NFL DFS Week 14 Playbook: Top DraftKings & Top FanDuel Picks

Bills vs Chiefs has really become one of the most heated rivalries in the AFC and it all comes down to Allen versus Patrick Mahomes. While they have yet to square off this season, the Bills have averaged 33 points per game over their last three meetings and Allen has averaged 324 passing yards per game with 10 passing touchdowns and no interceptions. He's also averaged 53 rushing yards per game over that span with one rushing touchdown to his credit. Regardless of whatever struggles you've seen from Allen in the turnover department, it is clear that he gets up for these games and we definitely want to be a part of that.

What I love about Mahomes is just how low the ownership is likely to be this week, even in this rivalry match-up. I am well-aware that our current DFS Ownership Projections do not reflect that, but knowing the masses and what directions the lineup optimizers will probably take, I believe we should be able to grab Mahomes and potentially stack him with Travis Kelce at a relative discount. The dropped passes, the struggles against teams like Green Bay, Philadelphia and Denver, all of that will continue to pile up and given the pricing, will scare people off. Not me. I'll look to Mahomes averaging 329 passing yards and 50 rushing yards per game over his last three against the Bills and while he's got four interceptions to go along with his seven touchdowns, he's also facing a secondary that has been weakened by injuries over the course of the season. Games like these are what Mahomes was built for and regardless of his weaponry, he's not going to let us down this week. 

FanDuel is raising that price on us so we're going to have to decide whether we really want to pay up at the quarterback position this week. It's a nice match-up against the Seahawks who are allowing the ninth-most passing yard per game and 17 passing touchdowns on the season while allowing opposing QBs to post a 90.9 passer rating against them. He did struggle a bit against them two weeks ago in Seattle, but another game this close together, you know Kyle Shanahan has something up his sleeve.

Fields' first game back from the thumb injury came against the Lions in Detroit and while he only threw for 169 yards and a score, he did run for 104 yards against them. The bye week has afforded him and the Bears coaching staff some additional prep time this week and he's not only going to look to run the ball – something that keeps his floor nice and high – but also t be more efficient through the air. The Lions are allowing the eighth-most passing yards per game and they've allowed 20 touchdowns through the air. Fields should be able to build off their last meeting and put him in an excellent spot for DFS use this week. 

Everyone is down on Herbert and the Chargers offense after these last two weeks, but he's got a much softer defensive match-up here against the Broncos. Yes, Denver has showed some improvements, but as we just witnessed against Houston, they are still vulnerable. The key for the Chargers is in the personnel. Keenan Allen is a stud, but they need complementary receivers to help draw away the coverage. With Joshua Palmer not being activated for Sunday's game, they need to do something to enhance the receiving weapons or, at the least, their opportunities, to make this work. Quentin Johnston continues to struggle so either they need to get Austin Ekeler and Jalen Guyton more involved or they need to expand the role of Gerald Everett and the rest of the tight ends. Denver ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass and they allow the ninth-most passing yards, so keep a watchful eye here. Herbert could end up being a great, low-owned GPP option this week.

On the other side of this Broncos/Chargers game, we also like Wilson, especially at this discounted price. Joe Lombardi's offense is really starting to jell and even though they dropped this last road game to the Texans, they are still showing strong signs of life. Prior to last week, Wilson had gone five-straight weeks without an interception and while his passing totals haven't been huge over the last six games, he's brought back some of the rushing element to his game and has a rushing touchdown in each of his last two. We already know how vulnerable this Chargers defense is, allowing the second-most passing yards per game, 20 passing touchdowns on the year and allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 97 passer-rating against them, sixth-highest in the league. 

While the Raiders have allowed an average of just 216.8 passing yards per game and rank 18th in DVOA against the pass, Dobbs becomes more than just an intriguing play when he's got Justin Jefferson returning to action. The trio of Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson puts one of the most elite group of pass-catchers on the field and will give the Raiders secondary fits throughout the game. Dobbs doesn't need to post outlandish numbers for him to return strong value for this price and with Las Vegas allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a 90.7 passer-rating (13th best in the league), Dobbs should be plenty efficient in this match-up.

I don't think we need to dive too deep into the analysis here, do we? It's really just a matter of whether or not you can fit his salary into your lineup build. It will definitely be easier to fit him into GPP tournament lineups, but we're hoping we can unearth some additional value plays the masses might be buying into this week to help us out a little. McCaffrey faced these same Seahawks two weeks ago and he ran for 114 yards and two touchdowns while also hauling in five catches for 25 yards. There is no reason to expect him to do anything but that this week. 

We're coming right back to Kamara again this week with a match-up against the Carolina Panthers who have seen a boost to their pass defense with the return of Jaycee Horn and Jeremy Chinn, but sit in the same boat with their run defense that they've been sitting in throughout the season. Not only are the Panthers allowing 125.2 rushing yards per game, but they've coughed up 20 rushing touchdowns this season, the most allowed in the NFL this season. And now with word that Derek Carr has cleared concussion protocol and is expected to start, we also know when should be living in Check-Down City, population: Kamara. It's going to be a tough pay-up if you're trying to get McCaffrey into your lineups, but that thousand-dollar discount you get on both sites should afford you some added plays, so maybe you mix each guy into the lineups this week.

Similar thoughts for Ekeler as we had for Herbert. We know the production has been bad and anyone who listened to me back in the preseason already knows how Kellen Moore's scheme doesn't cater to the pass-catching running backs. Just ask this guy. But the Chargers know they need to get back on-track after some horrendous showings on offense and with their receiving corps struggling and no Joshua Palmer this week, they're going to have to get Ekeler more involved. Look for him to run more routes and watch as Herbert tries to get him the ball out in space more. The Broncos rank 19th in DVOA against running back-pass-plays so there is vulnerability. We're not locked onto the play, but he is definitely going to be a contrarian move.

He was the discounted chalk-play everyone used in their lineups last week and failed to deliver strong totals. Not that it matters when a guy has 95-percent ownership, but now that the price has gone up, it's a matter of going back to the well and forgetting about last week's humdrum stat line. The Bengals are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game and have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns on the year. The Colts are just one game behind the Jaguars in the AFC South and smell blood in the water. Expect them to lean heavily on Moss to set the tone for the game and watch how things develop from there.

Seems like we've got White in the Playbook almost every week and given both his performance and price, we'll just keep going back to this well, especially with such strong match-ups. He's received double-digit carries in four of his last five games and has averaged five targets per game during that span. Over those five games he's scored at least one touchdown in four of them and in the one he didn't find the end zone, he still racked up 100 rushing yards to give you that tasty DFS bonus. The Falcons are allowing an average of 107.8 rushing yards per game this season and while they've only given up four rushing touchdowns, they rank 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays and have allowed three receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. The loss of Grady Jarrett on the defensive line has also left Atlanta more vulnerable on the ground lately, so we expect an improvement on White's numbers from the last time these two teams faced each other which were 34 rushing yards and 65 receiving yards. If we can get a bump from that total, we're in business. 

LATE ADD – I had Mixon in the Watch List all week, but didn't put him in the initial Playbook when other options opened up and word came down that Colts DT Grover Stewart was definitely going to play. But the weather seems to be clearing up and it looks like we may have a more normal game than originally perceived and that means Mixon should not only continue with his usual volume, but the Colts are also going to have to play to the pass a little more, especially with everyone's newfound love of Jake Browning. Outside zone runs and check-downs to Mixon are what we want and what we are expecting, so I'm putting him back into play this week.

In the two games since Joe Brady took over as the Bills OC, Cook has racked up 116 yards on 33 carries while adding nine catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. His snap share has remained a steady 45-percent, typical for such a strong passing offense, but the overall touches have increased as Brady tries to get Allen to put the ball into his play-makers' hands as opposed to doing everything on his own. Now, I still expect Allen do do his thing and rack up strong totals, but if you're not using Allen in a lineup, especially a GPP lineup, then Cook makes for an outstanding “contrarian” play.  The Chiefs rank 28th in DVOA against the run and are allowing an average of 114.7 rushing yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns on the season. 

LATE ADD – I find myself looking for a running back with a relatively high floor and less risk than trying to jam either CEH or even Jerick McKinnon into a cash lineup and while I don't love going up against a Jaguars run defense that is usually pretty solid and likely looking for a bounce-back after last week, I keep landing on Ford. His volume the last two weeks has been meh, but his work inside the passing game and inside the red zone seem to balance out my feelings about the overall match-up. The weather is expected to be clear, but there is the potential for some wind, so perhaps the Browns go a little more run-heavy early on to establish the ground game and take the pressure of the QB of choice. 

If you heard me on Friday's Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, then you knew this one was coming. I am very bullish on the Joe Lombardi revenge-game narrative and I fully expect to see plenty of running back pass-plays which has been a signature move for him for years. He made Alvin Kamara an elite running back and he boosted the value of Austin Ekeler so high that people actually thought they should draft him even though Lombardi was gone. Well, revenge is a dish best served cold and there won't be anything colder for Chargers fans than when they see Javonte on full-display in Lombardi's scheme. The Chargers are allowing 113.8 rushing yards per game and have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns on the season, but more importantly, they rank dead-last in DVOA against running back pass-plays and are allowing an average of 52 yards per game to them. I am reserving him for GPP tournaments, mostly because I'll probably be using Russell Wilson and Courtland Sutton in my cash lineups, but also because Samaje Perine still lurks and could see some work as well.

With Allen running nearly 60-percent of his snaps out of the slot, we aren't going to worry about him squaring off with Patrick Surtain. Not that the match-up against Ja'Quan McMillian is all that great, but give me the veteran wideout against a second-year slot-corner any day. Allen is a target-monster and with the rest of the Chargers receiving corps struggling, he should see more than enough volume to pay off this hefty price tag.

Sorry, folks, but at this price, it's GPP ONLY for Jefferson. No cash game play for me. Listen, I know he's an elite talent and I know how explosive he can be. But this is his first game back and Joshua Dobbs has definitely had his struggles in recent weeks. The match-up is great and I definitely don't want you to ignore him, but before we go locking him into every lineup, let's see how things look this week. Throw him into a GPP lineup and get that exposure, but be careful you don't over-commit 

We can talk about how great the Falcons cover-corners are, but we've not only seen them get beat deep, we've also seen Evans rack up 82 yards and a score on six catches against them earlier in the season. Including that game back in Week 7, Evans has averaged five catches for 89 yards and one touchdown per game. Yeah, seven touchdowns over his last seven games. How do we not lock him into our lineups at this point? We are hearing that A.J. Terrell is likely to shadow Evans which might push more people to Chris Godwin for the discount and while I'm not against that move at all, Evans has that explosiveness we like to see for GPP tournaments. 

I had Tee Higgins in the Watch List all week, but given the workload we've seen afforded to Chase by Jake Browning, I'll continue to turn to him as the go-to target in this Bengals offense. Now keep in mind – and this is not to deter you – I have a sneaking suspicion that we are all being fish-hooked into using Browning this week based on what happened against the Jaguars on Monday Night Football. A game with that high of a profile, and one that ravaged Survivor Pools like it did, stands out like a turd in a punchbowl and suddenly we're led to believe that a guy who went undrafted in in 2019 and has sat on practice squads up until this season is going to lead us to the Promised Land? Yeah, just like Joshua Dobbs, Will Levis, Tyson Bagent, Gardner Minshew, Taylor Heinicke, Tyrod Taylor, Bailey Zappe and Andy Dalton did. Solid initial efforts and then they pee down their leg when NFL defenses catch up to them the next week. But again, this is about Chase and with the Colts corners struggling in coverage, Chase should be able to produce so long as Browning keeps feeding him the double-digit targets he needs to do so.

This will be very similar to my thoughts on Ja'Marr Chase. I may not like Aidan O'Connell, but the 10 targets per game average Adams has seen over the last four weeks have me intrigued, especially against a Vikings pass defense that has allowed 224.3 passing yards per game this season with 15 touchdowns through the air. On top of that, the Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to post an extremely efficient 91.9 passer-rating against them. If this goes back-and forth even just a little, Adams will be leaned on heavily and should provide us with some strong numbers. For Chase, I will look at some cash game potential, especially if the masses are on him, but since I'm less-enamored with the Raiders, I will leave Adams to GPP tournaments.

While I expect a heavy workload for Zack Moss, we cannot ignore how things open up for the passing game when there is a strong rushing attack and that is exactly what we should see in this game. And while the Bengals pass defense numbers look solid, the loss of Cam Taylor-Britt is going to speak volumes to use as Pittman rakes them over the coals this week. He's averaged almost 14 targets per game over the last three games and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts, one of which he also found the end zone. So long as he continues to see this type of volume, he cannot be overlooked.

The contrarian move will be to go with Brandon Aiyuk, but seeing as how these two teams played just two weeks ago and Deebo was the focal point – seven catches for 79 yards with 15 rushing yards and a touchdown – how do we not look at him again in this match-up? Maybe Shanahan tries to outsmart Pete Carroll, but Deebo's ability to rack up significant yards after the catch is the allure. He's been a beast over these last two weeks and there is no reason to believe he can't duplicate the success. It will just be a matter of how much they put the ball into his hands.

The last time these teams squared off, it was Fields' first game back from the thumb injury and he and Moore looked like old pals who have been playing together for years. Moore racked up 96 yards and a touchdown on seven catches and he and Fields are already back in a rhythm we covet in DFS. Last week it was 11 catches for 114 yards, so expect the two to lock in together as the Bears look to play spoilers and expose the Lions' coverage shortcomings. They may only be allowing 230 passing yards per game, but they've given up 20 touchdowns through the air so we expect that number to rise after this week. 

Joe Lombardi's offense will be in full bloom against the team that let him go and that means a boatload of targets funneled Sutton's way. We identified him as a breakout candidate this year in this system and he's already at a career-high nine touchdowns and is just 63 receiving yards away from cashing that ticket for those who bet the over on his receiving yards prop this season. The Chargers rank 28th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 90 receiving yards per game to them. I expect to see a strong game from Sutton this week and will have him locked into both cash and GPP lineups.

Before I say anything about Davis, allow me to say that if you want to pair Josh Allen up with Stefon Diggs, you can absolutely do that. As much as I like L'Jarius Sneed in coverage, Diggs is an elite talent and the added loss of free safety Bryan Cook will make things difficult for the Chiefs to contain him. But I am also looking at cost and lineup builds and that, plus some favorable match-up numbers has me leaning more towards Davis this week, especially on DK. He saw 12 targets last week against the Eagles and this game has similar shootout vibes. The Chiefs rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR2 and Jaylen Watson has routinely struggled this season.  

Rice is going to be incredibly popular this week because we expect a shootout in Kansas City and outside of Travis Kelce, Rice has been the most reliable of the Chiefs receiving corps. He's running 53-percent of his snaps out of the slot which will match him up against Taron Johnson and while it's not a cakewalk, Rice should still see enough volume in softer match-ups on the field to allow him to produce at a strong level. What that level finishes off at, might not be much of an issue in cash games as our DFS Ownership Projections have him as one of the highest-owned receivers on both FD and DK. Having a free square at this price is always helpful for our builds. 

Well here you go, people. Here's your precious Noah Brown back on the field and ready to get back into your lineups. It only took a season-ending injury to Tank Dell to make it happen, but better late than never, right? We'll watch the weather in this one, but we all know the Jets are vulnerable to slot receivers with neither Sauce Gardner nor D.J. Reed moving in to cover the slot. Michael Carter II isn't the worst in the world, but he also doesn't have the speed to keep pace with Brown. If the Texans shorten up the passing game due to wind and weather, Brown could be in line for a heavy workload this week.

This could be our second free square for cash games, at least on DK this week, as our DFS Ownership Projections list London as the projected highest-owned wideout on the slate. I get it – Tampa is without Jamel Dean and they funnel everything to the middle of the field where they are routinely burnt like an old piece of toast – but again, performance really doesn't matter for our cash games if he's going to be highly-owned and sits with a cost under $5K. He had six grabs for 54 yards the last time these teams faced each other and he's had a relatively decent floor 

With the weather clearing up a little in Cleveland, we can look at the passing game again this week, but ONLY if it's Joe Flacco under center, if you can believe that. I'm not going to trust in either DTR or PJ Walker, but if it is Flacco, we saw how he focused in on Moore, especially with Amari Cooper still banged up with a concussion. The passing game shortens up and Flacco tosses those quick, high-percentage passes to help move the chains and Moore fits in perfectly if you need a pay-down. Last week, he saw 12 targets and while he only caught four passes, he posted 83 yards and now faces a Jaguars secondary that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game and 19 touchdowns through the air this season. If Flacco doesn't play, though….I'm out.

I have him listed for both cash and GPP, but he, like Mahomes, may be better suited for GPP tournaments where their price tag may not be as restrictive. But over his last three games against the Bills, he's averaged almost seven grabs for 87 yards per game and has two touchdowns over that span. Forget about the Taylor Swift stuff and understand that this is a VERY important game for the Chiefs who need to re-establish themselves as the premier AFC team. To do that, Mahomes and Kelce need to be at the top of their game and, given the track record in games like this, I am ready to invest.

Welcome back from your bye week, TJ.. Oh, how we've missed you. The match-up here is absolutely fantastic as the Raiders rank 28th in DVOA against the tight end and have allowed an average of 51.3 receiving yards per game to them. We know the team is committing to Dobbs starting this week again, which I like, and Justin Jefferson is coming back which will definitely draw defensive attention away from Hock, so if you're able to spend up at the TE position, this should be well-worth the cost.

There is some rising fear that the return of Dawson Knox will eat into the work for Kincaid, but after reading Coop's thoughts in the DFS TE Coach this week, I'm going to happily leave Kincaid here. I mean, the position is trash overall, so having any sort of elite pass-catching TE is a huge move and I believe Coop is 100-percent correct in his assessment of where the snaps for Knox will come. In a potential shootout, Josh Allen is not going to suddenly ignore a guy he's been feeding eight targets per game to over the last six games

I say it all the time, but will happily reiterate for those who might be joining us for the first time – he was on the cover of the Watch List for a reason! Now, we will have to keep tabs on the weather as there is rain and wind in the forecast, but even if that shortens up the passing game, Likely will be heavily targeted as he assumes the Mark Andrews role. The Rams have been horrendous against the tight end this year, ranking 29th in DVOA against the position and allowing an average of 61.5 receiving yards per game to them. They are also allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the tight end so that bodes even better for us.

If the Chargers are going to make a late-season push, they are going to have to increase the workload for Everett while they struggle to find healthy and competent receivers to surround Keen Allen, Everett is in a great spot as the Broncos still rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. With everyone looking at Hockenson, Likely and even Sam LaPorta, this could be the under-the-radar play we need this week.

I know. I know. This is a dirty, filthy play. So disgusting, it just might work, though. I do not tryst Arthur Smith and I don't trust Desmond Ridder. But Coop makes some valid points with regard to using Pitts this week and he is projected as the second-highest owned TE on DK and the fourth-highest on FD this week. If the masses are going to let us squeeze in this kind of a discounted player, we may just have to follow suit. After all, the Bucs are still allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and 30th in DVOA against slot receivers.

The Falcons continue to funnel everything to the middle of the field and that should significantly benefit Otton who sees 95-percent of the snaps and has been routinely targeted both inside and outside the red zone. With Chris Godwin still banged up and the other receivers still trying to prove themselves, we could see a nice lean here, especially when Atlanta is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end.

Again, let me start by saying you can use whatever defense fits your build bets. Whether it's price or just getting some correlation in your GPP lineups, just use who you want. We're all just chasing defensive touchdowns here and while some match-ups seem better than others, I'm not going to screw up my build because I need an extra $200 to fit in a different defense That being aid, it's Zach Wilson under center for the Jets in a game he didn't even really want to start. Nathaniel Hackett is a garbage offensive coordinator and while I believe the Jets can upset the Texans here, I still think Houston can rack of some solid defensive points for you.

Over the last four games, the Colts defense has six interceptions, three defensive fumble recoveries 21 sacks and three defensive touchdowns. Yes, it's been against Tennessee, Carolina, Tampa Bay and New England, but are the Bengals with Jake Browning that much better? You can choose to ignore the Ja'Marr Chase write-up from above, but I'm playing the friggin Colts D this week.

Lousy weather, sloppy game and a defense that has three interceptions, five fumble recoveries, 16 sacks and one defensive TD over the last four games? Yes please. And an even louder yes when you realize that Matthew Stafford has nine interceptions over his last 10 games. I'll happily use the Ravens and that has nothing to do with “my friend” using them in a Survivor pool this week.

They have routinely been one of the highest-scoring defenses in fantasy and are either facing a one-legged Trevor Lawrence, a one-armed C.J. Beathard or some dude named Nathan Rourke. Give me Myles Garrett all day long in this match-up

If you're looking for an intriguing pay-down, Dan Malin identified the Bears in this week's D/ST Coach. He makes very strong points about their run defense and the fact that Jared Goff on the road and in an outdoor environment is not exactly optimal for anyone but the Bears defense. Again, use whatever defense fits your build the best, but if just taking a flier, the Bears pique my curiosity.