Monday Night Football delivers a two-game slate for the third time this season. The first game kicks off on the East coast at 8:15pm ET featuring the Baltimore Ravens riding a four-game winning streak as they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing at home for the first time since Hurricane Milton went through the area about a week-and-a-half ago. I’m sure this game hits differently for the players and the community. Both teams are 4-2 and pose a serious threat in their respective conferences. This game has the higher total on this short slate so we can expect plenty of exposure to come from this inter-conference matchup. Here are the top Ravens vs. Buccaneers DFS picks!

 

 

 

NFL DFS Ravens vs. Buccaneers Monday Night Football Playbook

These two teams both sit at 4-2 with great chances of making the NFL playoffs. The Baltimore Ravens come in on a four-game winning streak and they’ve scored at last 28 points in all four wins. The offense is rolling and Lamar Jackson looks every bit of the Most Valuable Player we expected him to be, which makes sense since he’s a two-time winner of the award.

The defense hasn’t been much of a story, but you can mask those deficiencies so long as the team is winning. However, the defense has allowed 24.5 points per game, so it makes sense why we’re looking at a potential offensive extravaganza in Tampa. The Ravens have been difficult to run on, but you can throw on them and move the ball between the 20’s.

The hometown Buccaneers sit atop the NFC South and Baker Mayfield is playing some of the best football of his professional career. Chris Godwin has seen a resurgence as he’s been moved back into the slot role more with Dave Canales departing for the Carolina Panthers. Similar to Baltimore, the defense for Tampa Bay has allowed 23.5 points per game but they’ve flashed more upside which we’ll dive into later in the article as we finalize our Ravens vs. Buccaneers DFS picks…

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Buccaneers MNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-110) 
  • Money Line:
    • Ravens (-192)
    • Buccaneers (+160)
  • Game Total: Over 50 (-112) / Under 50 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Ravens (-188)
    • Buccaneers (+158)
  • Game Total: Over 49.5 (-110) / Under 49.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Ravens vs. Buccaneers MNF, October 21st

We don’t have many weather concerns for our MNF DFS picks, but it’s always worth mentioning that it’s Florida. In general, it’s just very humid but only 70% for this game. Temperatures will be in the mid-70’s throughout the evening with partly cloudy skies and winds not exceeding 10 miles per hour.

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Notable Injuries & Inactives

The Ravens will be without some depth pieces as Rashee Ali and Deonte Harty have been ruled out on the offensive side of the ball. The defense will be without Malik Harrison and Broderick Washington is doubtful as well. 

By comparison, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers typically give a more thorough injury report and that was very evident for this game. They’ve already ruled out Jamel Dean, Payne Durham, Rakim Jarrett, and Kameron Johnson. A big player to monitor will be Vita Vea. He didn’t practice this week with a hamstring injury and he’s officially questionable for this game. If he’s unable to suit up then you can pretty much take the over on any Derrick Henry rushing prop. Mike Evans is considered a game time decision, but it does sound as if there’s optimism that he plays.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Showdown MVP/Captain for Ravens vs. Buccaneers Monday Night Football, 10/21

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $17,000

When we pay for Lamar we get such a great floor/ceiling combination. Even in his worst performance this year on DraftKings he still returned 17.38 fantasy points. In his last four games, however, he’s put up at least 22 fantasy points. We know there’s the rushing upside. He’s rushed for at least 40 yards in every game so far this season. But the passing numbers stand out as well.

He has back-to-back games with 300+ passing yards and he’s averaging 8.69 yards per attempt (third in the NFL) in addition to 0.73 fantasy points per drop back, which is first in the league.

The Bucs pass rush has been better of late, but Lamar can scramble and escape the pocket on his own. And this defense still bleeds points and yardage. If Vita Vea is ruled out, then that can only upgrade Lamar in this spot.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $16,500

Similar to Lamar, if Vita Vea is ruled out then it’s arguably the biggest upgrade for Derrick Henry. Henry already sees a ton of volume so if one of the best defensive tackles in the game is inactive, then it’s wheels up for Henry.

Henry already has nine touchdowns on the season and in three of his last four games he’s touched the ball 24+ times and in each of those performances he’s gone for well over 100 rushing yards. He’s currently on pace for 1,994 rushing yards but we’ll see if he can sustain the heavy workload and avoid injury.

When Vita Vea missed Tampa’s Week 3 matchup against Denver, the Broncos were able to tally 136 yards on the ground and we know Henry can put up that kind of total in his sleep. Even with Vea, the Bucs have allowed opposing running backs to rush for 4.72 yards per carry.

Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $12,500

For all the talent the Ravens have in their secondary, they certainly give up a ton of production. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, the Ravens allow the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and that translates to the second-most out of the slot. And that’s where Godwin just so happens to line up on 63% of his routes. Godwin also averages about 2.81 yards per route run while Evans is at 1.81 YPRR.

Godwin has been a volume machine and he already has five touchdowns this year which matches his total across 32 games from the 2022 and 2023 seasons. In PPR formats, he’s averaging 0.63 points per route run and he has a 15.2% first down per route run rate. So Baker Mayfield is looking at him when it matters most and he’s getting the big gains.

He has at least eight targets in all but one game so far this year. With Mike Evans a little hobbled at the moment, Godwin is locked in as the WR1 in Tampa’s offense.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $12,500

We’ve seen three spike weeks and three underwhelming weeks from Flowers, but this is a great spot for him and he’s been en fuego of late. Over his last two games he has 16 receptions on 21 targets for 243 yards and it’s surprising that he has just one touchdown on the season.

The coverage of the Bucs may play to Flowers’ strengths more than usual. Pre Dataroma, the Bucs deploy Cover 3 at a 42.8% rate, which is fourth highest in the league. Flowers is averaging 3.81 yards per route run, 35% target per route run, and a 40% first-read target share against Cover 3.

This might be a play that goes underplayed at Captain given the relative upside of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, so this is a spot I would say we could be overweight on.

 

 

 

Mid-Tier & DFS Value Plays for Monday

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $13,000

Evans is a bit like Zay Flowers in that he has three dud weeks and three spike weeks. I’m keeping him out of the Captain picks because he is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Evans lines up at the perimeter for 67% of his routes and the Ravens bleed points to perimeter receivers almost as badly as they do to slot receivers. Evans, when healthy, is also a massive red zone target hog. He already has four red zone touchdowns on the year so if he does suit up for the Bucs, he’s an easy candidate to score if the Bucs get deep into Baltimore’s territory.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,500

It’s hard to leave Mayfield out of the above section, but I try to cap it at four players at the most per Showdown Playbook. But Mayfield is arguably a core play for this slate at the flex. 

He’s second in the NFL in passer rating and he’s averaging 7.88 yards per attempt, which ranks sixth in the NFL. He’s fourth among quarterbacks with 0.63 fantasy points per drop back. He correlates incredibly well with any of his pass catchers at Captain and he has nine touchdowns in his last three games, and in two of those he collected the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,500

Rachaad White is still hobbled by a foot injury and he picked a bad time because Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker have started to take over the backfield. We’ll go with Irving here and then list Tucker in the Dart Throw Bargains section…

Irving doesn’t see a lot of usage in the passing game. However, he’s far more efficient with the ball in his hands than White. Irving is averaging 5.7 yards per carry while White is at 3.7 YPC. He’s coming off a game where he had 105 all-purpose yards last week and he should see 10-12 touches in this game as well. 

Skip on down to the Sean Tucker section if you need some context regarding the usage between the two from last week’s game against the Saints…

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $9,000

For what it’s worth, Cade Otton is a great play as well with 27 targets across his last four games. But I’ve already written up three Bucs players in this section and feel as if we should diversify the Mid-Tier and Value Plays section.

It’s definitely been a slow burn for Mark Andrews this season. He had the horrific start with just nine targets through the first four games of the season. Over the last two weeks, it hasn’t been elite, but there have been signs of life. He’s caught seven-of-nine targets for 121 yards and he found the end zone last week.

I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking the savings and pivoting to Otton as the Ravens have been a good matchup for opposing tight ends. But both are affordable and even have some touchdown upside.

 

 

 

NFL DFS Dart Throw Bargains

Sean Tucker, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

Tucker shocked everyone last week and even ended up in the optimal lineup of last week’s Milly Maker lineup at about 0.01% ownership. He touched the ball 17 times and totaled 192 yards and scored twice.

But let’s add some context, shall we? In the first half of last week’s game, when the game was still somewhat competitive, Bucky Irving had a 74% snap rate and 86% running back rush share rate. Tucker only had one carry in the first half. So most of his production came very late in the game during garbage time.

But he’s still talented and likely earned some work in this week’s game. Keep in mind, Tucker went undrafted in 2023 due to a heart condition but probably would’ve been a Day 2 pick otherwise. I don’t think Tucker cuts into Irving’s workload. If anything, he may eat into White’s but we’ll have to monitor inactives for this game.

Sterling Shepard, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

Shepard hasn’t really popped off, however he’s seen his role grow over the last three games with seven receptions on 11 targets in that span. He only has 78 receiving yards but does provide a decent floor at a cheap price tag. He’ll likely be a low-owned value option on the two-game slate, but I do like what he provides at $3,000 on DraftKings for Showdown contests.

Shepard likely only sees work in three-wide receiver sets but he runs 81% of his routes on the perimeter so he has upside, especially if Evans is inactive or limited in any capacity.

Nelson Agholor, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $2,800 | FanDuel: $6,500

Agholor, like Shepard, only sees the field for three-wide receiver sets. And if I’m being completely transparent, Rashod Bateman is a better play. However, Bateman is priced up so he’ll make the player pool below but I’m leaning towards Agholor as a decent value option.

Agholor does line up in the slot for 49% of his routes so he may see coverage from Tykee Smith, a rookie third-round pick in April’s draft who is having a pretty strong year, but the Ravens secondary, in general, has been weak. Over their last two games they’ve allowed four opposing receivers to put up 14 fantasy points. Agholor’s a good value punt that may not carry significant ownership on either slate.

 

 

 

MNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Given the high total for this game, does anyone feel good about playing either D/ST? The Ravens have not returned double-digit fantasy points in any game this season. But there are some bright spots for this D/ST. They have 17 sacks in their last five games and they’re a nightmare to run on, surrendering just 59 yards per game on the ground. But they also only have five takeaways through six games and the Bucs offense has been cooking of late.

The Bucs have a little more upside, but they’re going against the best offense in the league. The Bucs had just two sacks and three takeaways in Weeks 1-3. But over their last three games they have 15 sacks and six takeaways while returning double-digit fantasy points in two of those games. They’ve allowed 63 points over their last two games. Play either defense at your own risk as we should see plenty of offense in this game.

The higher total correlates better for us to play kickers. Obviously, we can’t play the kickers on the two-game slate. However, for the Showdown slate we should look to go here over the D/ST’s. The kicker position has been priced up this season and that’s led to the kickers going under-owned.

Justin Tucker has delivered 13 fantasy points in back-to-back games with five field goals and eight extra point conversions in that span. He’s regarded as one of the best kickers of all time and correlates well in the flex with any Baltimore player at Captain. And as wild as it seems, for this Showdown slate, Tucker is worth some consideration for Captain.

The same can be said for Chase McLaughlin who has provided a consistent floor. In five-of-six games this year, McLaughlin has returned at last nine fantasy points. He’s been perfect on all 11 of his field goal attempts and is 19-for-20 on his extra point attempts. In four games this year he’s even converted on a field goal over 50 yards. Both kickers are pricy on this slate but since both teams have implied totals of 23+ points, they might just be better plays than the D/ST’s.

 

 

 

Ravens vs. Buccaneers DFS Player Pool, 10/21

Player Pool

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