Let’s continue dominating Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season with some Bills vs. Ravens DFS picks! Similar to the Thursday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, this feels like a must-win game for the Baltimore Ravens, a team with playoff aspirations. They’re 1-2 and have the luxury of playing at home against the Buffalo Bills who are 3-0.

Buffalo could very well still win this game with ease. They are coming off a short week after embarrassing the Jacksonville Jaguars Monday night, but the Bills offense has been on cruise control. They haven’t had too many challenges through three games but perhaps the Ravens can give them a good fight. Let’s take a look at how we should approach this game for NFL DFS Showdown contests with our Bills vs. Ravens DFS picks!

 

 

 

Bills vs. Ravens DFS Picks & Preview: Sunday Night Football, 9/29

The NFL matchmakers give us another great matchup for primetime as the Buffalo Bills visit the Baltimore Ravens in a potential AFC playoff preview! The Bills come into this contest at 3-0 while the Ravens are 1-2 and fresh off a huge win against the Dallas Cowboys last week.

Both teams have definitely provided their share of frustrations for fantasy football. The Buffalo Bills have been so committed to the run to start the year that it’s led to frustrating starts for players like Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and others. Josh Allen and James Cook have provided the goods since Buffalo hasn’t been tested too much and they haven’t been required to throw the ball often.

Similarly, for the Baltimore Ravens, a lot of the success has come on the ground. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry haven’t disappointed. Even Justice Hill has had his moments as a flex option in deeper leagues. But the pass catchers have been frustrating, none more so than Mark Andrews who has seen very little volume. Zay Flowers has been a great first-read option for Lamar but faces a very difficult matchup this week against Buffalo’s vaunted secondary.

Do we see another battle on the ground for this Sunday Night Football affair? Or can we possibly see both teams put up points and get into a shootout? Let’s examine the line movement and injuries ahead of the top plays and lineup building advice for the Bills vs. Ravens DFS picks!

 

 

 

Bills vs. Ravens SNF Odds at DraftKings & FanDuel

DraftKings Sportsbook

  • Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-112)
  • Money Line:
    • Bills (+114)
    • Ravens (-135)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-110) / Under 46.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

  • Spread: Ravens -2.5 (-110)
  • Money Line: 
    • Bills (+116)
    • Ravens (-136)
  • Game Total: Over 46.5 (-110) / Under 46.5 (-110)

 

 

 

NFL Weather: Bills vs. Ravens SNF, September 29th

It appears as if we’re going to dodge some rain in Baltimore as there were good chances of rain Friday, Saturday, and Monday. However, Sunday just seems a bit cloudy throughout the day with little chance of precipitation. Temperatures will likely mingle in the mid-to-high 60’s Sunday night with very low winds. All in all, these are good conditions for our SNF DFS picks.

Bills vs. Ravens Injuries: Sunday Night Football Week 4

The two big inactives for this matchup for Buffalo fall on the defensive side of the ball. Linebacker Terrel Bernard was a limited participant Thursday and Friday but has been ruled out. Overall, it’s not great that the Bills won’t have Bernard for this game as he could greatly help in stopping the Baltimore rushing attack but it’s a great sign to see him on the field. Defensive back Taron Johnson was also ruled out after not practicing all week.

For Baltimore, the Ravens will be without Jalyn Armour-Davis Sunday on the defensive side but the bigger questions are with the offensive line. Baltimore’s O-line has been very suspect through three games after their offensive line coach, Joe D’Alessandris, passed away a couple weeks before the season. Andrew Vorhees is listed as doubtful after not practicing all week and Tyler Linderbaum is questionable, but he did at least log a full practice session Friday.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: MVP/Captain

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $11,000 | FanDuel: $17,000

Josh Allen has had two monstrous games in fantasy football so far this year and one dud as well. The dud was due to James Cook running wild on the Miami Dolphins in Week 2, and overall, the passing volume has been low for Allen through three games. And yet on 72 pass attempts, he has thrown seven touchdowns already. A 9.7% touchdown rate is due for regression, but if you’re an Allen owner you certainly aren’t complaining.

But we love quarterbacks that can get it done with their legs. I’m more optimistic we see Lamar put up the better rushing totals, but Allen might give us more balance on the ground and through the air. Jacob Gibbs of CBS Sports had a nice thread Friday afternoon on rushing quarterbacks. Josh Allen is basically averaging a rush attempt every 10 offensive snaps and that increases to a rush attempt every five snaps when the Bills are in the red zone.

That kind of upside in the red zone makes Allen such a threat and elite play for our Bills vs. Ravens DFS picks. And even if you take away the rushing numbers, Allen leads all quarterbacks with 0.73 fantasy points per drop back. You can play him as you see fit but he has flexed 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings twice already this year so he’s more than viable at captain.

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $10,800 | FanDuel: $16,500

We love those rushing quarterbacks for NFL DFS Showdown contests and this slate delivers a pair to help us quench that thirst. Lamar Jackson already has 35 rush attempts through two games with 254 rushing yards. The offensive line is hurting as we mentioned in the injury section but that likely allows Lamar to lean more on the run if the pocket is collapsing.

The passing numbers look okay but obviously 15 pass attempts against Dallas is disappointing, but fortunately he can get us to the optimal lineup with his legs. We alluded to some rushing numbers shared by Jacob Gibbs up above. From that same thread we see Lamar Jackson touting a 15.4% rush attempt per offensive snap rate and a 17.9% rate when the team is in the red zone. Jackson also averages 0.68 fantasy points per drop back which ranks him sixth among quarterbacks.

Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $9,800 | FanDuel: $14,500

Volume is the name of the game here and he’s touched the ball 45 times in his last two games. We were all a bit nervous in Week 1 after the game script phased him out a bit. But at the end of the day, he’s getting the workload similar to what we saw during his time with the Tennessee Titans for so many years and he’s found the end zone four times in three games.

The Bills are allowing 118.3 rushing yards per game so that fares well for both Henry and Lamar Jackson. Henry has faced stacked boxes at a very high rate but that has not slowed him down. Even last week he racked up 151 rushing yards, so he easily collected the rushing yard bonus for us on DraftKings. 

He doesn’t have heavy involvement in the passing game. That’s mildly concerning. The third down role belongs to Justice Hill. But 70.8% of Henry’s rushing yards are coming after contact. Despite the narrative of the bad offensive line, he’s getting the work and making big plays on his own.

Khalil Shakir, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $11,000

I’m taking a firm, albeit unique, position with Shakir and it might surprise some people. If you look at just his game logs (which I normally don’t recommend doing because they provide ZERO context for any professional athlete), we’re seeing decent fantasy scores of 19.2, 10.6, and 13.2 fantasy points through three games so far on DraftKings.

Those are solid numbers for a flex play. And Shakir is a good player, having caught all 14 of his targets this year along with two touchdowns. But I’m only going to play him at Captain, or I’m not playing him at all. I think he has a wide range of outcomes for this slate. Buffalo spreads the ball around and the volume is suspect. But when he is targeted is when magic tends to happen.

Shakir has caught 90% of his targets since the start of 2023 averaging 13.2 yards per target. Even last week for the NFL DFS Showdown Playbook for the Bills and Jags game on Monday Night Football, we discussed how Josh Allen had a 144.9 QB rating when targeting Shakir. But the volume isn’t where we want it to be necessarily. If that changes for this game, then I’d rather just gamble on him as strictly a Captain-or-Bust option for this game. That’s just my approach, feel free to flex him if you still appreciate his floor!

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Core Plays

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $9,600 | FanDuel: $14,000

The Bills are coming off a short week but fortunately they’re playing in primetime once again for the third straight week. Cook had a 49% route participation rate against the Jacksonville Jaguars and almost found the end zone on a big play from Josh Allen. Alas, he fell just short of the end zone, but the play did help get him to 18.7 fantasy points.

The target share is up to 13% this year as Buffalo has taken a more balanced approach spreading the ball around. It’s still a small sample size but he also has a 22.5% target per route run rate (nine targets in three games though) but he’s averaging 2.42 yards per route run.

Game scripts for the Bills have just been weird the last two weeks. Cook helped Buffalo get out to a huge lead in Week 2 against the Dolphins when Tua Tagovailoa was hurt. And last week they just faced the Jaguars who are struggling to find their identity on offense. If this game projects to be more competitive then that could mean more touches for Cook, who already has five carries from inside the 10-yard line.

The Ravens have not been easy to run on through three games having allowed a total of 150 rushing yards so Cook will likely need some involvement in the passing game to help hit pay dirt for us.

Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens – DraftKings: $8,600 | FanDuel: $12,000

I’m seeing some sportsbooks setting his reception total at 4.5 and I’m more than happy to take the over on that, even as part of player prop picks on Underdog, PrizePicks, or Sleeper. The line seems reactionary to Flowers only getting four targets last week. But overall, the Ravens attempted just 15 pass attempts against Dallas, which means he still had a 26.7% target share.

My bigger concern isn’t with the volume, but rather the matchup. Teams have been forced to air it out to try and keep pace with Buffalo through three weeks. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, the Bills defense has seen the seventh-most wide receiver targets through three games and yet they’ve allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points to receivers and fifth fewest to the perimeter.

So this doesn’t shape up to be a great matchup for the pass catchers on Baltimore, but if I’m going to roll the dice on any of them it would be Flowers considering he saw 21 total targets in Weeks 1 and 2.

Justice Hill, RB, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $5,400 | FanDuel: $8,000

It feels bizarre putting Hill in the core play section as opposed to the mid-tier. But I am trying to treat him more as a hybrid running back/wide receiver as opposed to strictly a running back because he’s easily getting out-touched by Derrick Henry in this game.

But for a $5,400 play, Justice Hill has touched the ball 20 times in three games and 10 of those have been receptions. We don’t get points for carries. But we do get points for receptions. Hill is largely used on third downs but he’s still on the field for over half of Baltimore’s offensive snaps and while Henry will get the short yardage work, Hill is still getting snaps in the red zone.

And we do have to “big brain” this one a bit as we construct the narratives for our lineups. If the Ravens are playing from behind, then Hill is probably getting more work as a passer as the Ravens try to keep pace and we know Buffalo can shut down opposing receivers. Hill will be among my most-rostered flex options and he even works well in 5:1 or 4:2 Buffalo stacks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $10,500

We’re all going to be trying to make our best guesses regarding who potentially finds the end zone. The good news for all the Buffalo pass catchers is that Baltimore has been very difficult to run on. By that same fact, the Ravens aren’t generating a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So Josh Allen should comfortably be able to air the ball out.

I am expecting more of the same “balanced” target share among the pass catchers and Kincaid has absolutely been a bust in best ball, season-long fantasy football, and DFS. But he found the end zone last week for the first time this year. And this is probably among the more competitive games Buffalo will see all year long.

Per Dalton Del Don of Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, this is a bit of a smash spot for Kincaid and you can definitely make the argument to play him at Captain or MVP. Tight ends are averaging 10.3 targets, 7.7 receptions, and 93.3 yards per game against Baltimore so that gives some value to Dawson Knox as well. Baltimore is a pass-funnel defense so while we’re trying to figure out who to consider among the Bills pass catchers, there’s a tremendous opportunity for Kincaid this week.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $5,800 | FanDuel: $10,000

The only thing to like about Andrews at this point is the price tag. Otherwise, it’s been ugly for both him and Isaiah Likely. The production has been terrible, but Ryan Mink tweeted earlier in the week that Andrews does rank seventh in separation percentage according to Pro Football Focus. Take that with a grain of salt because I believe Mink is an employee for the Ravens.

But this is also a must-win game for the Ravens, and Andrews himself has said that he feels great and his time will come. Terrel Bernard still being out helps his upside. And let’s lend some context to the goose egg from a week ago, the game script phased out a lot of Baltimore’s pass catchers as there were only 15 pass attempts.

I get that we’re all frustrated with the production in season-long leagues. However, we’re playing DFS and the price tag puts him in play if he shakes off the rust and can get more looks.

 

 

 

NFL Sunday Night Football DFS Picks: Value Plays

Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens - DraftKings: $4,400 | FanDuel: $7,500

It’s hard to feel great about Bateman or even Nelson Agholor. I’m not going to feature Agholor in the article, but I’ll mention him a couple times in this section. Baltimore’s receivers have a very difficult matchup. We touched on how difficult Buffalo’s secondary has been on receivers, especially on the perimeter. So that tends to drag down Bateman while elevating Agholor.

What will help Bateman is that he has gotten more volume overall, and while it hasn’t been great, he’s seen at least four targets in each of the first three games for Baltimore. Agholor, by comparison, has only brought in three catches in three games on five total targets.

With Taron Johnson out, that does help Agholor’s matchup as he mostly lines up in the slot. But overall, I’m not optimistic on either but if I’m gambling on one, I’ll pay up slightly for Bateman since there’s more of an effort to get him the ball.

Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $1,600 | FanDuel: $6,000

Not the best play by any means but we can talk ourselves to some exposure because the Showdown price tag continues to drop for Knox. The Bills drafted Dalton Kincaid because they openly said they wanted to run more 12 personnel which would still keep Knox on the field. And to his credit, he saw over 30 snaps last week against Jacksonville. But again, the Bills haven’t thrown very much.

So Knox only has four targets to his name so far this season. But the price is getting to a point where we actually don’t need massive volume. There is a path for him to pay off this price with just a few receptions and some yardage. If he somehow scores a touchdown then he’s likely in the optimal lineup as a flex play.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Buffalo Bills - DraftKings: $1,200 | FanDuel: $6,000

MVS is a similar option to Dawson Knox. Not a ton of volume is going his way, but the price tag is dropping for Showdown contests. But you could make that argument for the likes of Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins. But MVS is the cheapest of the three at least.

The Bills had some garbage time in Week 3 against the Jaguars and even Mitchell Trubisky managed to sneak in and get some playing time for the Buffalo Bills. MVS was actually on the field for 49 snaps last week which was surprisingly more than Khalil Shakir. We know MVS is more of a big play/deep threat option but isn’t that what we’re looking for on a Showdown slate? I’ll take the risk considering he’s so cheap.

 

 

 

SNF DFS Picks: Kickers & D/ST

Both offenses have an implied team total of at least 22 points and the Ravens are only favored by 2.5 points. For that very reason we can expect some offensive output. But both teams are still capable of big defensive plays. 

If I had to choose one D/ST over the other it’s likely Buffalo. They’ve returned 31 fantasy points in their last two games and allowed just 20 points total to the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars. On the season they’ve forced six turnovers and have amassed 11 sacks. Their secondary is very good allowing just 168.3 passing yards per game, but they haven’t been challenged too much just yet. The Bills are relatively middle-of-the-road in blitz rate and pressure rate. But remember, the Baltimore offensive line has been pretty bad through three games and they’re limping into this matchup.

The Baltimore defense gives me some pause especially with how good the Bills offense has looked without much effort. In the very first NFL DFS Showdown Playbook this year, we discussed some of the personnel changes on the defensive side for the Ravens. So far the loss of Mike MacDonald is weighing heavy on the Ravens. They’re blitzing on just 22.5% of opposing offense’s drop backs and they’re generating pressure at a 27.1% clip which is fourth worst in the league. They have garnered 10 sacks through two games so at least when they are generating pressure, they’re getting to the opposing quarterback. But still, they’ve allowed 25+ points in all three games and have only forced three turnovers. Tough to run on? Sure, but they’re beatable through the air.

The kickers are on the board as correlative plays, but Justin Tucker has not looked as automatic as he has in previous years. Tucker has missed a field goal in each of Baltimore’s three games so far this season but he’s still getting decent volume with eight attempts through three games in addition to eight extra points.

Tyler Bass might just have the better floor for this matchup. He’s five-for-six on field goal attempts this year, but he’s already attempted 14 extra point attempts as well so there’s a floor of about eight fantasy points here. But remember, with Baltimore allowing 26 points per game to opposing offenses, that does give the kickers some appeal. Harrison Butker had nine fantasy points against Baltimore in Week 1. Daniel Carlson put up 18 fantasy points in Week 2 on this defense. Brandon Aubrey posted 11 fantasy points against the Ravens just last week. So while this is a tough position to gauge it seems like Baltimore is a gold mine matchup for opposing kickers.

If playing either quarterback at captain, correlate it with their respective kicker in the flex but this is one of the rare instances I recommend being overweight on Bass, who should be the more expensive kicker between the two. And I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Bass is playable at Captain as well. I’ll be hand building 20 lineups for this Showdown slate and he’ll likely make the Captain slot in two of my lineups. I also love betting the over on any prop you can find for over 1.5 field goals made or over 6.5 kicker points in relation to Bass.

 

 

 

Bills vs. Ravens DFS Player Pool: SNF, 9/29

Player Pool

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