NFL DFS QB Picks, Thanksgiving Day: Week 12 QB Coach
Happy Thanksgiving to one and all! We’re thrilled to once again offer our All-Pro articles for free on Thanksgiving, so welcome to any new readers. We hope you’ll win some money and join the #FAmily!
Each week, this article breaks down the top NFL QB picks for the upcoming slate. We don’t just throw a list of picks at you, though - we share analysis and DFS advice so you know exactly why someone is a sleeper or value play, and so YOU can become a better fantasy player.
When you’re done here, be sure to check out our RB picks, WR picks, TE picks, and D/ST picks in the “Coach” articles for those positions, too.
NFL DFS QB Picks: Best QB Plays For Thanksgiving Day
It feels like Thanksgiving’s daily fantasy QB pool has a clear separation between the haves and the have nots. We have three of the highest scoring offenses in the Lions, Cowboys and 49ers, and three that are below average in the Commanders, Seahawks and Packers.
We’re looking for the top DFS QB picks though, so we just need to find the best spots to target and worst spots to fade.
Here are the best fantasy QB picks I’m interested in for Thanksgiving, which kicks off our Week 12 NFL DFS action.
Thanksgiving’s Top DFS QB: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Are we shocked by this? The Cowboys passing offense is firing on all cylinders and now get to face a Commander's defense that just let Tommy DeVito throw for three touchdowns. Prescott has thrown 13 touchdowns with just two interceptions over the past four games as he and CeeDee Lamb torment opposing defenses.
Another multiple touchdown performance should be in the cards. He’s the top QB play on the Thanksgiving NFL DFS slate.
NFL DFS QB Mid-Tier Plays
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
There is always the threat that Christian McCaffrey does all the scoring, but we’ve now had three straight games of 20+ fantasy points from Purdy. He has six touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last two weeks. The Seahawks defense has improved, but I’m still liking what we’ve seen from the 49ers since they have come back from their bye week.
Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
We just saw Howell have a pretty bad game, and yet we got 20 fantasy points out of him. I’ve said it time and time again: volume is king. While his DFS score benefited from a rushing touchdown in this most recent outing, we’ve also seen him have games where he’ll rack up 20 fantasy points with one touchdown and one pick, but 320 yards. I could see more of that this week in a game where the Cowboys likely will jump off to a big lead and Howell will have no choice but to drop back 50 times.
Keep an eye on our Projected Ownership tool. There’s a chance that Howell has low enough ownership that he could be considered a sleeper QB pick. Sometimes the masses will focus too much on the favorites (Washington currently is an 11-point underdog) and forget that losing sides can still rack up fantasy points in bunches and still make great DFS picks.
NFL DFS QB Value Plays
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
We haven’t loved what we’ve seen from Love for much of this season, but the Lions pass defense can be attacked. There also is talent at the wide receiver position in Green Bay.
I can’t stress enough that in fantasy football, you don’t have to be a good real-world QB to have good fantasy weeks. In Week 10, Jordan Love completed just 52% of his passes and was intercepted twice, but he racked up 289 yards along with two touchdowns. He finished with nearly 19 fantasy points. At his price, that type of production could be enough to be in the optimal DFS lineup if it allows you to spend up for the top WRs on the slate.
Player News
The Athletic’s Dan Duggan believes there were “no indications of any changes to Wan’Dale Robinson’s usage in the spring.”
Duggan noted Robinson’s frustrations with his role in 2024. Entering his fourth year, Robinson wants more opportunities on deep looks and more chances to win outside of the slot. Based on Duggan’s account of the early offseason practices, the Giants aren’t reading all that. Since entering the league in 2022, Robinson’s 5.4 average depth of target is dead last in the league among 105 qualified wideouts. He has been the definition of a PPR scam in New York and that won’t be changing in 2025. He remains a low-ceiling WR5 heading into a contract year.
Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk reports that the NFLPA is appealing the ruling in regards to a potential collusion case regarding fully-guaranteed contracts.
Per Florio, the NFL and NFLPA agreed to pause everything in the post-ruling process indefinitely, but by choosing to file the appeal of the January 14 hearing, that’s no longer the case. It will now go forward, with a three-member appeals panel considering the ruling.
Rams RB coach Ron Gould told reporters that Kyren Williams has looked “more explosive” during the offseason.
Williams put together a solid season, but his 27 explosive rushes — runs for more than 10 yards — were tied for just 11th in the NFL last year. The 24-year-old has competition in the backfield with Jarquez Hunter and Blake Corum in the fold, but if Williams can show the ability to break off more big carries on top of being one of the best short-yardage backs in the NFL, he should remain the bellcow for the Rams again in 2025.
Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post mentions Marvin Mims as a potential number two wide receiver option behind Courtland Sutton.
Mims has yet to break out in the NFL, but the 23-year-old took a big step forward last season, registering 39 catches on 52 targets for 503 receiving yards with six touchdowns. He has made the Pro Bowl twice as a return man and only played on 27 percent of the Broncos’ offensive snaps last season, so he will need to be given a larger role if he’s truly going to emerge in this offense. He led the team in catches of 40 yards or longer, so he can break a big play when given the chance, but he’ll need to beat out second-year receivers Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele if he’s going to see an uptick in snap share.
Bijan Robinson said the Falcons have “outlandish goals” for the team’s rushing production in 2025.
Robinson and the Falcons believe they can improve on the ground after finishing 2024 with the league’s tenth most rushing yards and ninth most rushing scores. They were seventh in rush EPA and first in rushing success rate. “If he touched the ball every play and the defense knew, we’d still make big-time plays. He’s that guy,” QB Michael Penix said of Robinson. “He’s the guy that when you go to a Little League game, and there’s that one kid that never gets tackled, that scores every time, that’s him but in the NFL. As many times as we can get the ball in his hands, we’re going to do it.” It’s the latest sign the Falcons will be a run-first team in 2025, as they were in the final month of 2024. That could mean more consistent usage for Tyler Allgeier, though Robinson will remain the workhorse back in Atlanta.
The Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud reports Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs (knee) is likely to miss “at least the first couple games of the regular season.”
The All-Pro tackle underwent knee surgery this week and will miss training camp and the preseason. He could be back sometime in September, though that seems optimistic right now. Bucs coaches said in June that Wirfs sitting out minicamp was strictly precautionary and that he would be ready for training camp. Instead, he will start the season on the PUP list, which will cost him at least four games. It’s an outsized loss for the Bucs offense. Pro Football Focus graded Wirfs as 2024’s top pass blocking offensive lineman. He allowed just one quarterback hit over 16 games. Wirfs’ absence will likely impact Baker Mayfield and the team’s pass catchers.