has multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games and that’s putting him in contention for about 14-18 fantasy points. That’s not great, but it’s still fine as a flex option and this slate doesn’t strike me as one that’ll offer a ton of fantasy output.

Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

Due to the decrease in passing volume, I’m only highlighting two receivers from Green Bay. And a lot of what is in Reed’s section can be applied to the next player.

The Saints allow the fourth most yards after the catch per reception (5.5) and funny enough, among qualifying receivers, Reed averages the fourth most yards after the catch per reception (7.9). The Saints also struggle against pre-snap motion as they’ve allowed the second-most touchdowns on pre-snap motion since Week 8 and the Packers also love to put Reed in motion.

The downside is that Reed was WR6 from Weeks 1-9. Since then, he’s WR48 according to Underdog Fantasy. It’s definitely been a minute since we saw a big score from him, but he has arguably more touchdown equity than the next player we’re about to discuss.

Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

With less passing volume, I think we just need to take firm stands with the pass catchers we actually do target in this offense. Christian Watson obviously stands out. Per Fantasy Points Data, Watson is top 20 among qualified receivers in separation score (0.236) and win rate (30.6%).

The Saints don’t run a ton of man coverage (looks like about 32%) but Watson is crushing man coverage as he’s top 10 in yards per route run (3.66) and targets per route run (34%).

Passing volume is low for the Packers of late, but Watson could still get six or seven in this matchup, and he’s recorded a reception of 35+ yards in four of his last five games.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $9,500

MVS hasn’t practiced all week as he’s dealing with the perfect combination of an illness and a chest injury. It’s a bad look for the state of a franchise when the best receiver on your team, that hasn’t been ruled out yet, is MVS. But alas, we trudge forward.

With Rattler under center, he did try to get MVS going last week. Rattler took over in the second half of last week’s game and targeted MVS five times (Jake Haener targeted MVS just twice). They connected twice for receptions of 25 and 39 yards.

It’s not the greatest of analysis but it is rare that we potentially get a team’s WR1 at this kind of a price tag for a Showdown slate and it is worth acknowledging that the Green Bay secondary is a bit beat up and could be shorthanded for this game depending on how inactives play out.

Juwan Johnson, TE, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $9,000

With Rattler under center, there are two tight ends in play for New Orleans and the other will appear in the next section. Johnson only had three targets last week but all three came in the second half when Rattler took over.

Back in Week 6 when Rattler was the starter, Johnson caught all three of his targets for 48 yards. The next week, he received six targets from Rattler but only caught three of them. And then in Week 8 against the Chargers he caught three passes (on four targets) for 48 yards.

There isn’t necessarily much of a ceiling for either Johnson or Foster Moreau. But Rattler is a rookie quarterback that has shown a tendency to lean on his tight ends for shorter routes across the middle and the Packers won’t have Quay Walker for this game.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Kevin Austin, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $3,200 | FanDuel: $7,000

A lot of the value options for this game will likely come from the New Orleans side. I really like Austin. Casual players probably see the box score for the last two games and will avoid this play. Especially with two other cheap pass catchers available for New Orleans on this slate.

Austin is intriguing because he’s run plenty of routes the last two games with the Saints wide receiver room decimated by injuries. Austin only had two targets from Rattler in the second half last week, but he’s still a receiver that brings size and speed to this team. 

His tape looks really good, but he’s dogged by the fact his quarterbacks can’t lead him with the ball and that brings the defensive back into the play to make a tackle. So, I think this is a potential leverage option because the next two players will likely get more attention.

Foster Moreau, TE, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

I had to dig into my bag for this one. When looking at Moreau’s best games, or at least the most productive ones, he actually gets a few targets per game from Spencer Rattler.

In Week 6, when Rattler made his first start, Moreau caught both his targets for 54 yards. The next week he caught both his targets for 38 yards with Rattler under center again. And in garbage time last week, Moreau did catch a touchdown as time expired from Rattler to pull the Saints within a point of Washington.

It’s an odd pairing but Moreau’s floor is elevated a bit with Rattler under center and we’ve seen the young quarterback lean on his tight ends, as rookies tend to do.

Dante Pettis, WR, New Orleans Saints – DraftKings: $1,000 | FanDuel: $6,000

It’s not a lot to work with, and that is the case with a lot of players on the New Orleans Saints, but Dante Pettis had four targets in the second half of last week’s game when Spencer Rattler took over as the starting quarterback.

Obviously, it helps his value if MVS can’t go. But if the Saints are playing from behind in a trailing game script, then that likely means they’re throwing the ball more and we just saw Rattler try to get the ball into his hands a week ago. Pettis also gets work as a punt returner which does provide a little more upside at such a cheap price.

 

 

 

Saints vs. Packers DFS Player Pool, 12/23

Player Pool

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