We close out Week 16 with a matchup straight out of the NFC featuring the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Dallas Cowboys. While it may seem as if these two organizations are heading in opposite directions, this game does have postseason implications for both. With only three weeks remaining in the regular season, every game means something and this one is no different. Let’s take a look at the storylines and matchups for our Buccaneers vs. Cowboys DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 12/22

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come to town riding a four-game winning streak and they’ve taken the lead in the NFC South. The Atlanta Falcons fumbled away the division lead and the Bucs have taken advantage despite being a little short-handed on offense at times. But Bucky Irving returned to form last week. Tampa now flaunts a nice one-two punch in the running game.

Mike Evans is once again having a classic Mike Evans season and he’s on his way to another 1,000-yard season despite missing a few games. This matchup for Evans is another prime opportunity for a big game, similar to what we saw last week. But Tampa will also be without a key offensive option so that’ll open the door for value pass catchers in the offense.

The Dallas Cowboys aren’t officially eliminated from playoff contention, but they’re currently sitting at 6-8 and need a little help. They’ve won two of their last three games and the offense has done just fine since losing Dak Prescott. Defensively, there have been struggles and they can’t seem to stop the run. Against Tampa’s rushing duo they could have their hands full.

But for we cap off a great Week 16 slate of games ready to crush some Showdown contests on DraftKings and FanDuel. Here are the top plays and lineup building strategies for the Buccaneers vs. Cowboys DFS picks!

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Buccaneers -4.5 (-110)
  • Money Line:
    • Buccaneers (-225)
    • Cowboys (+185)
  • Game Total: Over 48.5 (-108) / Under 48.5 (-112)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Buccaneers -3.5 (-118)
  • Money Line:
    • Buccaneers (-200)
    • Cowboys (+168)
  • Game Total: Over 48.5 (-108) / Under 48.5 (-112)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Buccaneers vs Cowboys SNF, December 22nd

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment so there are currently no weather concerns.

 

Buccaneers vs Packers Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 16

The Buccaneers will be short-handed on both sides. Defensively they’ve already ruled out Antoine Winfield K.J. Britt is doubtful with an ankle injury while Mike Edwards is questionable as he nurses a hamstring injury. On the offensive side they’ve already ruled out Cade Otton and rookie receiver Kameron Johnson.

Most of Dallas’ injury report consisted of players on defense. They’ve already ruled out Trevon Diggs which is a bit of a blow to the secondary. Additionally, Eric Kendricks, Nick Vigil, Jourdan Lewis, and Juanyeh Thomas are all questionable as well. 

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $10,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Evans put up a gaudy stat line in Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers to the tune of nine receptions on 11 targets for 159 yards and two touchdowns. Evans is now 251 yards away from his 11th straight season with 1,000 receiving yards. Can he get there on Sunday? It’s certainly possible but unlikely. The good news is that Baker Mayfield is likely to force feed him targets.

There’s no Cade Otton in this matchup and the Dallas Cowboys should 100% focus on taking away Evans in this matchup. However, the Dallas secondary is beat up in their own right. But Evans is an absolute stud that can pop off for 20+ fantasy points any week. On the season he has a 26.1% first read target share, 0.139 first downs per route run, and he averages 0.65 fantasy points per route run. Despite missing three games he still has nine touchdowns this year and has double-digit targets in two of his last three games.

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $10,400 | FanDuel: $15,000

Who needs Dak Prescott? CeeDee Lamb certainly doesn’t! Since Cooper Rush took over at quarterback, efficiency has taken a slight hit for Lamb, but he’s delivering the fantasy goods through volume. Rush took over as the starter in Week 9. In five of the seven games since then, Lamb has double-digit targets.

In fact, a lot of his metrics are simply off the charts. Lamb has 1,089 receiving yards on the season and 499 of those came after the catch. He has a 32.2% first read target share and 0.51 fantasy points per route run. It also helps that Antoine Winfield has been ruled out because the Cowboys move him all over the field and if he can get behind the secondary then he’s off to the races. The Bucs allow 247.7 passing yards per game so Lamb should absolutely be able to pad the stats Sunday night.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,500

I have concerns. We all should. But let’s start with the positives! From a fantasy perspective, Mayfield is an absolute treat. Per DraftKings scoring, in 6-of-14 games this year he’s returned at least 27 fantasy points. And he hasn’t even hit the 300-yard bonus on DraftKings since Week 8.

But there’s clearly variance here. And his performances of late could have been better. Last week he threw for 288 yards. In Weeks 12 and 14 he was less than 10 passing yards away from the 300-yard bonus. So, he’s always a guy with a very high ceiling for fantasy.

But my concerns are with volume and ball security. He’s gone six straight games without attempting 35+ passes. To be fair, the Bucs are on a four-game winning streak and they weren’t really “pushed” in those games. Ball security is also a problem because in his last five games he has five interceptions and eight fumbles (two lost).

At the end of the day, this is still a Showdown slate so we’re chasing the ceiling without much regard for the downside. Because of this format, I’m still happy to play him at the top of my lineups.

Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

I’m a big fan of Bucky Irving on almost any Showdown slate and he looked great last week. In Week 15, against a difficult Chargers defense, Irving had 15 carries for 117 yards. He’s efficient and he can make a lot happen for himself.

According to Fantasy Points Data, Bucky is top five among qualified running backs in terms of yards per carry (5.6), explosive run rate (7.2%), missed tackles forced per attempt (0.26), and yards after contact per attempt (3.26).

He now draws a Cowboys defense that has been beaten on the ground many times this year and allow 4.8 yards per carry which ranks bottom five in the NFL. I’m looking at Bucky to continue to be “the guy” in the Bucs backfield and I like him to find the end zone tonight.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Play

Rico Dowdle, RB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,000

Rico Dowdle has been an absolute stud the last three weeks. He doesn’t have much involvement in the passing game. However, he now has four straight games with 19+ touches and there’s no competition in the backfield.

He’s gone for over 100 yards in three straight games and in that sample size he ranks first among running backs in rushing yards (392), yards after contact (283), runs for 10+ yards (14), and missed tackles forced (16). Those last two are huge for me because my biggest issue all season with Dowdle was what he was failing to do after contact.

So what’s keeping him from being in the section above? Simply put, the matchup is brutal. On the year, the Bucs allow the 11th fewest rushing yards per game (109.2) and only 67 yards per game over their last three contests. Volume is still in his favor but with Vita Vea plugging up the running lanes, I will keep expectations in check for Dowdle.

Jalen McMillan, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $7,000 | FanDuel: $10,000

This one might raise some eyebrows but given the landscape of the Tampa offense I feel great about McMillan on Sunday. Over his last two games his seen first read target rates of 26.7% and 22.7% respectively. And in those two games he’s seen yards per route run (YPRR) rates of 2.19 and 3.26 and in those two games he’s totaled nine receptions for 134 yards and three touchdowns.

Since Week 13 he’s also top 15 among qualified receivers in separation and route win rate per Fantasy Points Data. He’s flat out crushing it and while Evans gets a lot of the love, McMillan has been making noise of late.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Cooper Rush, QB, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

I was very tempted to list Rush as a Core Play and even as a Captain/MVP candidate for the reason that his price is rather suppressed for a starting quarterback. But for now, I’ll leave him in this section because his production is inconsistent.

He was incredibly efficient last week against the Carolina Panthers. He completed 18 of just 29 pass attempts for 214 yards but he also had three touchdown passes. Now he gets a matchup against the Buccaneers, without Antoine Winfield, who already allow over 20 fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

Ironically, he doesn’t offer much rushing upside but he’s coming off a very strong game in Week 15 and the Bucs allow nearly 250 passing yards per game.

Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $8,000 | FanDuel: $11,000

White is definitely a good leverage play off Bucky Irving, but I will concede that he is taking a backseat to Tampa’s rookie running back. With Bucky looking healthy last week we saw White take the majority stake of a 60/40 snap share, but I think it’ll be a bit more balanced Sunday night.

I’d say that a good approach is to play them together in any lineups you build out for 5:1 Tampa stacks assuming they win this game easily. Despite seeing fewer snaps last week, White did still manage to touch the ball 17 times.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $4,800 | FanDuel: $8,000

The targets haven’t been as fruitful for the Cowboys starting tight end since he returned from concussion. He has five receptions on 10 targets in his last two games but the yardage has been minimal so he’s discounted on both sites.

I don’t mind the discount because he can easily pay off the price tag. But the Buccaneers deploy a lot of 1-High coverage which typically isn’t great news for tight ends. Ferguson’s only seeing a 19% TPRR and 1.14 YPRR against single high. This is the same defensive scheme that limited Brock Bowers to three catches for 49 yards and allowed Michael Mayer to have a big game. So perhaps we keep Luke Schoonmaker in mind?

Jalen Tolbert, WR, Dallas Cowboys – DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $8,000

For the Dallas pass catchers, we really don’t have much confidence outside of CeeDee Lamb. Tolbert ran just 62.9% of the routes in Week 14 and just 40% last week. This drop coincides with the return of Brandin Cooks so again, we’re struggling to find value with the home team. But like last week, Tolbert did find the end zone but that’s the only reception he has in the last two weeks.

The good news is that the Bucs are great against the run and rather weak against the pass. And a trailing game script does elevate a lot of these value options including KaVontae Turpin, who also sees work as a return man.

Sterling Shepard, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – DraftKings: $3,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

If there’s one person I think can step into a larger role with Cade Otton out, I think it could be Shepard. He largely lines up in the slot and had three consecutive games with at least six targets in Weeks 12-14. Last week he was playing through a foot injury, but he is cleared for this matchup Sunday night.

Another positive is that Trey Palmer is dealing with an illness late in the week and he’s a player who has already seen his role decrease over the past month. So Shepard seems like a good bet to get work out of the slot even if he does come off the field for two-receiver sets.

The Remaining Tampa Bay Tight Ends

I know there will be questions about the Tampa Bay tight ends with Cade Otton ruled out. Truthfully, I have absolutely no idea if any of them step into the Otton role. I’m sure Payne Durham, Ko Kieft, and Devin Culp all see more snaps, but they could also be asked to block as well.

The good news is that all three are $200 on DraftKings. I can’t imagine you really need the salary relief to play these three on FanDuel but again, all three are under $6,000. The significant part on DraftKings is that you can do a lot with a $200 play even if they only have one catch for maybe 10 yards. We’ve even seen optimal lineups on DraftKings with $200 players returning zero points.

If I had to guess who could potentially step up and see a couple targets, it might be Durham. He played 30 snaps last week and the team’s depth chart lists him as the backup to Otton. Take that with a grain of salt though.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an implied team total north of 26 points so I’m not so inclined to get exposure to the Dallas Cowboys D/ST. The Cowboys struggle in a few aspects on defense. They’re terrible against the run. They can also be beat through the air. And it doesn’t help that their secondary is hurting at the moment. The Cowboys have increased their pressure and blitz rates more recently. However, the Bucs offensive line has been great at keeping Baker Mayfield upright. The Cowboys D/ST won’t carry much exposure, but they allow 26.7 points per game and over 350 yards of offense per game.

The Bucs D/ST has allowed just 15 points per game over the last four weeks and they held three of their last four opponents to under 300 yards of offense. If I was to pick any D/ST from this game to play it would be Tampa, but the Cowboys still have an implied total of about 22 points. Tampa is great at stopping the run, but their secondary is suspect. The Bucs do blitz at a decent rate, but that’s equated to just 38 sacks in 14 games.

In games with higher totals, I’m more inclined to target the kickers. Brandon Aubrey is arguably the league’s best kicker nowadays. From a volume and talent perspective, he delivers it all. Not bad for a former soccer player. Aubrey has attempted multiple field goals in all but one game this year. He’s made multiple field goals in all but two games this year. He’s delivered double-digit fantasy points in eight games so regardless of who the quarterback is, they move the ball and put Aubrey in position to rack up points. I will acknowledge that since Cooper Rush took over as quarterback, Aubrey only has two games with double-digit fantasy points, but he’s hit nine fantasy points in three games to fall just short of that mark.

Chase McLaughlin is great for Showdown slates because his results are all over the place. In Weeks 13 and 15 he attempted at least four field goals in both games while returning 16 and 18 fantasy points respectively. In Week 14, he attempted zero field goals but kicked four extra points. With an implied team total over 26 points, McLaughlin should be involved and put up a score so long as Tampa Bay isn’t consistently scoring touchdowns which would relegate him to XPA duty.

 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Cowboys DFS Player Pool: SNF, 12/22

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