We close out Week 17 with a matchup straight out of the NFC featuring the Atlanta Falcons taking on the Washington Commanders. This game will feature a pair of rookie quarterbacks as Jayden Daniels has taken the league by storm with his outstanding play for Washington. And more recently, Michael Penix made his first career start a week ago and got the win over the New York Giants. This game also has some playoff implications for both squads so it should be a good one! Let’s take a look at the latest Falcons vs. Commanders DFS picks for Sunday Night Football!

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Commanders DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 12/29

The Atlanta Falcons are fresh off a much-needed victory over the Giants in Week 16. Was it a layup game? Sure, but they aren’t complaining. The win gave them back the lead in the NFC South as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a surprising loss against the Dallas Cowboys last week, thus ending their four-game winning streak.

Michael Penix will certainly be tested in his first road matchup and it’s coming in primetime. So last week was a good opportunity for him to get his feet wet against one of the worst teams in the league. But now he’ll go against a playoff contender in Washington. He only attempted 27 passes in Week 16 and didn’t throw for any touchdowns. Perhaps in this matchup he’ll be asked to do more as the Falcons look to stay in front in the NFC South.

As things stand heading into Sunday’s slate of games, the Commanders have a strong hold on the seven-seed in the NFC playoff picture. Despite Atlanta having the worse record, the Commanders are currently being relegated to Wild Card status. But this isn’t a team any other organization should want to see in the playoffs.

Jayden Daniels is coming off arguably the biggest game of his rookie campaign. Sure, the Philadelphia Eagles lost Jalen Hurts, but Daniels threw five touchdown passes and added over 80 rushing yards against a defense that was trending in the right direction. Hopefully we see some fireworks in this matchup as it’s also a bit of a revenge game for Washington’s head coach, Dan Quinn.

Let’s get into our Falcons vs. Commanders DFS picks and lineup building strategies with the latest Sunday Night Football DFS Playbook!

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Commanders SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Commanders -3.5 (-108)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (+150)
    • Commanders (-180)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-112) / Under 46.5 (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Commanders -3.5 (-105)
  • Money Line:
    • Falcons (+142)
    • Commanders (-168)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-115) / Under 46.5 (-105)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Falcons vs Commanders SNF, December 29th

Despite this game being played in Landover, Maryland in late December, the temperatures won’t be terrible. Temps will start, and likely stay, in the low 60’s throughout the game with rather light winds at 10-12mph. We do need to monitor rain for this game, however. Showers will potentially roll in around 5:00pm local time and likely linger throughout the evening which could lead to some slick conditions.

 

Buccaneers vs Packers Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 17

The Atlanta Falcons actually have a relatively clean bill of health for our SNF DFS picks. The only two players that have been officially ruled out are Kevin King and Antonio Hamilton, and both players largely serve as depth pieces for the secondary.

Because of the weird week with the holidays, the Commanders didn’t have their full complement of practice sessions. Terry McLaurin was a bit hobbled with an ankle injury, but he is good to go for this game. Defensively, the Commanders will be without Marshon Lattimore who re-aggravated his hamstring injury last week in a rather forgetful game where he allowed a touchdown and took three pass interference penalties. Dyami Brown has also been ruled out for Washington which might open the door for some value among our SNF DFS picks.

A big addition for the defense could be the return of Jonathan Allen who hasn’t played since Week 6 due to a partial pectoral tear. However, he was activated off IR on Saturday and could suit up for this matchup.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $11,800 | FanDuel: $15,500

This is truly one of the most expensive price tags we’ve seen this season for a player on DraftKings. And rightfully so because last week we really saw what the ceiling was for Daniels. On the season he’s completed 69.7% of his passes for 3,300+ yards and 22 touchdown passes. He’s also added 737 rushing yards and six touchdowns on the ground.

The upside is massive and we love targeting quarterbacks with rushing upside on Showdown slates. He has 14 total touchdowns in his last four games and is less than 80 rushing yards away from passing Robert Griffin’s rushing totals from his rookie season. The Falcons defense has played better of late, but they still surrender a lot of fantasy production to opposing quarterbacks and they haven’t been tested by a good offense their last two games.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $16,000

He’s the most expensive option on the FanDuel board, which is a bit odd. From an historical perspective we typically see wide receivers and quarterbacks at the optimal MVP/Captain. But to each their own. Bijan is a force to be reckoned with and he’s having a phenomenal season to the tune of 1,600+ total yards and 11 touchdowns as well.

This is also a volume play and while he only has five receptions in his last three games, he still has 56 total on the season and he’s touched the ball 23+ times in four straight games.

The Commanders are okay against the run. The defensive numbers are slightly inflated because in two of their last five games they allowed 439 total rushing yards to the Eagles. In between those two games against Philly, they gave up 69 rushing yards to the Saints, 35 to the Titans, and 91 to the Cowboys.

With a rookie quarterback under center, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Falcons took another run-heavy approach and fed Bijan the ball 25+ times.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $14,000

McLaurin is the third-most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel and he’s finally having the season we knew he was capable of with a competent quarterback. In his first five seasons in the NFL, McLaurin had a total of 25 touchdown receptions, but only 18 over his last four years.

As far as the 2024 season goes, McLaurin has a dozen touchdown receptions and already has 1,000+ receiving yards with two games to play. Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin have the highest passer rating (140.0) among quarterback-pass catcher pairings since Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski in 2012.

This is shaping up to be a pretty solid matchup for McLaurin. Atlanta has struggled to defend receivers and A.J. Terrell hasn’t been great this season. Even last week while covering Malik Nabers, he still allowed seven receptions for 68 yards and he has really struggled to cover the opposing offense’s WR1.

The Falcons have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season, including the most points to perimeter receivers which is where McLaurin lines up over 80% of the time. With Atlanta also allowing 20 touchdowns to receivers, it’s possible McLaurin gets his 13th touchdown Sunday night and breaks the record for most receiving touchdowns in franchise history.

Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

Without Marshon Lattimore, the only concern for London will be passing volume from Penix. London will see a lot of coverage from Benjamin St. Juste and it’s well documented how bad he is at all times. The Commanders utilize a lot of Cover 1 and Cover 3, and London has respectively seen target shares of 31.3% and 20.1% against those shells.

Even last week when Penix made his debut, he still looked London’s way on nearly one-third of his pass attempts. The Commanders have had their up’s and down’s this season defending the aerial attack. But if St. Juste is assigned to London, then we have to upgrade him in a big way for our SNF DFS picks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Play

Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,000

B-Rob was terrible last week. He likely killed several fantasy football managers and others who had him in Best Ball. He touched the ball 12 times a week ago against the Eagles and finished with 41 total yards, but he also lost two fumbles.

Given the playoff implications for this game, it would be surprising if Washington punished him for last week’s atrocities. He should maintain the lead back role and get 15+ carries. But opposing offenses attempt, on average, 26.1 rush attempts per game and you know Daniels will account for some of those.

The Falcons give up just 4.3 yards per rush attempt which is top 10 in the NFL and since their Bye week they’re allowing about 70 rushing yards per game. On paper it’s a tough matchup, but he’s still a staple in this offense and should redeem himself for last week’s disappointing performance.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Michael Penix, QB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $8,800 | FanDuel: $12,500

Penix is mostly being listed in the article because he’s the starting quarterback who will likely be in a negative game script. With that said, he’s still a rookie and it’s a moderately difficult challenge on the road and potentially in the elements.

But he still has weapons around him. The ground game can alleviate some pressure with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. And if they need to throw then they can utilize those two or Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Ray-Ray McCloud, or Kyle Pitts (haha, yeah right).

There is talent here, but he lacks a ton of experience at the NFL level because he’s getting his start months later than the likes of Daniels, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Bo Nix. But it is worth remembering he threw for 4,200+ yards and 33 touchdowns last year at the University of Washington. I’d only play him at the Flex where you can correlate him with a teammate at Captain.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $11,000

Mooney did come very close to making the Core Plays section but passing volume was down last week so I’m a bit hesitant. At least he managed to catch five-of-six targets for 82 yards after he failed to catch his only target from Kirk Cousins in Week 15.

But he has a few things he’s playing for in this game. He’s currently just 45 yards shy of his second season with 1,000 receiving yards. And as we know, he is a deep threat with big play ability and we give preferential treatment to those players on Showdown slates.

I do have concerns Penix may not throw enough but that was the case last week and he had six targets. The high upside certainly makes him eligible as a Captain/MVP play but there’s variance with this play because he does possess a low floor as well. Tread carefully, my friends.

Olamide Zaccheaus, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

Zaccheaus has been coming on strong of late, which has led to a price increase on DraftKings. $6,400 is a tough sell for a guy like Zaccheaus, who hasn’t done much in his career. But for an undrafted player, he’s certainly hung around and made a nice career for himself.

To that point, there is a revenge game in play for Zaccheaus who played with the Falcons from 2019-2022. He comes into this contest with three straight games of at least three receptions and he has 15 targets in his last three games.

He’s clearly a better value on FanDuel but the Commanders have an implied team total of 25 points and coming off a game where he had eight targets, they may just look to keep him involved.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

Wedged nicely between both D/ST’s on DraftKings, we have Tyler Allgeier who is the backup to Bijan Robinson who will see a nice workload. However, in his last two games Allgeier has touched the ball a dozen times in each contest. And over his last four games he has at least nine touches in each game.

He does benefit more from a game script where the Falcons blow out the opposition. That likely won’t be the case Sunday night. However, with Penix under center last week for his debut, Allgeier still touched the ball a dozen times, but it was definitely a blowout. Bijan probably gets 25+ touches once again but I don’t believe Atlanta necessarily wants Penix throwing the ball a lot so Allgeier is in play if he gets 8-10 touches again. But for him to really pay off we likely need a touchdown.

Jamison Crowder, WR, Washington Commanders – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,500

Up until Week 15, most of us probably forgot Crowder was even in the league. But he came up huge last week against the Eagles catching a pair of touchdowns, including the game winner.

Now he only had two receptions (both for scores) for 15 yards, but he has a couple things working in his favor for this matchup. For starters, we know the Falcons struggle to defend the air game and A.J. Terrell, while not great this year, likely shadows Terry McLaurin. And Dyami Brown has been ruled out for this game. So there just might be additional work for Zaccheaus and Crowder.

Luke McCaffrey is in play if you are in need of a cheaper pass catcher, but he’s just been such a non-factor this season. But at the end of the day, it’s a Showdown slate and anyone in this range is likely optimal if they find the end zone.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

If Jonathan Allen is able to go in this game, that’s a significant upgrade for Washington’s D/ST. Washington gives up points 25.9 points per game on the road, but they are a little better at home where they only allow 20.9 points per game. And they are still going against a rookie quarterback who could be throwing a little bit more in a trailing game script. They’ve only returned double-digit fantasy points just twice all year and the last time was back in Week 7. The big concern will be containing Bijan Robinson. Remember, we do need sacks and turnovers from our D/ST’s to raise both the floor and ceiling. So if Penix only attempts 25-30 passes, and they give Robinson and Allgeier a combined ~35 carries then that really limits the upside with this play.

Atlanta’s D/ST is also a tough sell simply because of the matchup. But to Atlanta’s credit, they’ve been blitzing and generating more pressure on opposing offenses. Through Week 11 they only had 10 sacks. Following their bye week, over their last four games they’ve gotten after the quarterback more and have 16 sacks in that span. That’s resulted in seven takeaways as well and they’ve returned double-digit fantasy points in three of those games. But they are road underdogs and they haven’t faced too many quarterbacks with Jayden Daniels’ mobility. I’m likely off Atlanta in this matchup, but I’m not over the moon about Washington either. Luckily, we have other value options on the board that may have a nice ceiling.

The kickers once again likely go under owned because of their pricing and the value plays available to us. Neither Riley Patterson nor Zane Gonzalez are their team’s primary kickers. But injuries paved the way for opportunities. Patterson returned a dozen fantasy points last week but could’ve had more as he went 2-for-3 on field goal attempts. Atlanta has a team total of 21.5 points which is okay, but not great when you consider the conditions for Sunday night.

Zane has appeared in four games this season and has attempted just five field goals. To put it simply, Washington just scores too many touchdowns. In the four games Gonzalez has appeared as the team’s kicker he has the previously mentioned five field goal attempts but 14 extra point attempts. Washington is loaded with big plays and they’re efficient in the red zone. However, I will note that from a lineup construction standpoint, kickers do correlate well with quarterbacks at MVP/Captain and that’s a selling point when building lineups with Daniels at the top.

 

 

 

Falcons vs. Commanders DFS Player Pool: SNF, 12/29

Player Pool

$ Tier {{pos.alias}}

Stacks

{{stack.team.name}} {{player.name}}
DraftKings {{player.fantasy.price.value[8]}}-
Fanduel {{player.fantasy.price.value[6]}}-