Colts vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 13, Sunday 12/1
What was once an epic Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady rivalry is now a matchup of two teams with losing records. That’s what we have with the New England Patriots hosting the Indianapolis Colts this Sunday, but that doesn’t mean it’s not set to be an interesting clash. Therefore, we’ve still got our top Colts vs. Patriots predictions for you.
That will lead into the best bet from our Colts vs. Patriots picks PLUS a $150 DraftKings Sportsbook sign up offer.
Colts vs. Patriots Predictions For NFL Week 13, Sunday 12/1
If there have been two teams difficult to predict this season, it’s the Colts and Patriots. We’ve seen Indy beat the Pittsburgh Steelers, have amazingly close games and get crushed just last weekend. We’ve seen New England ruin survivor pools, pull off a road blowout and get smacked against a division rival last Sunday.
So, we aren’t surprised to see the Colts vs. Patriots odds suggesting a rather close matchup. However, Indy is still the favorite despite being on the road, and we’d agree with that assessment.
It’s their defense that has been the issue, but the Pats simply haven’t proven to have an explosive offense. Now, we do think they can move the ball with RB Rhamondre Stevenson, but ultimately, not enough to pull off the upset.
Indianapolis Colts: Bucking The Trend
There is a glaring trend that is going to massively support the top pick from our Colts vs. Patriots predictions, but Indy will also need to erase a different narrative. That is the fact that teams that have just faced the Detroit Lions have done awful the following week.
Not only have the Lions been lighting teams up themselves, but apparently, they’ve been doing so in such a physical fashion that teams have been losing their next matchups as well. The Colts just lost a 24-6 game to Detroit this past Sunday, so they’ll need to stop that streak. Again, there is more support to suggest that they’ll be able to do just that!
New England Patriots: Putting Up A Fight
As mentioned, New England has been so interesting to monitor for bettors this season, as they look like world-beaters as nearly double-digit underdogs while also hardly putting up a fight at all in an AFC East rivalry.
Sitting at just 3-8 on the season, they’re all but eliminated from playoff contention, so now it’s all about predicting if they will even be competitive. With head coach Bill Belichick at the helm, that would be a bit of a one-sided question, but the franchise is completely different these days. Rookie QB Drake Maye certainly seems to be developing well, so there is reason to believe in a bright future for New England.
Colts vs. Patriots Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
We’ve already shared that Indy is the road favorite in this matchup, and you can see the latest Colts vs. Patriots odds at DraftKings Sportsbook here:
- Point Spread: Indianapolis Colts -2 (-110) vs. New England Patriots +2 (-110)
- Money Line: Indianapolis Colts (-140) vs. New England Patriots (+115)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 42.5 (-110) vs. Under 42.5 (-110)
Colts vs. Patriots Best Bet: Indianapolis -2 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
To finally explain why we’ve been reiterating the road favorite aspect of this matchup. We’re comfortable backing what is otherwise a dicey spot given how road favorites have been performing this season.
They are a whopping 41-29-3 against the spread this season, good for a remarkable 58.6% hit rate. While it’s difficult to imagine that being a sustainable mark to some, we’re now through more than 12 weeks of the NFL season, so it’s a trend that simply cannot be ignored.
The only pushback that we would note for this matchup is the lack of physicality in terms of the Colts run defense. New England has seen some strong performances from the aforementioned Stevenson, but the good news for Indy backers is that their run defense has been of the bend-don’t-break variety.
While they have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game, they have been keeping rushing attacks out of the endzone. Last Sunday’s game against a Lions team scoring multiple rushing touchdowns per game has skewed things a bit, but without that outlier, Indy has been stout in the redzone.
New England’s defense also hasn’t been as feared as the past two seasons, so we’re comfortable backing the road favorite trend and take Indianapolis -2 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook) as the best bet from our Colts vs. Patriots predictions.
Colts vs. Patriots Injury Report & Latest News
In terms of injury news, both teams have had injuries to the QB position. However, as for the expected ones for this Sunday, both Maye and Colts QB Anthony Richardson are ready to rock. So, it’s Indy WRs Alec Pierce and Josh Downs that we really need to keep an eye on, which you can do with the NFL injury report at Fantasy Alarm!
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Player News
Rachaad White has suggested 2025 will be his last season with the Buccaneers.
The hint comes from a social media post featuring a photo of Baker Mayfield and an emoji-infused caption suggesting White is preparing for “one last ride” with the team. He was supplanted by 2024 rookie Bucky Irving as the team’s starter last year. White remained the clear-cut passing down back at the end of the season, but his target volume problematically dried up after an eight-target Week 16 outing; he totaled just three targets in Week 17-Wild Card Weekend. White is best viewed as a bench stash with mild PPR RB4/5 potential this year. He is scheduled to hit free agency after the season concludes, and it is possible he finds a fantasy-friendly landing spot as a passing down back in 2026.
The Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett said “one reason” Lions head coach Dan Campbell hired new OC John Morton “was to keep some semblance of continuity in place.”
Morton previously worked as a senior offensive assistant with Campbell’s 2022 Lions squad before serving as the Broncos’ pass game coordinator in 2023-2024. While Birkett expects “the Lions to throw the ball downfield more under Morton,” we can also safely expect Morton to continue featuring Jahmyr Gibbs in the passing game. Both Campbell’s 2022-2024 Lions offenses and the Broncos’ 2023-2024 offenses ranked top 12 in total targets thrown to the running back position annually. Gibbs should again contend for the overall RB1 spot in PPR formats.
The Detroit Free Press’ Dave Birkett said he expects “the Lions to throw the ball downfield more” under new OC John Morton.
Morton spent the 2022 season serving as a Lions senior offensive assistant before heading to Denver to serve as the Broncos’ pass game coordinator from 2023-2024. While Jared Goff (7.0) and Bo Nix (7.8) operated via similar aDOTs last year, Nix’s 126 passes thrown 15-plus yards downfield rank third among NFL QBs and hold a 23-pass edge over Goff, whose 103 qualifying attempts rank 13th. Increasing the Lions’ downfield passing frequency would benefit speedster Jameson Williams, who Morton talked up as a breakout candidate last week. Williams finished as the PPR WR22 last season.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that the Commanders have agreed to terms with No. 29 overall pick OT Josh Conerly Jr. on a four-year contract.
Per Fowler, Conerly is “expected to sign Tuesday.” Unless something goes awry, Commanders fans can effectively count this as a signing. The deal is reportedly worth $15.68 million. It is unclear which position Conerly will play. He could compete with last year’s rookie LT Brandon Coleman for the starting right tackle gig, with former Texans LT Laremy Tunsil now in the fold, or perhaps, one of Conerly or Coleman will compete with LG Nick Allegretti. Regardless, the Commanders now have a sturdy offensive line group capable of protecting Jayden Daniels.
Javonte Williams told Cowboys team reporter Tommy Yarrish that he feels “completely” like himself, now more than two years removed from his October 2022 knee injury.
Williams’ stable rushing metrics have suffered since tearing his ACL and LCL, while also damaging the posterolateral corner of his knee. Over the last two seasons, Williams’ missed tackle forced rate (0.16) has dropped by 50.0 percent of his pre-injury form and his post-contact yardage average likewise decreased by 0.8 yards. Thus far in organized team activities, “Williams has been taking a majority of the first team reps at running back,” but as Yarrish notes, “there are a lot of bodies” in the Cowboys running back room. Per Williams, it remains unclear as to “what kind of rotation will be utilized” by new head coach Brian Schottenheimer, or “if there will be one at all.” Williams’ early first-team repetitions serve as a positive sign, but there is a long way to go before the depth chart is established. For now, Williams should only be viewed as a member of an unsettled committee.
New Orleans Football’s Nick Underhill reports that the battle between Saints QBs Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough is “something to monitor” after a strong showing from Rattler in organized team activities.
Underhill described Rattler as being in “total control of the offense” and looked “really, really good” while hitting “throws with a high degree of difficulty.” Now, as Underhill also points out, a second-year player “should look better” than Shough, who was participating in just “his fourth practice with an NFL team.” Underhill does not know whether “this is going to lead to wins, or results,” but declared the competition “rejuvenating” for a team in need of leadership. While neither Rattler nor Shough is likely to produce fantasy football QB1 results, the starter could work his way onto QB2 streaming radar, aided by the Saints’ talented receiving corps.