NFL DFS Week 16 Picks, Projections & Playbook for DraftKings & FanDuel

After what he's done over the last two games, I'm not going to piss in anyone's Cheerios and tell you not to use him. But anyone who has heard me over the past few days knows I don't think you're getting that Josh Allen. You're still getting a great QB in a solid match-up but he doesn't need to be Superman to beat the Patriots. But the floor is obviously high and the ceiling is, as we've seen, ridiculous. It's all a matter of what you can afford in your lineup builds.

FANDUEL ONLY – He's likely to be my lock-button QB on FanDuel this week for any cash lineups that don't have Bucky Irving. The match-up against a weak Dallas pass defense that is dealing with a variety of injuries in the secondary looks fantastic and if you like playful narratives, you can lean on the fact that Baker grew up in Texas but was a Packers fan and a Cowboys hater. Should be a fun one for him this week. 

If anyone needs a “get-right” game and a soft match-up for fantasy purposes, it's definitely Kyler. The Cardinals are desperate for a win, Kyler is posting messages on social media that he's getting Trey McBride into the end zone and the Panthers rank 30th in DVOA against the pass. Teams aren't throwing heavily on them, but they've allowed the most passing touchdowns on the season and opposing QBs have been extremely efficient with a 104.0 passer-rating against them. Oh yeah, and Kyler runs too!

I'm not all that trusting of Richardson, but the match-up is soft and DFS Ownership projections have the rest of the field on him in a serious way. I like the match-up a lot, especially with the fact that the Titans defense is stringer against the run than the pass. Maybe that has Shane Steichen pull back from Jonathan Taylor a bit and that helps unlock Richardson some more. Obviously the rushing upside is there, so if he can give us even a decent showing through the air, he'll be worth the investment…and risk.

Three games ago, Williams managed 256 passing yards with three touchdowns against these same Lions. Granted, a lot of the production was late when the Lions took their foot of the gas defensively. The game was already in-hand. But this Detroit defense is banged up and is already without Carlton Davis. Brian Branch is questionable. If Williams can keep his head on straight and really utilize the receiving weapons he has, he could be a strong, under-the-radar tournament option.

Take that rain-soaked debacle of a Thursday Night game away and don't ever refer to it again, please. In the four games prior to that, Stafford was averaging 260 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He's got tow of the fiercest weapons in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and will take on a Jets defense that has allowed an average of 285 passing yards with seven touchdowns through the air over their last five games. The Rams have everything to play for while Jets are going nowhere. Aaron Rodgers will likely try to sling the rock and pas his stats which should keep Stafford throwing as well. 

Now we're moving into GPP tournament pay-downs and O'Connell is in a great spot as the Jaguars rank near the bottom in almost every defensive metric against the pass. We just watched Aaron Rodgers beat them up for three passing touchdowns and O'Connell should be an efficient option. With weapons like Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers, O'Connell deserves some consideration for a tournament as using him will open up plenty of salary for other positions.

People think I'm a little crazy because Jones has more interceptions than TD passes, but after watching him throw for 294 yards and two touchdowns against the Jets last week, I'm VERY intrigued with this match-up against the Raiders who are without Maxx Crosby and could also be missing their top corner Nate Hobbs. The Raiders aren't allowing a ton of passing yards each week, but they give up more than the Jets are and they've also allowed 25 passing touchdowns which is third-highest in the league. It won't be my primary GPP lineup but I'm building one with a Jags stack to see where it goes. 

The cheapest of all the starting quarterbacks and, funny enough, the highest-owned QB according to DFS Ownership projections. I'm not really sure what everyone sees in Penix or if it's just a matter of the Giants defense being terrible, but everyone is on him this week and with such high ownership numbers, he could be one of the cash game free squares we all love. Personally, I think the Falcons go run-heavy which will take pressure of Penix, but it will also take the ball out of his hands, so I really don't see a lot of GPP upside here. But a free square in cash at this price will do absolute wonders for our lineup build.

The Giants run defense has not been tested over the last two weeks as the Ravens let Lamar Jackson throw and the Saints offensive line was banged-up This week, I feel like the Falcons are going to have to keep Bijan heavily involved t help take some of the pressure off Penix. Prior to the Saints game, the Giants run defense allowed over 100 yards to Rico Dowdle, over 100 to the tandem of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White the week before that and over 100 to Chuba Hubbard the week before that. With all of the injuries this defense has had, Bijan should have a field day and I'm even tempted to use both him and Tyler Allgeier in a cash lineup together.

With no David Montgomery and a match-up against a run-funnel defense like that of the Bears, it's no wonder that Gibbs is expected to be the most-rostered running back this week. Chicago is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the seventh-most rushing touchdowns and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. He'll be spelled by Craig Reynolds at times, but this backfield belongs to Gibbs and he should have little to no issues delivering the goods to us this week. 

If you're going to buy into Josh Allen being your cash-game quarterback, you should definitely consider Cook for your tournament lineups. The Patriots are allowing the 12th most rushing yards per game, the 10th most fantasy points pr game to the running back position and 13 rushing touchdowns allowed. They just got decimated by James Conner and Jonathan Taylor had just under 100 yards against them the week before that. I expect the Bills to lean on Cook a bunch and then maybe turn things over to Ray Davis late in the game, but Cook should definitely eat before he heads to the bench for some well-deserved rest.

Conner is always the most underrated running back in the NFL and the more people doubt him, the more shares I pick up and the more money I make using hm. He'll probably be leaned on a little more than usual by the field, considering he's facing Carolina, but he won't be so chalky that I won't want to include him in my tournament lineups as well. The Panthers are allowing the most rushing yards per game, the most fantasy points per game to the running back position and the second-most rushing touchdowns, so why wouldn't we want to lock him down?

The rushing totals aren't there which is why Achane is GPP only for me, but he's in the Playbook because of his work in the passing game. Terron Armstead is questionable so we need to see the status of the offensive line, but with Tyreek Hill questionable and Jaylen Waddle doubtful, there should be a heavier lean on Achane both rushing and receiving. He's averaging eight targets and seven catches per game over the last three weeks, so if there's an added lean on him, the numbers could get juicy.

FANDUEL ONLY – I would love to see ownership low here after Chuba Hubbard failed to produce, but this Dallas run defense is still putrid and I am more than happy to use Bucky against them. He's playing slightly fewer snaps than Rachaad White, but he continues to see a strong workload. With two 100-yard efforts over the last three games and with the increased target share, I'm more than happy to use him against Dallas. If using Baker in cash, use Bucky in GPP, but I am not going to be shy about using Bucky in cash games as well.

What? Hubbard? After last week? Yes indeed. As Taylor Swift says, shake it off. It was a bad game. Nothing you can do about it. But Hubbard is the go-to guy for the Panthers and Dave Canales is using him for every down. He's active in the passing game and sees double-digit carries every week. There's no concern of losing goal line touches as Jonathan Brooks is on IR and this is a nice match-up against the Cardinals who rank 15th in DVOA against the run and allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position.

When it comes to cash games, just take the free square pay-down. I don't know if you need to do it if you are using Michael Penix Jr in your lineup, but if you aren't, Taylor should be highly-owned thanks to his price tag. The 49ers will be without Trent Williams which definitely hurts and Deebo Samuel will also get some rushing work, but Taylor is still going to be the lead back in a Kyle Shanahan offense and will be able to provide some value. Again, with high ownership, how he does is irrelevant. If everyone is using him, you may as well follow suit in cash, GPP tournaments – I'll have some exposure, but not a lot.

He's really good. That's the extent of my analysis. Doesn't matter how good Denzel Ward is or how much double-coverage he sees. He's an absolute stud. If you can afford the price tag, then by all means. He is obviously cash game eligible, but with the cost, I'll probably only use him in tournaments. But I'm definitely going t be using hm. 

He'll see a lot of Sauce Gardner, but that was my rationale for not using Brian Thomas Jr. in my lineups last week and look how that turned out. If you want to see how the Jets pass defense has been faring lately, then scroll up to the Mac Jones section. I lay it all out for you there.

FANDUEL ONLY – The Dallas defense will be without Trevon Diggs and Mike Evans is looking to build up his numbers so he can record his 11th-straight season with 1,000 receiving yards. Right now he needs 84 yards per game over the final three weeks and you know Baker is going to want to get him the ball as much as possible. The Cowboys are allowing the 12th most passing yards per game this season, so expect Evans to get plenty close to the overall numbers he needs.

WHAT IS THIS PRICE ON DRAFTKINGS???? Are you serious? Listen, I don't care that he put up a zero or that Puka Nacua is out-targeting him. Kupp is way too talented, way too productive and way too valuable to be treated this way. I won't use him on FD, but he's everywhere for me on DK. EVRYWHERE!!

I love the price for Adams here on DK as well, especially when we know that Aaron Rodgers is going to lean on him every chance he gets. He's averaging 11 targets per game over the last five, has touchdowns in three-straight and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts. The Rams rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass, 17th in DVOA against the WR1 and they allow the 12th most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. If another 11 targets are coming his way this week, he's going to erupt once again. 

FANDUEL ONLY – If you're stacking Bucs and you need something coming back, Lamb is the obvious play. And yes, you can also use him as a one-off. Tampa ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass, 14th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. He is off the injury report and is coming off back-to-back games with a touchdown. His ceiling is always high against a soft pass defense and Tampa is no different.

Now that it's Drew Lock under center and not Tommy Cutlets or Tim Boyle, I'm back in on Nabers. He sees the highest target share of any Giants pass-catchers and will be force-fed more in this game against the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 21st in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of close to 80 yards per game to them. Nabers should deliver a strong performance and this DK Price tag is so tasty. 

The Giants pass defense is terrible and Penix is going to have to lean on London when he does throw the football. London is a great route-runner with great hands and we expect offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to instruct his QB that London is the first-look on every passing play. They'll find ways to be creative should the Giants start to increase the coverage, but by that point it could be too late.  

I was dumb enough to fade him last week but I don't make the same mistakes twice. Thomas sees nearly a 30% target share and now gets a much softer match-up with the Raiders. Las Vegas ranks 22nd in DVOA against the pass and 20th against the WR1. While they don't give up huge yardage numbers through the air but they do allow the third-most passing touchdowns this season. 

With Deebo Samuel stinking up the joint, Jennings has become the lean for Brock Purdy when it comes to moving the chains and when they get into the red zone. Kyle Shanahan will try to keep him away from Jalen Ramsey as much as possible and try to get him up against Kader Kohou. I expect a strong target share which will keep him as a fantastic bargain, especially with this DK price. 

I have him listed as a GPP-only play because of the struggles we've seen throughout the season. But I ask you this – if he wasn't stupidly drafted in the 2nd round of season-long leagues, would we be as disappointed in Harrison as every is right now? Probably not. Rookies struggle. What can you do? But I like this match-up against the Panthers and I expect the Cardinals to try and move him around enough that he won't be opposite Jaycee Horn the entire time. I'm using him in a Arizona stack this week and may even consider him as a one-off in tournaments as well. 

He sees a heavy target share and moves the chains. With O'Connell back under center, I will happily use Meyers as a pay-down in cash games and a piece coming back against a Jags stack. I don't love him in tournaments because I think his ceiling is capped, but again, if it's paying down for him or paying up for Brock Bowers against a Jags stack, I'll stay with Meyers.

His target share was steadily on the rise until last week when Jalen Coker came back, but he still delivered double-digit PPR points. He's a great high-floor cash game option and I will happily use him as such. Like Meyers, I don't mind using him as the come-back against my Cardinals stack, but I'm more inclined to use Hubbard in that fashion. Also, keep in mind that Xavier Legette is out and both Coker and David Moore are questionable, so if they're out, I will likely elevate Thielen even more.

LATE ADD – Can't help it. Can't quite him. Especially on DK where he is basically the same price as Patrick Taylor. In GPP lineups where I need a pay-down, since everyone is flocking to Taylor, I'm going to hedge with Debo. I think they get creative with him and get the ball in his hands, especially near the goal-line.

He's the No. 1 TE in football and he's going up against a Jaguars team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the tight end and allows the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. He'll be leaned on heavily in the passing attack and should have no trouble delivering on his price tag. 

When Kyler Murray starts posting on social media that he's going to get McBride into the end zone, it turns this into the biggest no-brainer on the slate if you're paying up at the position. Carolina ranks 30th in DVOA against the TE, they allows the most fantasy points per game to the position and McBride sees more targets than anyone on this Cardinals team. Lock him down and if using Kyler in GPP tournaments, be sure to pair these two up in your lineup.  

The Dolphins rank 24th in DVOA against the tight end and with both Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings struggling with drops, Kittle is starting to see more targets each week. He's seen 21 targets over the last four games and has three games with 60 or more receiving yards, one 100-yard effort and one touchdown. I prefer McBride  and Bowers if paying up but if you need to save a few shekels, go with Kittle.

FANDUEL ONLY – He wasn't utilized much last week against Carolina, but should see an increased workload against the Bucs this week. Tampa Bay ranks 29th in DVOA against the TE and they're allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position, He's more of a red zone threat than he is a workhorse between the 20s but it's half-point PPR here on FanDuel anyway.

What I like most about Strange is that the targets are consolidated in Jacksonville. Mac Jones throw to Brian Thomas Jr and to Strange. That's it. In fact, he's seen a 26.1% target share in games he's replaced Evan Engram, so that is extremely encouraging. The Raiders rank 26th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position. 

If you're REALLY looking to punt the position, then Okonkwo is the guys I am looking at. The Colts rank 22nd in DVOA against the TE and are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. He saw a whopping 10 targets last week against the Bengals and delivered eight catches for 59 yards. If we can get another showing out of him like that, we're making money.

The Vikings have been one of the most productive defenses for fantasy. they've allowed the second-fewest points per game and have the second-most takeaways this season. Geno Smith is definitely prone to interceptions and there's some rain in the forecast which could make it a sloppy game as well.

The Colts have the sixth-most takeaways this season, their defensive line is at full health and Mason Rudolph is the QB for Tennessee. Tony Pollard is also banged up. The Titans also have the sixth-lowest implied points total for this game, so using the Colts seems prudent.

The Cardinals have been a middle-of-the-pack defense for most of the season, but this match-up against Carolina could certainly help boost their stats. The run defense has improved and Arizona is allowing the 10th-fewest points per game. If they can get a jump on the Panthers like the Cowboys did last week, then we've got a solid mid-tier D to play.

As bad as the Bengals defense has been all year, their fantasy value continues to tick up over the past few weeks. Teams are trying to keep pace with Joe Burrow and the offense and that is opening them up to mistakes and turnovers that the Bengals have capitalized on recently. With Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center, I expect another string showing from this defensive unit.

While the Falcons are the most expensive defense on DraftKings, they are middle of the pack on FanDuel and that has me VERY interested in them over there. The Giants are going back to Drew Lock who is no stranger to turnovers, but even more important is Grady Jarrett and the pass-rush against a highly suspect Giants offensive line.  

It's Anthony Richardson. I get it, lot of people like him this week. But if you don't believe in him, then why wouldn't you look to the Titans. Their defense scored nine fantasy points two weeks ago against the Jaguars and I cannot say the Colts are that much better. If you just want to punt and go cheap, I'd rather use them than either the Jaguars or Raiders.