We kick off Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season with a matchup straight out of the AFC West as the Los Angeles Chargers host the Denver Broncos. The Kansas City Chiefs have already clinched the division. But the Broncos enter this matchup at 9-6 while the Chargers are 8-5. 

Both teams are hanging on to the final two wild card spots in the AFC. Here are the latest daily fantasy football strategies on DraftKings and FanDuel featuring our Broncos vs. Chargers DFS picks!

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Chargers DFS Picks & Preview: Thursday Night Football, 12/19

Thursday Night Football gives another divisional matchup and with just three weeks remaining in the regular season, the remaining divisional games weigh a bit heavier with playoff spots on the line. 

As mentioned in the introduction, both teams have a firm grasp on the final two playoff spots in the AFC. A loss doesn’t necessarily crush either team as the Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, and Cincinnati Bengals are all sitting at 6-8 and need quite a bit of help to get into a wild card spot.

The Broncos are 9-5 and have won four straight games, but the Chargers did beat them the first time these two teams met back in Week 6 in Denver. But since that loss, the Broncos are 6-2 and are shaping up to be a very well-rounded squad. Bo Nix has improved as the season has progressed and is justifying the Broncos trading up in the draft to select him back in April. However, when Bo Nix and the offense have had any struggles, the defense has stepped up.

The Los Angeles Chargers have lost back-to-back games, but truthfully they should be riding a four-game losing streak. This team has scored just 17 points in three straight games. The only reason they beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13 was because Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions. 

For Los Angeles, each pick was a gift since the Chargers offense had just 203 total yards of offense in that game. Since the team lost J.K. Dobbins, the running game has severely struggled. Gus Edwards has not looked good as the lead rusher and when defenses don’t need to respect the run game, it becomes all the more difficult to get the passing game going.

But this is a short week for Thursday Night Football and there’s more DFS winnings to be had. Here are the Week 16 Broncos vs. Chargers DFS picks to help you dominate your Showdown contests.

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Chargers TNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chargers -2.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Broncos (+124)
    • Chargers (-148)
  • Game Total: Over 42 (-110) / Under 42 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Chargers -2.5 (-115)
  • Money Line:
    • Broncos (+124)
    • Chargers (-146)
  • Game Total: Over 42.5 (-105) / Under 42.5 (-115)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Broncos vs. Chargers TNF, December 19th

This game will be played indoors in a controlled environment for our Broncos vs. Chargers DFS picks.

Broncos vs. Chargers Injuries: Thursday Night Football Week 16

The biggest injury to monitor for the Broncos is in regard to Pat Surtain, arguably the league’s best defensive back. He suffered a minor ankle sprain on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts. But he was listed as a full participant on Monday’s “estimated” injury report and he was a full participant during Tuesday’s walk through. Surtain’s presence will be huge for this game because he left after one play when these teams met back in Week 6. As far as other members of the defense are concerned, D.J. Jones and Riley Moss were listed as limited participants on Tuesday while John Franklin-Myers did not partake.

The Broncos running back room is a mystery that’s a little difficult to figure out. Jaleel McLaughlin is questionable for this game after leaving Week 15’s game with an injury. Prior to the injury it looked like he was on pace to be the lead back for Denver.

The Chargers also have some injuries on defense. Otito Ogbonnia and Elijah Molden were listed as DNP’s. Additionally, Denzel Perryman was a limited participant on Tuesday but there’s optimism he’ll be good to go for this game. The Chargers might be getting reinforcements back on offense. Will Dissly still isn’t practicing but the tight end position might be okay with Hayden Hurst potentially coming off IR since he was listed as a full participant on Tuesday.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $15,500

Nix is the most expensive player on both DraftKings and FanDuel. On DraftKings, the $10K price tag isn’t terrible actually considering where the most expensive player is usually priced. Nix is coming off two relatively bad games in Weeks 13 and 15. He had just 424 passing yards in those two games with just five interceptions.

But this is a Showdown slate and we’re looking at just one game. Despite completing barely 60% of his pass attempts against the Colts in Week 15, he did throw three touchdowns and we’ve seen Nix flash rushing upside as well. He has five games this year with at least 35 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns on his resume. In this kind of game, a “floor” performance from Nix could very well be enough to be optimal at MVP or Captain.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

Sutton is awesome. Plain and simple. Even on his worst weeks, he still gets volume and despite catching just three passes last week he managed to find the end zone.

Sutton gets volume, and better yet, he’s targeted deep. Sutton touts the second-highest air yards per reception (23.2) among all receivers with at least 50 catches, behind just Calvin Ridley. The Chargers have allowed the third most receiving yards to opposing receivers since Week 9 and Sutton’s averaging 9.4 targets per game since Week 8.

He’s 122 yards away from 1,000 on the season and the stars are aligning for Sutton to have a strong game at a crucial point in the fantasy football season. Even if he isn’t at Captain, I want to make sure he’s in all of my lineups Thursday night.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $9,400 | FanDuel: $13,500

We don’t typically see Surtain travel into the slot for shadow coverage so McConkey should be safe in this matchup. And as we alluded to earlier in this article, Surtain left the Week 6 matchup between these two teams after one play.

Ladd returned from injury last week and caught five-of-seven targets for 58 yards and a score. This matchup against Denver shapes up well for McConkey as the Broncos do run a lot of man coverage and the rookie out of Georgia ranks second in the NFL with a 45.9% win rate against man coverage.

The Broncos have allowed the most receiving yards to opposing receivers over their last six games so with Ladd operating out of the slot, I’m expecting plenty of volume and a lot of after-the-catch production from McConkey.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $15,000

Similar to Nix, we might be able to hit pay dirt with a floor game from Herbert at Captain. But there are floor games and then there are bad games. Herbert has struggled lately and he’s dealing with a bum ankle. Now he has to go up against one of the best defenses in the league? I’m a bit skeptical.

Over his last four games, Herbert hasn’t thrown for more than 220 passing yards and in that span he has just three passing touchdowns. He does have some rushing potential, but he’s been sacked 15 times in his last four games. 

Herbert’s passing volume may be down a bit and it’s hard to imagine the Chargers allow him to run on an injured ankle. But as a flex play, he correlates well with any of his pass catchers at Captain.

Joshua Palmer, WR, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $6,400 | FanDuel: $10,000

The general consensus seems to be that Quentin Johnston will draw most of the shadow coverage from Pat Surtain. Johnston lines up out wide for 88% of his routes so it feels like he’ll get the Surtain treatment.

Palmer isn’t as reliable as McConkey but he should see most coverage from Riley Moss if he’s good to go. And as we mentioned up top, the Broncos do still bleed production to perimeter receivers that aren’t shadowed by Johnston. Denver has allowed the 10th most fantasy points overall to opposing receivers, and the fourth most to perimeter receivers over the past eight weeks.

Palmer has just one touchdown on the year and the fantasy production is difficult to trust at times. But when taking a stand on a Showdown slate it doesn’t hurt to have a little leverage in this spot.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $6,800 | FanDuel: $7,000

Vidal is a better value over on FanDuel but if we’re reading the tea leaves, it seems like the Chargers might have seen enough from Gus Edwards. Edwards will make the player pool below because he has usage in goal line and short yardage situations. He also has touchdowns in two of his last four games, but in that four-game sample size he hasn’t exceeded double-digit fantasy points.

So we pivot to the undrafted rookie, who hasn’t made a big splash either. However, Vidal did play 35 offensive snaps in Week 15 to Edwards’ 14. That only resulted in five touches for the rookie but it’s still rather telling of where the Chargers’ backfield might be at. And for the “game script” truthers out there, Vidal did out snap Edwards in the first quarter of that blowout loss.

Is the matchup great for any running back on Los Angeles? No. And if you don’t want to play either then I suggest finding some savings with the kickers or D/ST’s.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $6,600 | FanDuel: $8,000

We are monitoring his status ahead of this matchup. He left Denver’s Week 15 matchup early but only after seeing a nice workload early. Prior to leaving he did have seven carries for 21 yards and he caught three passes as well. 

Similar to Vidal, the matchup isn’t great for McLaughlin. In fact, the matchups aren’t really appealing for any running back in this game. Volume and matchups are difficult to gauge for any rusher in this matchup as of Wednesday afternoon. There’s a reason the MVP/Captain and Core Plays sections do not have any running backs in them.

However, if McLaughlin is unable to go then we upgrade both Javonte Williams and Audric Estime who should split the running back duties.

 

 

 

NFL Thursday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Marvin Mims, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos - DraftKings: $4,000 | FanDuel: $9,500

I’m listing these two together simply because there’s an opportunity for one of these plays to have a strong game. Both are tremendous values on DraftKings, but Mims is easily the better value on FanDuel.

Mims has had an interesting tenure with the Broncos. As a rookie in 2023, he burst onto the scene in Week 2 against Washington with two receptions for 60 and 53 yards respectively. He found the end zone in that game and it seemed like he was due for a larger role with Denver. But that never came to fruition. He finished with just 22 receptions on the year and he was used sparingly. And the same has largely been true this year. But when he’s on the field, he has upside. Even last week he played just 25% of the offensive snaps and still had five touches. He has at least three receptions in four of his last five games with a pair of touchdowns. So I can’t write him off completely because he is very efficient when he’s given a chance.

Vele is a bit of a conundrum. He’s a 27-year-old rookie with good size. However, he does get more snaps overall than Mims. Last week, Vele played 38 of 63 snaps but only received one target. So you can’t quite trust either but not every target can go to Courtland Sutton and we do save salary with these two.

Stone Smartt, TE, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $4,200 | FanDuel: $7,500

Smartt operated as the team’s TE1 in Week 15. He performed well and despite losing a fumble he finished with five receptions on six targets for 50 yards. With Dissly unlikely to play on a short week, Smartt is in line once again for more snaps and targets. Hayden Hurst is likely to play, but since he’ll be returning from injury, I imagine there will still be opportunities for Smartt across the middle of the field.

Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos – DraftKings: $3,000 | FanDuel: $7,000

Franklin is priced perfectly between Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins on DraftKings, after both tight ends found the end zone last week. Franklin has four straight games with at least two receptions and at least four targets in three straight games. He doesn’t have much touchdown equity. However, he did run more routes (29) than Marvin Mims He doesn’t get the deep targets like Courtland Sutton but there is an effort to get the ball in his hands at least and he won’t garner much exposure.

Hayden Hurst, TE, Los Angeles Chargers – DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $5,000

Hurst is eligible to come off IR and with Will Dissly unlikely to go in this game, it’s possible Hurst sees some kind of a role in this game. He served as the team’s primary tight end earlier in the year, although that didn’t lead to much production.

For a cheap punt in DFS, we don’t need much production to justify this play. Just a few catches for decent yardage will be enough and if he finds the end zone, we’re cooking with gas.

 

 

 

TNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

It’s a short week and this game has an implied total in the low 40’s. On DraftKings, this is probably the closest (in pricing) we’ve seen between kickers and D/ST’s for any slate. What we’ve previously seen this year are the kickers in the low-to-mid $5,000 range while the D/ST’s could fall anywhere from $3,500 to $6,400 depending on the team and the matchup.

The good news is that we have a low total with great defenses. But this game is still in a controlled environment. From Weeks 1-10 the Chargers defense allowed 12.9 points per game but over their last five games they’ve allowed 25.8 points per game including 27+ points to the likes of the Bengals, Ravens, and Buccaneers. In this five-game span they have just six takeaways (and that includes the four interceptions from Kirk Cousins) and nine total sacks. So they aren’t quite trending in the right direction for this matchup but I can’t completely write them off given the short week narrative. But it’s also worth noting that Denver’s offensive line has graded out pretty well on the season.

The Broncos have been a beloved D/ST of ours all season long. They were even the Play of the Week at the D/ST position for the Week 15 NFL DFS main slate. This defense does everything that we love and against a team that struggles to run the ball, we can once again load up here. The Broncos still blitz at a top five rate in the NFL and that’s resulted in 49 sacks through 14 games. Justin Herbert also has a sack-to-pressure rate of 24.5% which is fourth highest in the league among qualifying quarterbacks. The Broncos have 10 takeaways in their last three games including three D/ST touchdowns. They’ll be awfully hard to fade on a short week.

The kickers will likely go under-rostered as is usually the case for our TNF DFS picks. But with such a low implied total for this game, that may force exposure down even more. Cameron Dicker has completed 29-of-31 FGA’s on the season but has only attempted two in his last two games, and remember, the Chargers offense scored just 17 points in three consecutive games. The offensive isn’t exactly running up the score at the moment. To his credit, Dicker does have seven games this year with double-digit fantasy points and six games with at least a dozen fantasy points.

Wil Lutz has completed 27-of-30 FGA’s this season including all 35 of his XPA’s. The problem with Lutz is consistency. You’ll see his fantasy output has a lot of variance to it. He’s returned six or fewer fantasy points in six games this year. But he’s also returned double-digit fantasy points in six games this year as well. The same narrative applies to Lutz with a low total for this game. Opportunities may be hard to come by with Bo Nix having some recent struggles, but with Nix being a Captain/MVP recommendation, Lutz does correlate very well as a flex option.

 

 

 

Broncos vs. Chargers DFS Player Pool: TNF, 12/19

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