Patriots vs. 49ers Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 4, Sunday 9/29

Last week featured the longest NFL road trip with Miami heading up to Seattle, but this week isn’t far behind with the New England Patriots going cross-country to visit the San Francisco 49ers. This matchup has the biggest point spread of the week, but we’ve still found our favorite way to approach the game with our Patriots vs. 49ers predictions.
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Patriots vs. 49ers Predictions For NFL Week 4, Sunday 9/29
Traveling across the country isn’t the only thing going against the Pats this week. They’re coming off a brutal loss to a division rival on national TV with the New York Jets flying through them 24-3.
Now, that was on Thursday Night Football, so they’ll at least have the rest advantage in this matchup. However, will that make a difference against the team that just represented the NFC in the Super Bowl last year? Well, the 49ers are dealing with massive injury issues and are coming off back-to-back losses themselves.
So much going on with both teams can absolutely make locking Patriots vs. 49ers predictions difficult. Not to worry - we’ve found a rather specific market that we love.
New England Patriots: Figuring Out Their Identity
Before we fully get into the best bet from our Patriots vs. 49ers predictions, let’s discuss each team a bit more first. The Pats opened up the season knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals as the biggest underdogs of the week on the road, which is the exact spot they find themselves in this Sunday.
It was a huge win, but with the Bengals now at 0-3, how big of a win was it? We know that their identity resides on the defensive side of the ball, but even that is quite imbalanced. They’ve been strong against the run, but weak against the pass. So, it’s up to San Fran head coach Kyle Shanahan to find ways to exploit that.
San Francisco 49ers: Piecing Things Together
The reason that we’re putting the pressure on Shanahan rather than specific players is because up until now, he’s had the superstars to rely on. That has since changed, as not only is RB Christian McCaffrey still missing, but so is WR Deebo Samuel.
We saw WR Jauan Jennings emerge last week, but now that teams can gameplan for that, it’s on Shanahan to scheme him open alongside WR Brandon Aiyuk. Of course, RB Jordan Mason has quickly made a name for himself, and this run defense may be his toughest test to date.
Patriots vs. 49ers Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As far as the standard markets go, here are the latest Patriots vs. 49ers odds at FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: New England Patriots +10 (-110) vs. San Francisco 49ers -10 (-110)
- Money Line: New England Patriots (+380) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-500)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 39 (-110) vs. Under 39 (-110)
Patriots vs. 49ers Point Spread: San Fran First Half Team Total Over 13.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
With a banged-up 49ers squad being such a massive favorite, we’re not touching such a significant point spread. We also don’t know if we can trust the Pats to keep things close, hence our rather specific approach.
Our Patriots vs. 49ers predictions are focused on just the San Francisco side as well as just the first half of the game. We anticipate a victory for the 49ers, but we want to avoid a backdoor cover situation with the game in hand. So, we’re eyeing a fast start for the red and gold.
After all, that’s how they’ve been looking thus far. Last week, they allowed a huge comeback from the Los Angeles Rams to fall 27-24 after blowing a 21-7 lead. That is the exact situation we want to avoid, so let’s just focus on cashing by halftime.
In two of San Francisco’s first three games, they’ve gone over this first half total, including 14 first-quarter points in Week 1. That has them within the top 10 in terms of first-half points per game, and while the Pats’ defense is better than their offense, they’re still only middle-of-the-pack when it comes to first-half points allowed per game.
We just saw the Jets score 14 in the first two quarters against New England, and the week prior was the Seattle Seahawks putting up 17 first-half points. Even with some missing pieces, we trust San Francisco to go over 13.5 first-half points (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook) with our Patriots vs. 49ers predictions.
Patriots vs. 49ers Injury Report & Latest News
We’ve mentioned quite a few players when going through our Patriots vs. 49ers predictions, and here are those with injury concerns following Thursday’s practice:
NE Patriots:
- OT Vederian Lowe (knee) - DNP
- G Michael Jordan (ankle) - DNP
- CB Alex Austin (ankle) - DNP
- TE Hunter Henry (ankle) - LP
- OT Caedan Wallace (knee) - LP
- G Sidy Sow (ankle) - LP
- LB Anfernee Jennings (shoulder) - LP
- CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) - LP
- CB Jonathan Jones (shoulder) - LP
SF 49ers:
- WR Jacob Cowing (illness) - DNP
- DT Javon Hargrave (triceps) - DNP
- WR Deebo Samuel (calf) - LP
- TE George Kittle (hamstring) - LP
- DT Jordan Elliott (foot) - LP
- LB Curtis Robinson (knee) - LP
- LB Dee Winters (ankle) - LP
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.