NFL DFS Week 16 Saturday Playbook: Top DraftKings & Top FanDuel Picks
Published: Dec 23, 2023
Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season is nigh and it’s a very special weekend of football as we enter the semifinals for fantasy football. If you won last week’s matchup despite some underwhelming performances from Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Dak Prescott, etc. then congratulations on moving on! But as we look into this NFL DFS slate for Saturday, we have a very condensed pool of players to consider. We get a matchup in the AFC North with the Cincinnati Bengals, sans Ja'Marr Chase, traveling to Western Pennsylvania to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers who will start Mason Rudolph at quarterback. And we close out this two-gamer with the red-hot Buffalo Bills traveling West for some sunshine this holiday season as they take on the Los Angeles Chargers. We’ll have you covered with NFL DFS Projections and full Match-Up Previews for both games as well. Let’s take a look at the top NFL DFS lineup picks and strategies to bring in a little more green this holiday weekend!
The NFL is delivering the goods with a variety of slates. Saturday gives us this two-game slate which we’re previewing here. Then the Sunday main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel is only a nine-game slate and it does parallel last Sunday’s slate quite a bit. Then on Monday, Christmas Day, Howard will have you covered with a full NFL DFS Playbook for the three-game slate. For this specific slate, it’s a concentrated player pool and most of the exposure likely flocks to two teams: the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills.
Early in the week, we have the Bengals as favorites by about a field goal with a low over/under of roughly 38 points. That gives Cincinnati an implied total of about 20 points more or less. Jake Browning has been just fine in three starts as Cincinnati’s starting quarterback, but the team will be without Ja'Marr Chase for this match-up. Browning has thrown for at least 275 yards in each of his three starts and the Steelers have some injuries and suspensions on defense that we’ll get to shortly.
In the late game on this slate, the Buffalo Bills and this new-look Joe Brady offense, take on the Los Angeles Chargers. This game’s over/under opened at 42.5 points early in the week with Buffalo coming in as 11-point favorites. However, the implied total has moved to 44 points and Buffalo is now favored by 12.5 points on some sportsbooks. The Bills, at about 27.5 points, have the largest implied team total on the slight by far. And to top it all off, they’re going against one of the worst defenses in the league. In a year where injuries have decimated the quarterback position, which is reflected in this slate, we have the Bills turning a corner at the right time as they make their playoff push.
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | Matchup (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
QB | Josh Allen | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 8100 | 9500 |
He’s the most expensive quarterback on the two-game slate by $2,000 on DraftKings. It wasn’t the prettiest performance from Allen last week, but he found the end zone on the ground for the third straight game. But 97 passing yards left people wanting more. Fortunately, it’s a massive “get right” spot to please everybody in this offense for Week 16. Allen only attempted 15 passes last week in a game that was against a solid defense in some difficult weather conditions. It’s the exact opposite this week. We have a controlled environment against a SOFT defense. Aidan O’Connell just torched this defense for four passing touchdowns which led to the firing of Brandon Staley by the Los Angeles Chargers. This game is a perfect spot to get Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs stacks because Diggs hasn’t popped off for a huge game in quite some time and this is the perfect opportunity to get him going as the Bills fight to get back into the playoff hunt. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
QB | Jake Browning | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 6100 | 7800 |
Browning has been just fine as the Bengals starting quarterback but now we have to see how he’ll do without Ja’Marr Chase in this game. In three games as the starter, he has 953 passing yards, five touchdowns through the air with two more on the ground, and he’s thrown a pair of interceptions. Last week he was one yard short of posting his third straight game with 23 fantasy points on DraftKings. He’s $6,100 for this slate but it’s still manageable. If we’re building 20+ lineups, most of your exposure likely lands on Josh Allen but Browning is intriguing. The NFL just suspended Damontae Kazee for the rest of the season and Mike Tomlin announced on Monday that Minkah Fitzpatrick would miss this game. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
QB | Easton Stick | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 5500 | 6400 |
Stick did enough to provide some value last week. On the Thursday-Monday slate he got to 20 points on DraftKings, despite three turnovers. That game got out of hand quickly for Los Angeles and this one could as well. He did complete over 70% of his passes and still threw for three touchdowns. Ball security has certainly been a problem as he’s fumbled twice in back-to-back games. The Bills defense has certainly taken a beating in terms of injuries, but the players they do have are stepping up. Over their last four games the Bills have 12 sacks, nine takeaways, 70 points allowed, and they’ve allowed just 268.5 yards per game in that span. The Chargers are a little beat up on the offensive side, but there is likely garbage time available to this team if the Bills run up the score. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
QB | Mason Rudolph | SEA @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 4800 | 6600 |
It’s a two-game slate so we’ll just acknowledge all four quarterbacks, even if this guy is awful. Currently, the Steelers are planning as if Mason Rudolph will be the starting quarterback. Mike Tomlin announced on Thursday that Kenny Pickett would not play in this game. Rudolph hasn’t really seen consistent playing time since the 2019 season. Fortunately, he gets a full week to prepare for this matchup after taking over for Mitchell Trubisky in the fourth quarter of last week’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. On a short slate, you can’t be content with Rudolph getting you 15 fantasy points for 3X value. You probably need more like 20-25 fantasy points from him as a contrarian option if you hope to hit anything big. Game Type: GPP Weather: Rain | ||||
RB | Austin Ekeler | WAS @ NYJ Sun 1:00 | 7200 | 6800 |
You can’t start him with any confidence. Truthfully, on a short slate you don’t even need to go here. He’s the most expensive running back but at $7,200 it is a bit of a discount because we know what the upside is. He looked horrendous in Week 15. He only had five carries and four receptions. We’re going to need him to be heavily involved in the passing game. Fortunately, he has at least four receptions in three of his last four games. You probably don’t have to go here especially if you’re hunting for a bring back to a Bills stack. But DFS is a reactionary game and last week’s performance might keep players off Ekeler. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
RB | James Cook | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 6900 | 8500 |
Cook’s usage has gone through the roof since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator. He’s averaging over 20 touches and 140 total yards per game since Brady took over, and despite the tough matchup against Dallas last week, he found the end zone twice and he’s now second in rushing yards among all running backs. The Chargers are horrible against all positions in fantasy football and the same applies to the running back position where they’ve allowed 10 touchdowns on the ground including three in their last two games. If Zamir White can run wild on this defense I have complete faith in Cook at $6,900 if he’s getting 20+ touches. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
RB | Joe Mixon | CLE @ HOU Sun 1:00 | 6800 | 8300 |
Since Week 11, when Joe Burrow got injured, Mixon has five touchdowns and truly only one bad performance in fantasy football. He has 21 receptions over his last five games while averaging over 18 touches per game in that span. The Steelers run defense isn’t great. The Indianapolis Colts ran for 170 on them last week for reference. Mixon works in Cincy stacks or even as a one-off and he’s a great pivot off Cook. Could this be that textbook “Joe Mixon Goes Off” game that we see once or twice a year? Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
RB | Jaylen Warren | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 5400 | 6000 |
Warren may draw significant rostership for a few reasons. The Steelers may be running Mason Rudolph out there at quarterback which could signal a more run-heavy approach from Pittsburgh. Warren’s partner, Najee Harris, is questionable as he’s played through a knee injury the last two games. So Warren, who is $1,400 cheaper than Mixon, may draw consideration as a mid-range/value play on this slate. In Week 15, Warren boasted a 69% snap share and 83% route participation rate which were season highs. So you have to ask yourself, was that due to Najee’s knee injury or is this a trend that continues? Warren has the kind of talent where he can make plays on his own. He can break tackles and generate yards after contact. The change in quarterback and injury to his counterpart might see his usage tick up in this particular matchup. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
RB | Najee Harris | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 5000 | 6100 |
Harris had a forgettable Week 15 performance in what should have been a good opportunity for him. But his inefficiency has reared its ugly head. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry over his last three games and he lost a fumble last week. That is where this knee issue is concerning me because it’s truly not hard to just consider Warren for $400 more on DraftKings. Harris did rush for 99 yards and a touchdown four weeks ago against the Bengals but given how bad he’s been of late it and he was able to log full practice sessions on Wednesday and Thursday. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
RB | Chase Brown | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 4900 | 5200 |
Brown has been active each of the last four games and in Cincy’s last three games he has at least nine touches in each outing. In his last two games he has exactly three receptions in each so that’s a nice bump in value for a full PPR website like DraftKings. We love the matchup for Mixon and the same is true for Brown who has taken on a larger role and is far from a dart throw on this slate. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
RB | Isaiah Spiller | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 4400 | 5300 |
I don’t want to dwell too much on what we saw from the Chargers last Thursday against the Las Vegas Raiders. That game got out of hand quickly and it resulted in Spiller getting 16 carries for 50 yards and Austin Ekeler was a complete non-factor. However, the Buffalo Bills come to town and this could be another scenario where the game gets out of hand and Kelley/Spiller see extra work. I’m still not overly confident in either, but you have to take some risks on shorter slates like these. Colby Conway offered a speculative outlook for Spiller in this week’s Red Zone Report, so I suggest looking into that article if you’re of the mindset Spiller is a cheap source for high-value red zone carries. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Stefon Diggs | CLE @ HOU Sun 1:00 | 8700 | 8900 |
If there is one guy I’m playing in all my lineups for this slate, it’s Stefon Diggs. I know he’s a chalk play. And the only way to get leverage here is to fade entirely or go all in. Diggs has just 21 receptions in his last five games. In four of those performances, he didn’t even finish with double-digit fantasy points. He has just one touchdown in that span as well. This isn’t quite the Stefon Diggs we know and love and we’ve heard some subtle rumors that he’s been frustrated with the offense, even if it’s looked better the last two weeks. If there’s ever a time to put your star wide receiver’s mind at ease it’s this matchup. Aidan O’Connell was able to get Davante Adams eight receptions (on a dozen targets) for 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown last week against this Chargers defense. Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers even managed to find the end zone as well. The Chargers cannot defend the wide receiver position. They’ve allowed 18 touchdowns to opposing wideouts on the year. It’s the holiday season and the Bills need to get their WR1 going ahead of their playoff push. This is a prime opportunity for Diggs to put up a huge performance. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Tee Higgins | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 6500 | 7800 |
We are looking at a $2,000+ drop from the most expensive receiver on the slate to the next closest active receiver on the slate. With Ja’Marr Chase and Keenan Allen ruled out, Higgins is the second-most expensive receiver at $6,500 on DraftKings. With Chase out, we should expect Joey Porter Jr. to shadow Tee Higgins. Porter shadowed Chase the first time these two teams met and Chase had just four catches on as many targets with 81 yards. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, the Steelers have allowed the fewest points to wide receivers, including the second-fewest to perimeter receivers over the last four weeks. That’s a testament to Porter’s shadow coverage. At $6,500 a lot of DFS players will plug him in, but it’s a difficult matchup so don’t think he’s a lock for each lineup you make. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | Gabe Davis | JAC @ TB Sun 4:05 | 5300 | 6300 |
There are some players you analyze with the matchup, target share, narrative street, etc. Then there are guys like Davis who can break a slate or sink your lineup. In three of his last four games, Davis has zero receptions, thus returning zero fantasy points. But in the one game in that sample size he went for 6-105-1. That is the frustrating nature of rostering Davis in any capacity. If you’re doing one lineup, you can probably avoid him. I feel like it’s more of a Diggs game anyway to keep him happy. But Davis is mostly a high upside play you include in some Buffalo stacks. Those zeroes in his player profile will naturally draw exposure down. Do I love the play? No. But I’ll have Davis in at least five of my 20 lineups and I’m only playing him in stacks with Josh Allen. The Chargers are a top five matchup for opposing wide receivers and he found the end zone in his last game against them. Game Type: GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
WR | Diontae Johnson | CLE @ HOU Sun 1:00 | 5100 | 7000 |
After not scoring at all during the 2022 season, Johnson has four touchdowns this year including three straight games with a score. The ceiling isn’t great but on a two-game slate you’ll take any sort of production. Now two of those touchdowns were fairly meaningless. But so what? We’re expecting garbage time and meaningless production for most of the Steelers offensive weapons. In games where Rudolph did get the start, Johnson is averaging about five receptions for 60+ yards on a per game basis. If he finds the end zone, even if it’s meaningless, then we’re cooking with gas. He likely gets shadowed by DJ Turner II but Johnson did catch five passes for 40 yards the last time these two met. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Joshua Palmer | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 5000 | 6000 |
Palmer made his return last Thursday night and caught all four of his targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. The big play was the 79-yard touchdown in the third quarter which proved to be one of the few highlights for the Chargers last week. Without Keenan Allen, Palmer didn’t see a ton of targets but he did flash the big play upside and this is a negative game script. That is always a boost to pass catchers and Easton Stick did show last week that he can produce through the air. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | George Pickens | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 4700 | 6200 |
I’m incredibly low on Pickens for Saturday’s slate, so watch him pop off for two big scores. Ultimately, there’s growing frustration with Pickens in the locker room. There have been questions regarding his effort, especially after he failed to block for Jaylen Warren on a potential score last week and Warren fired back basically saying “I would have blocked for him, but everyone plays the game differently…” On top of that, we have a huge quarterback downgrade. Mason Rudolph would be wise to lean more on Johnson and Freiermuth in the passing game. But there is a small part of me that is curious if Pickens is slightly in the doghouse. At the end of the day, this is still a great price tag for a player that typically sees six or seven targets and has a ton of upside. We should be mindful of the shadow report for Pickens. Our very own, JB Barry, has published his WR/CB Match-Up Report and he has Chidobe Awuzie shadowing him. In this game earlier this year, Pickens was held catchless on two targets when Awuzie shadowed him. While neither Awuzie nor DJ Turner II are world beaters, but they do tend to shadow, and the quarterback downgrade might have a big impact on Pickens’ fantasy outlook. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | Tyler Boyd | SEA @ TEN Sun 1:00 | 4600 | 5900 |
When Boyd gets more opportunities, he makes the most of them. Ja’Marr Chase is out for this game so that elevates Boyd to playing more two-wide receiver sets. Moreover, we’ve already touched on Tee Higgins likely being shadowed by Joey Porter Jr. Back in Week 10, when Higgins was out, Boyd popped off for eight receptions on a dozen targets for 117 yards against the Houston Texans. He can likely get seven or eight targets in an expanded role with Porter shadowing Higgins. But we also know that Jake Browning will lean heavily on his tight ends. Either way, Boyd is trending to be quite popular at $4,600 on DraftKings. Game Type: GPP Weather: Rain | ||||
WR | Khalil Shakir | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 3500 | 5000 |
Shakir has seen his snaps decrease overall since Dawson Knox returned. He only has two targets in his last two games but be mindful that every pass catcher on Buffalo took a hit last week. He still possesses big play upside similar to Rashid Shaheed Thursday night when he broke off a big touchdown for the New Orleans Saints. That’s basically what we’re hoping to cash in on with Shakir. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Alex Erickson | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 3100 | 4500 |
This applies to both Jalen Guyton and Erickson, but both players work well in a game stack as they’re incredibly affordable. Guyton easily has more potential for a big play, but Erickson did find the end zone last week after having seven targets against the Denver Broncos in in Week 14. I do think that Allen’s absence likely gives more snaps to Erickson out of the slot but there are plenty of cheap players and mouths to feed in this offense. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
WR | Allen Robinson | DET @ MIN Sun 1:00 | 3000 | 4800 |
Not a sexy play by any means, but we have a player at the minimum price tag on DraftKings who has three targets in each of his last three games. It just remains to be seen what kind of chemistry he’s been able to develop with Rudolph. He has three receptions in three of his last five games, but the production has still been minimal. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
WR | Andrei Iosivas | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 3000 | 4600 |
I'm going to touch on Trenton Irwin and Charlie Jones as well for this section. We have a big-name target in this offense missing in action. These players are the bare minimum at $3,000 on DraftKings. Irwin was a popular target in Week 11 for Browning following the departure of Joe Burrow in that eventful match-up with the Baltimore Ravens. It also helped that Tee Higgins missed that game as well. But Irwin has largely been uninvolved since that game. Iosivas has made plays when he’s been on the field so if there’s one player I want to see featured more, it would be him. Charlie Jones is also coming off a game where he had three targets last week and he gets work as a punt returner. You can double dip with Jones and the Bengals D/ST. If he brings one back for a touchdown, you’re getting a dozen points in that correlated stack. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 5000 | 6000 |
The shoulder injury is obviously a bit concerning. He’s the best tight end on the slate and the only one priced over $4,000 on DraftKings. The Los Angeles Chargers defense is coming off back-to-back games of allowing opposing tight ends to score so that bodes well for both Kincaid and Dawson Knox. After logging at least six targets in seven straight games, Kincaid only had two last week and I’m sure that’s left a sour taste in fantasy managers’ mouths. But let’s keep in mind, Josh Allen only attempted 15 pass attempts since it was the James Cook show. Kincaid has been limited in practice all week but he doesn’t carry an injury designation heading into Week 16. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
TE | Pat Freiermuth | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 3800 | 5100 |
Najee Harris isn’t the only offensive weapon on Pittsburgh dealing with a knee injury. Pat Freiermuth was limited earlier in the week with a similar injury so this is another player to monitor but like Kincaid, he doesn’t carry an injury designation as of Friday. Freiermuth does have at least three receptions in four straight games, but over his last three games he’s failed to top 30 receiving yards. If he’s healthy he’s an intriguing play. Since firing Matt Canada it does seem like the Steelers want to get Freiermuth going more, but the quality of quarterback play could hold him back. The Bengals are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the tight end. They’ve allowed six touchdowns to the position all year and over their last four games, opposing tight ends have racked up 39 receptions for 377 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
TE | Tanner Hudson | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 3600 | 5300 |
With Ja’Marr Chase ruled out for this game, you have to wonder how many extra looks Tanner Hudson receives. In six of Hudson’s last seven games he has at least four receptions and since Week 13 he’s the highest-graded tight end per Pro Football Focus. $3,600 on DraftKings is outlandishly cheap for Hudson as we know Jake Browning loves to take the safety net with his tight ends and Hudson offers a decent floor even if he only has one touchdown on the year. The Steelers have struggled to defend the tight end position of late. Over their last four games, Pittsburgh has surrendered five touchdowns and 26 receptions to opposing tight ends. He’s cheap and might just be one of my five highest-rostered players on this slate. If there are any limitations to Kincaid or if you need a cheaper option, Dawson Knox certainly comes into play. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
TE | Gerald Everett | ARI @ CHI Sun 4:25 | 3500 | 5200 |
Everett has strangely provided a very good floor at the tight end position the last four weeks. In that span he has 18 receptions on 25 targets and he’s delivering just about 40 yards per game. Is that much? No, but we’re building lineups for a two-game slate. But Easton Stick targeted him plenty last week. Despite the loss of Matt Milano, the Bills have been tough on opposing tight ends. But over the last two weeks they’ve allowed them to catch 13 passes for 132 yards. It’s a touchdown-dependent position, but even if he doesn’t score there might be a good enough floor from Everett at low cost. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
TE | Irv Smith | LV @ KC Mon 1:00 | 2500 | 4500 |
We already mentioned Tanner Hudson. He seems to be Jake Browning’s preferred target at the tight end position. However, monitoring inactives and Cincinnati’s roster management will be vital. Four tight ends had a target last week for Cincinnati. Drew Sample, Mitchell Wilcox, and Irv Smith Jr. all had at least one target last week in addition to Hudson’s workload. And these three players are all $2,500 on DraftKings, the bare minimum. So if you’re throwing darts at least you can spend down with one of these plays. A five-yard touchdown catch to any of the three will immediately put them at 3X value on DraftKings. I would say Smith and Sample are the preferred targets if you need to bargain hunt for a bare minimum tight end. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
DST | Cincinnati Bengals | CIN @ PIT Sat 4:30 | 3700 | 4200 |
Sure, they’re on the road and I normally wouldn’t pay $3,700 for the Bengals defense but they have a great matchup against Mason Rudolph who has made sporadic appearances the last handful of seasons. The Bengals are averaging three sacks per game over their last five contests and they have four takeaways in their last two games. They held the Steelers to just 16 points back in Week 12 when Kenny Pickett was under center. The only downside to this match-up is that the Steelers had plenty of success running the ball against Cincy in their last game. They ran for over 150 yards on 33 rush attempts and that helped the Steelers dominate time of possession (37:17) and if they lean more on Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in this matchup, that limits the sack and turnover upside for the Bengals. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
DST | Buffalo Bills | BUF @ LAC Sat 8:00 | 3500 | 5000 |
I already hyped up the Bills defensive stats in the Easton Stick section. The good news for Los Angeles is that they’ve had a few extra days to prepare for this game compared to Buffalo. But Stick threw an interception against the Raiders last week and he’s fumbled the ball four times in both his starts. The Bills defense just held the Cowboys to 10 points and 195 yards of offense. They’re coming in with swagger and the Chargers have an implied team total of about 16.5 points. The Bills seem due for a defensive/special teams touchdown. But it’s a short two-game slate so just play the defenses you can fit and pray for a touchdown. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny |
Josh Allen, QB | ||||
He’s the most expensive quarterback on the two-game slate by $2,000 on DraftKings. It wasn’t the prettiest performance from Allen last week, but he found the end zone on the ground for the third straight game. But 97 passing yards left people wanting more. Fortunately, it’s a massive “get right” spot to please everybody in this offense for Week 16. Allen only attempted 15 passes last week in a game that was against a solid defense in some difficult weather conditions. It’s the exact opposite this week. We have a controlled environment against a SOFT defense. Aidan O’Connell just torched this defense for four passing touchdowns which led to the firing of Brandon Staley by the Los Angeles Chargers. This game is a perfect spot to get Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs stacks because Diggs hasn’t popped off for a huge game in quite some time and this is the perfect opportunity to get him going as the Bills fight to get back into the playoff hunt. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Jake Browning, QB | ||||
Browning has been just fine as the Bengals starting quarterback but now we have to see how he’ll do without Ja’Marr Chase in this game. In three games as the starter, he has 953 passing yards, five touchdowns through the air with two more on the ground, and he’s thrown a pair of interceptions. Last week he was one yard short of posting his third straight game with 23 fantasy points on DraftKings. He’s $6,100 for this slate but it’s still manageable. If we’re building 20+ lineups, most of your exposure likely lands on Josh Allen but Browning is intriguing. The NFL just suspended Damontae Kazee for the rest of the season and Mike Tomlin announced on Monday that Minkah Fitzpatrick would miss this game. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Easton Stick, QB | ||||
Stick did enough to provide some value last week. On the Thursday-Monday slate he got to 20 points on DraftKings, despite three turnovers. That game got out of hand quickly for Los Angeles and this one could as well. He did complete over 70% of his passes and still threw for three touchdowns. Ball security has certainly been a problem as he’s fumbled twice in back-to-back games. The Bills defense has certainly taken a beating in terms of injuries, but the players they do have are stepping up. Over their last four games the Bills have 12 sacks, nine takeaways, 70 points allowed, and they’ve allowed just 268.5 yards per game in that span. The Chargers are a little beat up on the offensive side, but there is likely garbage time available to this team if the Bills run up the score. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Mason Rudolph, QB | ||||
It’s a two-game slate so we’ll just acknowledge all four quarterbacks, even if this guy is awful. Currently, the Steelers are planning as if Mason Rudolph will be the starting quarterback. Mike Tomlin announced on Thursday that Kenny Pickett would not play in this game. Rudolph hasn’t really seen consistent playing time since the 2019 season. Fortunately, he gets a full week to prepare for this matchup after taking over for Mitchell Trubisky in the fourth quarter of last week’s game against the Indianapolis Colts. On a short slate, you can’t be content with Rudolph getting you 15 fantasy points for 3X value. You probably need more like 20-25 fantasy points from him as a contrarian option if you hope to hit anything big. Game Type: GPP Weather: Rain | ||||
Austin Ekeler, RB | ||||
You can’t start him with any confidence. Truthfully, on a short slate you don’t even need to go here. He’s the most expensive running back but at $7,200 it is a bit of a discount because we know what the upside is. He looked horrendous in Week 15. He only had five carries and four receptions. We’re going to need him to be heavily involved in the passing game. Fortunately, he has at least four receptions in three of his last four games. You probably don’t have to go here especially if you’re hunting for a bring back to a Bills stack. But DFS is a reactionary game and last week’s performance might keep players off Ekeler. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
James Cook, RB | ||||
Cook’s usage has gone through the roof since Joe Brady took over as the offensive coordinator. He’s averaging over 20 touches and 140 total yards per game since Brady took over, and despite the tough matchup against Dallas last week, he found the end zone twice and he’s now second in rushing yards among all running backs. The Chargers are horrible against all positions in fantasy football and the same applies to the running back position where they’ve allowed 10 touchdowns on the ground including three in their last two games. If Zamir White can run wild on this defense I have complete faith in Cook at $6,900 if he’s getting 20+ touches. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Joe Mixon, RB | ||||
Since Week 11, when Joe Burrow got injured, Mixon has five touchdowns and truly only one bad performance in fantasy football. He has 21 receptions over his last five games while averaging over 18 touches per game in that span. The Steelers run defense isn’t great. The Indianapolis Colts ran for 170 on them last week for reference. Mixon works in Cincy stacks or even as a one-off and he’s a great pivot off Cook. Could this be that textbook “Joe Mixon Goes Off” game that we see once or twice a year? Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Jaylen Warren, RB | ||||
Warren may draw significant rostership for a few reasons. The Steelers may be running Mason Rudolph out there at quarterback which could signal a more run-heavy approach from Pittsburgh. Warren’s partner, Najee Harris, is questionable as he’s played through a knee injury the last two games. So Warren, who is $1,400 cheaper than Mixon, may draw consideration as a mid-range/value play on this slate. In Week 15, Warren boasted a 69% snap share and 83% route participation rate which were season highs. So you have to ask yourself, was that due to Najee’s knee injury or is this a trend that continues? Warren has the kind of talent where he can make plays on his own. He can break tackles and generate yards after contact. The change in quarterback and injury to his counterpart might see his usage tick up in this particular matchup. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Najee Harris, RB | ||||
Harris had a forgettable Week 15 performance in what should have been a good opportunity for him. But his inefficiency has reared its ugly head. He’s averaging just 3.1 yards per carry over his last three games and he lost a fumble last week. That is where this knee issue is concerning me because it’s truly not hard to just consider Warren for $400 more on DraftKings. Harris did rush for 99 yards and a touchdown four weeks ago against the Bengals but given how bad he’s been of late it and he was able to log full practice sessions on Wednesday and Thursday. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Chase Brown, RB | ||||
Brown has been active each of the last four games and in Cincy’s last three games he has at least nine touches in each outing. In his last two games he has exactly three receptions in each so that’s a nice bump in value for a full PPR website like DraftKings. We love the matchup for Mixon and the same is true for Brown who has taken on a larger role and is far from a dart throw on this slate. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Isaiah Spiller, RB | ||||
I don’t want to dwell too much on what we saw from the Chargers last Thursday against the Las Vegas Raiders. That game got out of hand quickly and it resulted in Spiller getting 16 carries for 50 yards and Austin Ekeler was a complete non-factor. However, the Buffalo Bills come to town and this could be another scenario where the game gets out of hand and Kelley/Spiller see extra work. I’m still not overly confident in either, but you have to take some risks on shorter slates like these. Colby Conway offered a speculative outlook for Spiller in this week’s Red Zone Report, so I suggest looking into that article if you’re of the mindset Spiller is a cheap source for high-value red zone carries. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Stefon Diggs, WR | ||||
If there is one guy I’m playing in all my lineups for this slate, it’s Stefon Diggs. I know he’s a chalk play. And the only way to get leverage here is to fade entirely or go all in. Diggs has just 21 receptions in his last five games. In four of those performances, he didn’t even finish with double-digit fantasy points. He has just one touchdown in that span as well. This isn’t quite the Stefon Diggs we know and love and we’ve heard some subtle rumors that he’s been frustrated with the offense, even if it’s looked better the last two weeks. If there’s ever a time to put your star wide receiver’s mind at ease it’s this matchup. Aidan O’Connell was able to get Davante Adams eight receptions (on a dozen targets) for 100+ receiving yards and a touchdown last week against this Chargers defense. Tre Tucker and Jakobi Meyers even managed to find the end zone as well. The Chargers cannot defend the wide receiver position. They’ve allowed 18 touchdowns to opposing wideouts on the year. It’s the holiday season and the Bills need to get their WR1 going ahead of their playoff push. This is a prime opportunity for Diggs to put up a huge performance. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Tee Higgins, WR | ||||
We are looking at a $2,000+ drop from the most expensive receiver on the slate to the next closest active receiver on the slate. With Ja’Marr Chase and Keenan Allen ruled out, Higgins is the second-most expensive receiver at $6,500 on DraftKings. With Chase out, we should expect Joey Porter Jr. to shadow Tee Higgins. Porter shadowed Chase the first time these two teams met and Chase had just four catches on as many targets with 81 yards. Per Mike Clay of ESPN, the Steelers have allowed the fewest points to wide receivers, including the second-fewest to perimeter receivers over the last four weeks. That’s a testament to Porter’s shadow coverage. At $6,500 a lot of DFS players will plug him in, but it’s a difficult matchup so don’t think he’s a lock for each lineup you make. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Gabe Davis, WR | ||||
There are some players you analyze with the matchup, target share, narrative street, etc. Then there are guys like Davis who can break a slate or sink your lineup. In three of his last four games, Davis has zero receptions, thus returning zero fantasy points. But in the one game in that sample size he went for 6-105-1. That is the frustrating nature of rostering Davis in any capacity. If you’re doing one lineup, you can probably avoid him. I feel like it’s more of a Diggs game anyway to keep him happy. But Davis is mostly a high upside play you include in some Buffalo stacks. Those zeroes in his player profile will naturally draw exposure down. Do I love the play? No. But I’ll have Davis in at least five of my 20 lineups and I’m only playing him in stacks with Josh Allen. The Chargers are a top five matchup for opposing wide receivers and he found the end zone in his last game against them. Game Type: GPP Weather: Light rain | ||||
Diontae Johnson, WR | ||||
After not scoring at all during the 2022 season, Johnson has four touchdowns this year including three straight games with a score. The ceiling isn’t great but on a two-game slate you’ll take any sort of production. Now two of those touchdowns were fairly meaningless. But so what? We’re expecting garbage time and meaningless production for most of the Steelers offensive weapons. In games where Rudolph did get the start, Johnson is averaging about five receptions for 60+ yards on a per game basis. If he finds the end zone, even if it’s meaningless, then we’re cooking with gas. He likely gets shadowed by DJ Turner II but Johnson did catch five passes for 40 yards the last time these two met. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Joshua Palmer, WR | ||||
Palmer made his return last Thursday night and caught all four of his targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. The big play was the 79-yard touchdown in the third quarter which proved to be one of the few highlights for the Chargers last week. Without Keenan Allen, Palmer didn’t see a ton of targets but he did flash the big play upside and this is a negative game script. That is always a boost to pass catchers and Easton Stick did show last week that he can produce through the air. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
George Pickens, WR | ||||
I’m incredibly low on Pickens for Saturday’s slate, so watch him pop off for two big scores. Ultimately, there’s growing frustration with Pickens in the locker room. There have been questions regarding his effort, especially after he failed to block for Jaylen Warren on a potential score last week and Warren fired back basically saying “I would have blocked for him, but everyone plays the game differently…” On top of that, we have a huge quarterback downgrade. Mason Rudolph would be wise to lean more on Johnson and Freiermuth in the passing game. But there is a small part of me that is curious if Pickens is slightly in the doghouse. At the end of the day, this is still a great price tag for a player that typically sees six or seven targets and has a ton of upside. We should be mindful of the shadow report for Pickens. Our very own, JB Barry, has published his WR/CB Match-Up Report and he has Chidobe Awuzie shadowing him. In this game earlier this year, Pickens was held catchless on two targets when Awuzie shadowed him. While neither Awuzie nor DJ Turner II are world beaters, but they do tend to shadow, and the quarterback downgrade might have a big impact on Pickens’ fantasy outlook. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Tyler Boyd, WR | ||||
When Boyd gets more opportunities, he makes the most of them. Ja’Marr Chase is out for this game so that elevates Boyd to playing more two-wide receiver sets. Moreover, we’ve already touched on Tee Higgins likely being shadowed by Joey Porter Jr. Back in Week 10, when Higgins was out, Boyd popped off for eight receptions on a dozen targets for 117 yards against the Houston Texans. He can likely get seven or eight targets in an expanded role with Porter shadowing Higgins. But we also know that Jake Browning will lean heavily on his tight ends. Either way, Boyd is trending to be quite popular at $4,600 on DraftKings. Game Type: GPP Weather: Rain | ||||
Khalil Shakir, WR | ||||
Shakir has seen his snaps decrease overall since Dawson Knox returned. He only has two targets in his last two games but be mindful that every pass catcher on Buffalo took a hit last week. He still possesses big play upside similar to Rashid Shaheed Thursday night when he broke off a big touchdown for the New Orleans Saints. That’s basically what we’re hoping to cash in on with Shakir. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Alex Erickson, WR | ||||
This applies to both Jalen Guyton and Erickson, but both players work well in a game stack as they’re incredibly affordable. Guyton easily has more potential for a big play, but Erickson did find the end zone last week after having seven targets against the Denver Broncos in in Week 14. I do think that Allen’s absence likely gives more snaps to Erickson out of the slot but there are plenty of cheap players and mouths to feed in this offense. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Allen Robinson, WR | ||||
Not a sexy play by any means, but we have a player at the minimum price tag on DraftKings who has three targets in each of his last three games. It just remains to be seen what kind of chemistry he’s been able to develop with Rudolph. He has three receptions in three of his last five games, but the production has still been minimal. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Andrei Iosivas, WR | ||||
I'm going to touch on Trenton Irwin and Charlie Jones as well for this section. We have a big-name target in this offense missing in action. These players are the bare minimum at $3,000 on DraftKings. Irwin was a popular target in Week 11 for Browning following the departure of Joe Burrow in that eventful match-up with the Baltimore Ravens. It also helped that Tee Higgins missed that game as well. But Irwin has largely been uninvolved since that game. Iosivas has made plays when he’s been on the field so if there’s one player I want to see featured more, it would be him. Charlie Jones is also coming off a game where he had three targets last week and he gets work as a punt returner. You can double dip with Jones and the Bengals D/ST. If he brings one back for a touchdown, you’re getting a dozen points in that correlated stack. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Dalton Kincaid, TE | ||||
The shoulder injury is obviously a bit concerning. He’s the best tight end on the slate and the only one priced over $4,000 on DraftKings. The Los Angeles Chargers defense is coming off back-to-back games of allowing opposing tight ends to score so that bodes well for both Kincaid and Dawson Knox. After logging at least six targets in seven straight games, Kincaid only had two last week and I’m sure that’s left a sour taste in fantasy managers’ mouths. But let’s keep in mind, Josh Allen only attempted 15 pass attempts since it was the James Cook show. Kincaid has been limited in practice all week but he doesn’t carry an injury designation heading into Week 16. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny | ||||
Pat Freiermuth, TE | ||||
Najee Harris isn’t the only offensive weapon on Pittsburgh dealing with a knee injury. Pat Freiermuth was limited earlier in the week with a similar injury so this is another player to monitor but like Kincaid, he doesn’t carry an injury designation as of Friday. Freiermuth does have at least three receptions in four straight games, but over his last three games he’s failed to top 30 receiving yards. If he’s healthy he’s an intriguing play. Since firing Matt Canada it does seem like the Steelers want to get Freiermuth going more, but the quality of quarterback play could hold him back. The Bengals are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the tight end. They’ve allowed six touchdowns to the position all year and over their last four games, opposing tight ends have racked up 39 receptions for 377 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Tanner Hudson, TE | ||||
With Ja’Marr Chase ruled out for this game, you have to wonder how many extra looks Tanner Hudson receives. In six of Hudson’s last seven games he has at least four receptions and since Week 13 he’s the highest-graded tight end per Pro Football Focus. $3,600 on DraftKings is outlandishly cheap for Hudson as we know Jake Browning loves to take the safety net with his tight ends and Hudson offers a decent floor even if he only has one touchdown on the year. The Steelers have struggled to defend the tight end position of late. Over their last four games, Pittsburgh has surrendered five touchdowns and 26 receptions to opposing tight ends. He’s cheap and might just be one of my five highest-rostered players on this slate. If there are any limitations to Kincaid or if you need a cheaper option, Dawson Knox certainly comes into play. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Gerald Everett, TE | ||||
Everett has strangely provided a very good floor at the tight end position the last four weeks. In that span he has 18 receptions on 25 targets and he’s delivering just about 40 yards per game. Is that much? No, but we’re building lineups for a two-game slate. But Easton Stick targeted him plenty last week. Despite the loss of Matt Milano, the Bills have been tough on opposing tight ends. But over the last two weeks they’ve allowed them to catch 13 passes for 132 yards. It’s a touchdown-dependent position, but even if he doesn’t score there might be a good enough floor from Everett at low cost. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Irv Smith, TE | ||||
We already mentioned Tanner Hudson. He seems to be Jake Browning’s preferred target at the tight end position. However, monitoring inactives and Cincinnati’s roster management will be vital. Four tight ends had a target last week for Cincinnati. Drew Sample, Mitchell Wilcox, and Irv Smith Jr. all had at least one target last week in addition to Hudson’s workload. And these three players are all $2,500 on DraftKings, the bare minimum. So if you’re throwing darts at least you can spend down with one of these plays. A five-yard touchdown catch to any of the three will immediately put them at 3X value on DraftKings. I would say Smith and Sample are the preferred targets if you need to bargain hunt for a bare minimum tight end. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Cincinnati Bengals, DST | ||||
Sure, they’re on the road and I normally wouldn’t pay $3,700 for the Bengals defense but they have a great matchup against Mason Rudolph who has made sporadic appearances the last handful of seasons. The Bengals are averaging three sacks per game over their last five contests and they have four takeaways in their last two games. They held the Steelers to just 16 points back in Week 12 when Kenny Pickett was under center. The only downside to this match-up is that the Steelers had plenty of success running the ball against Cincy in their last game. They ran for over 150 yards on 33 rush attempts and that helped the Steelers dominate time of possession (37:17) and if they lean more on Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren in this matchup, that limits the sack and turnover upside for the Bengals. Game Type: GPP Weather: Cloudy | ||||
Buffalo Bills, DST | ||||
I already hyped up the Bills defensive stats in the Easton Stick section. The good news for Los Angeles is that they’ve had a few extra days to prepare for this game compared to Buffalo. But Stick threw an interception against the Raiders last week and he’s fumbled the ball four times in both his starts. The Bills defense just held the Cowboys to 10 points and 195 yards of offense. They’re coming in with swagger and the Chargers have an implied team total of about 16.5 points. The Bills seem due for a defensive/special teams touchdown. But it’s a short two-game slate so just play the defenses you can fit and pray for a touchdown. Game Type: GPP Weather: Sunny |