Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 5, Sunday 10/6

We’ve seen several AFC East rivalries so far this season, including multiple on prime time, and we have another one this Sunday with the New England Patriots hosting the Miami Dolphins. Given the past few weeks for these teams, many fans are glad that it’s not a prime time game, but even still, we’ve got our best Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions for the divisional matchup.
Even if you decide to go a different route than the best bet from our Dolphins vs. Patriots picks, don’t worry, you can do so with a guaranteed $200 FanDuel Sportsbook welcome offer, which we’ve also explained below.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions For NFL Week 5, Sunday 10/6
In past seasons, this was often a rivalry where the Dolphins would be trying to play spoiler for a Pats’ perfect season or first-round bye. More recently, it’s been New England trying to prevent Miami from winning the AFC East.
Now, these 1-3 teams would just like to get into the win column. Between the Patriots still trying to rebuild since the Tom Brady & Bill Belichick era and the Dolphins trying to figure out their QB situation, this matchup could be a hot mess. While that means it likely won’t be the best or the cleanest football, that often means it could be the most exciting!
Miami Dolphins: Turning Around The Tua Turmoil
After starting QB Tua Tagovailoa went down with another concussion, the pressure fell on the shoulders of backup QB Skyler Thompson. Then, after he went down, the team turned to former Ravens QB Tyler Huntley, who they grabbed from the practice squad.
For fans who viewed head coach Mike McDaniels’ offense as one where it was plug-and-play, their view on that may need to change. Things have been the polar opposite without Tua under center, as last season Miami led the NFL in yards per game with over 400/game, and now, they’re struggling to find the end zone even once.
Keep that in mind as we break down the best bet from our Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions, especially given how the Patriots have looked as well.
New England Patriots: Almost Drake Maye Time?
New England started the season with one of the biggest upsets we may see all year, taking down the Cincinnati Bengals. Well, it may end up looking like barely an upset given the Bengals 1-3 start to the season.
Regardless, the Pats have since come back down to Earth, losing each of their last three games. First-year head coach Jerod Mayo has continued to roll out QB Jacoby Brissett, and not that he’s been making bonehead decisions, but with rookie QB Drake Maye waiting in the wings, some fans are starting to grow restless.
It’s likely that we see him at some point this season, but how soon? That remains to be seen, but it could be sooner rather than later.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
The fact the New England is favored on Sunday speaks volumes to Miami’s recent struggles, and you can see the latest Dolphins vs. Patriots odds at FanDuel Sportsbook below:
- Point Spread: Miami Dolphins +1.5 (-118) vs. New England Patriots -1.5 (-104)
- Money Line: Miami Dolphins (-102) vs. New England Patriots (-116)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 36 (-110) vs. Under 36 (-110)
Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread: Under 36 Points (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
If you have the mental fortitude to back either team on the point spread or money line, more power to you. However, our Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions are focused elsewhere. Truthfully, it may take a leap of faith to target such a low total as well, but we don’t expect many points in this matchup at all.
It doesn’t take too much analysis to see why. The Dolphins offense without Tua is a shell of its former self, having scored 10, 12 and three points across the last three games. Now, they face a Patriots team that is almost solely focused on defense under Mayo.
They may be losing games, but they can handle a Dolphins team on their third QB. For example, superstar WR Tyreek Hill went from 12 catches for 130 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 alone to 87 yards TOTAL over the last three games. Similarly, New England virtually doesn’t even have an outside threat to speak of.
That has translated into low-scoring games on their end. Even in their victory Week 1, it was a final score of just 16-10. More recently, the Pats have scored 13 and three points in their last two contests. All that is a recipe for another low-scoring game, making the best bet from our Dolphins vs. Patriots predictions on the under 36 points (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook).
Dolphins vs. Patriots Injury Report & Latest News
We’ve got you covered with more than just Dolphins vs. Patriots picks - here is the Thursday practice injury report:
MIA Dolphins:
- S Jordan Poyer - DNP
- QB Skylar Thompson - LP
- RB Raheem Mostert - LP
- WR Braxton Berrios - LP
- LB Emmanuel Ogbah - LP
- LB David Long - LP
- LB Duke Riley - LP
NE Patriots:
- WR K.J. Osborn - DNP
- OT Caedan Wallace - DNP
- C David Andrews - DNP
- S Kyle Dugger - DNP
- WR Kendrick Bourne - LP
- OT Vederian Lowe - LP
- G Layden Robinson - LP
- G Michael Jordan - LP
- C Nick Leverett - LP
- LB Anfernee Jennings - LP
- LB Sione Takitaki - LP
- CB Jonathan Jones - LP
- CB Marcus Jones - LP
- S Jabrill Peppers - LP
- S Marte Mapu (calf — IR return)
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.