Chargers vs. Broncos Predictions, Picks & Odds: NFL Week 6, Sunday 10/13
The AFC West used to be home to some high-flying matchups. And it certainly still can be with Patrick Mahomes and the gang in the division. But some changes in coaching and changes in philosophy have changed the approach to the game for teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos.
We’re living in the Sean Payton era in Denver while the Jim Harbaugh reign in Los Angeles has just begun this year. And, with a lot of moving parts and a small sample size of games, that leaves a lot of work on our part to make our Chargers vs. Broncos predictions for Week 6. So let’s dig into the info we do have and see if we can come up with a best bet for this week!
Even if you just want to see the Chargers vs. Broncos odds and have Chargers vs. Broncos picks of your own, don’t forget to scroll down at the end to see how you can scoop up a $1,500 BetMGM Sportsbook sign-up bonus!
Chargers vs. Broncos Predictions For NFL Week 6, Sunday 10/6
Given this is a divisional matchups, these teams play fairly often. And the Broncos have gotten the best of the Chargers as of late, winning three straight. The final matchup last year saw Easton Stick face off against Jarrett Stidham in Week 18 so perhaps not a great indicator of what we can expect to see this weekend, however.
The Broncos started the season with losses to the Seahawks and Steelers but have since rattled off three straight wins against the Buccaneers, the Jets, and the Raiders. The Chargers are coming off their bye week here - before that they beat the Raiders and Panthers then fell to the Steelers and Chiefs.
Los Angeles Chargers: The Jim Harbaugh Era
The Chargers have long been known for their high-flying pass attack, going back to the days of the Air Coryell offense. But Jim Harbaugh has brought his brand of ground and pound football to Los Angeles and he’s enlisted former Raven’s offensive coordinator Greg Roman to execute it. The Chargers are currently attempting the fewest passes per game of any team at 23.3 and the next closest is Washington at 26.8.
After jettisoning their top four pass-catchers in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett, the Chargers are still trying to figure out their pass game identity with guys like Joshua Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and rookie Ladd McConkey. JK Dobbins has emerged as the leader of the backfield so far.
The Chargers defense has been the bright spot as they currently rank second in DVOA per FTN Football. They’ll be without Asante Samuel Jr. this weekend and Joey Bosa is currently questionable - he left the Steelers game after only two snaps and has not played since. If he doesn’t suit up again, that certainly changes the outlook on this defense some.
Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton And The Rest
The Denver Broncos are also trying to figure out their identity with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Courtland Sutton is the clear top dog but after him it is wide open. It almost feels like Sean Payton has been running “live tryouts” - one game DeVaughn Vele or Greg Dulcich will get eight targets, the next game they are a healthy scratch. Early on Josh Reynolds was playing the second most snaps but, as of late, it has been Lil’Jordan Humphrey.
The Broncos backfield has been led by Javonte Williams though Jaleel McLaughlin and Tyler Badie have also mixed in at times (as well as fullback Michael Burton). Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi loves his passes to the running back - the Broncos led the league last year and are currently second this year. Bo Nix is getting a hang on this dink and dunk offense - he has not turned the ball over in three games.
The Broncos defense has also been a pleasant surprise, currently ranking fourth in DVOA per FTN. Pat Surtain has been a nightmare for receivers, especially for fantasy football as he seemingly either locks the guy down or commits a penalty to stop him, resulting in few statistical yards being registered. Unfortunately, Alex Singleton was placed on season-ending IR after tearing his ACL - he had 31 tackles through only three games.
Chargers vs. Broncos Odds, Spreads, Total & Betting Lines
As promised, the latest Chargers vs. Broncos odds can be found below courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:
- Point Spread: Los Angeles Chargers -3 (-105) vs. Denver Broncos +3 (-115)
- Money Line: Los Angeles Chargers (-155) vs. Denver Broncos (+130)
- Game Total (Over/Under): Over 35.5 (-110) vs. Under 35.5 (-110)
Chargers vs. Broncos: Under 35.5 (-110 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
An over/under of 35.5 is about as low as they make ‘em. Yet we’re still willing to go under on this particular game. And that’s because that’s how BOTH of these organizations want the game to play out.
Splash plays are the easiest way for us to hit the over. Long touchdowns, turnovers for touchdowns, special teams touchdowns. And the way these teams play are simply not conducive to that. Bo Nix has been doing a great job running this “death by a thousand cuts” style offense, taking care of the ball and getting it out quickly. The Chargers are the least pass-happy team in the league, leaning into Greg Roman’s run scheme. They let all their weapons leave for a reason.
Throw in that both of these teams have top five defenses in DVOA and this is a recipe for the under. The Broncos have had two games so far with less than 20 total points scored while the last two games the Chargers played they scored 10 points in both. I’m not sure you could set the under for this game at a low enough number where we wouldn’t take it.
Chargers vs. Broncos Injury Report & Latest News
Finally, let’s take a quick look at the projected starting lineups for both teams heading into tonight’s matchup:
LAC Chargers
- CB Asante Samuel JR - Out
- DB Ja’Sir Taylor - Out
- RB Gus Edwards - Out
- OLB Joey Bosa - Questionable
- CB Kristian Fulton - Questionable
- DB Deane Leonard - Questionable
- LB Nick Niemann - Questionable
- T Rashawn Slater - Questionable
DEN Broncos
- WR Josh Reynolds - Out
- OT Alex Palczewski - Out
- C Luke Wattenberg - Out
- RB Audric Estime - Questionable
- CB Damarri Mathis - Questionable
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Player News
Dolphins signed No. 13 overall pick DT Kenneth Grant to a four-year contract.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reports that Grant will sign his contract today. The former Michigan defensive tackle is expected to fill a major void left by Christian Wilkins, who left for the Raiders in the 2024 offseason. Grant totaled 32 tackles, three sacks, and seven TFLs in his final season at Michigan and excelled at stopping the run while also generating 27 pressures in his final season, per PFF.
Beat reporter John Hendrix reports that free agent WR Donovan Peoples-Jones is among the 16 players that the Saints will host for their rookie minicamp.
Peoples-Jones last played regular season snaps with the Lions back in 2023, when he caught 13-of-24 targets for 155 yards. He is highly unlikely to return to fantasy relevance at this point but could perhaps sign on as a special teams contributor.
Titans signed fourth-round pick WR Elic Ayomanor to a four-year contract.
Ayomanor will now begin learning behind Calvin Ridley. Although Ayomanor is unlikely to find a meaningful role in year one, dynasty managers should note his status as training camp gets underway this summer. The former Stanford receiver flashed big-play ability in his two college seasons.
Buccaneers signed seventh-round pick WR Tez Johnson to a four-year contract.
Johnson will serve as a rotational deep-threat option for Baker Mayfield. His thin frame (5'10/154) simply does not lend itself to the repeated hits one incurs in a full-time role. Johnson did earn 100-plus targets in his two seasons at Oregon, though. His big-play style make him a better fit in best ball for now, pending any major on-field breakthroughs.
Giants waived DT Casey Rogers.
Rogers was a 2024 undrafted free agent and logged 33 defensive snaps for the Giants in his rookie season. He is credited with zero tackles and/or sacks. He may find his way onto another roster as a practice squad option.
Vikings signed third-round pick WR Tai Felton to a four-year contract.
Felton is quietly in play to challenge Vikings No. 3 WR Jalen Nailor in training camp. Nailor (5'11/190) caught 28-of-42 targets for 414 yards and six touchdowns in his first season as a starter last year, with the latter category buoying his fantasy productivity. Felton (6'1/183), meanwhile, caught 96-of-143 targets for 1,119 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 2.32 yards per route run in his final college season. Fantasy managers should monitor Felton’s training camp reports this summer, as he could have a matchup-based WR5 role if everything falls into place.