NFL DFS Divisional Round Picks, Projections & Playbook For DraftKings & FanDuel

This is going to come down to game-flow interpretation, but considering the Ravens can lean on Derrick Henry against a Bills defense that has been vulnerable to the run all year, I like using Allen more this week. He didn't have a great game against the Ravens back in Week 4, but this is do-or-die and Allen has always been one to put the team on his shoulders when the chips are down. There's not a whole lot to go on with regard to stacking Bills as Allen has spread the ball out all season long, but if you believe the Bills fall behind at all, using him on his own and expecting him to throw more is perfectly acceptable. Keep an eye on the weather, also. We know it's going to be cold, but there is also a chance for snow.

We could be looking at a very similar game to the first meeting of the Bills and Ravens for Jackson. The Bills run defense is still a soft underbelly and once Derrick Henry gets going, there is less of a need for Jackson to take it all upon himself. Yes, it allows him to use his legs a little more, as evidenced by the 54 rushing yards and touchdown he posted in their Week 4 meeting, but it also opens up the passing game a little more for him. Part of the way Buffalo plays defense is to set themselves up to prevent the big play downfield. That's one of the reasons the run defense is soft, but it also opens up the short-passing for Jackson. He's got no problem finding his tight ends on routes under 10 yards and he can use almost as an extension of the Ravens' ground game.  

The obvious use of Daniels is that everyone expects the Lions to go run-heavy, build a substantial lead and force him into throwing all day. That may very well be the case, but we can also get excited about the fact that the Lions have also struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Not that they've lost to them, but that they've allowed at least 50 rushing yards to quarterbacks who rely on their legs – Josh Allen, Kyler Murray and Anthony Richardson. If Daniels follows suit and can find his pass-catchers downfield, this could be an explosive game for him, even in a losing effort.

So long as he's 100% healthy, I like using Hurts, almost in a contrarian way, as everyone and their grandmother will want to use Saquon Barkley who annihilated the Rams the last time he faced them. Hurts didn't need to do much in that game, but he did throw for almost 180 yards with one touchdown and he also rushed for close to 40 yards as well. The Rams still rank 25th in DVOA against the pass and they gave up the fifth-highest number of passing touchdowns. We know Hurts has the weapons, so if Los Angeles does try to sell out to stop the run, Hurts will have no issues taking it to the air. 

There's just no love for Mahomes anymore and that just makes me want to play him that much more. Andy Reid trusts him to run this offense and get things done and while we haven't seen “vintage” Mahomes this season, we cannot be unhappy with some of these results. He's thrown for at least two touchdowns in six of his last 10 games and he's posted a 300-yard effort twice in his last five. He's been wildly criticized for his short aDOT, but with Marquise Brown back in the fold, we're starting to see him take some extra shots downfield. The Texans stop the run better than they stop the pass and if they kep this game close, the ball will always remain in Mahomes' hands.

He'll be extremely popular after rushing for 255 yards and two touchdowns when he faced the Rams back in Week 12. There's not much else we can say about the guy. He's having a career year, it's a smash match-up for him and the Eagles offense leans heavily on his production. It's really just about fitting in his price tag and building your lineups around him.

Not much else to say here about Henry who rushed for 199 yards and a touchdowns when he faced the Bills back in Week 4. He also caught a touchdown pass in that game as well. The Bills are a bit of  run-funnel defense and they're going to struggle to contain Henry. Given the potential weather hazards, I expect the Ravens to lean heavily on their star running back. After all, it's why they added him in free agency, isn't it? 

So this is where it starts to get interesting when selecting running backs. David Montgomery returns this week, so the big question on everyone's minds is what will his workload look like and how will that affect Gibbs. If you look at the history of Sonic and Knuckles this season, you'll see that Gibbs had the slightly higher snap percentage and averaged just under 14 carries per game when both were in the lineup. I'm expecting that to happen again, as opposed to the 20-plus carries Gibbs was seeing while Monty was on the shelf. He'll remain the primary and will continue to be just as productive as he was all year. I prefer jamming in the cost of Barkley and Henry over him, but if I'm trying a different direction than the herd, he is near the top of the list because most will overestimate the impact of Montgomery.

Welcome back to the party, Monty! So glad to have you return and the price is definitely right for DFS play. He is officially off the injury report which tells me his 13-carries/game average is in-play. You can use him as a major salary-saver on his own, but I also really like using him in tandem with Gibbs in my lineups. Last season, I started doing this with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier and it worked beautifully as I cornered the market on Falcons rushing touchdowns. I'll be looking to do the same this week, especially on the 2-game Saturday-only slate.

Well, well, well…look who never went away when Isiah Pacheco returned to action. Everyone was dismissing Hunt when word broke that Pacheco would return and while there was one week when he was out-snapped, his touches never really diminished and he even out-snapped Pacheco after a few games. Hunt has tremendous versatility and he's more involved in the passing game. Expect a shared workload, but keep in mind that Hunt is the guy used most often inside the red zone.

With the Lions run defense being as strong as it is, with how unproductive Brian Robinson and with the expected game-script of the Commanders playing from behind in this one, Ekeler could find himself more heavily-involved with designed screens. I won't ignore the fact that BRob saw more targets and red zone touches in the last game, but considering how up-tempo this game might be, I think Ekeler fits the script better and has a much more manageable cost.

While this could be a tough game for C.J. Stroud as it will be outdoors in Kansas City and in the freezing cold, I expect him to lock onto Collins as much as he possibly can. He's elusive on both short and intermediate routes, he can be physical with the corners when he needs to be and his ability to pick up yards after the catch has been strong. The Chiefs will likely have Trent McDuffie shadowing him as much as possible and they might even float some double-coverage his way, so be careful. I still trust him, but he needs the Texans supporting cast to step up in order to draw coverage away. I could see him being quiet in the first half and downright explosive in the second.

You could go contrarian and hold out hope that the Rams have been playing possum with Cooper Kupp this whole time, but I'll lean into the chalk and stick with Nacua who has out-snapped, out-targeted and out-played Kupp every week since Week 12. Matthew Stafford has continued to lean on him each and every week and it would be a major upheaval if that didn't persist. He caught nine of his 13 targets for 117 yards the last time the Rams faced the Eagles and I expect a similar lean this week.

While I think I'd rather pay the extra couple of bucks for either Collins or Nacua, I cannot ignore St. Brown as the top receiver for Jared Goff. I do think the Lions will run the football a ton, but given the amount of blitzing Washington does, you have to figure the short passes are going to be in major effect. Washington's secondary has been soft for most of the season, though they did finally clamp down on the outside perimeter better, but the middle of the field remains exposed. I don't see a huge blow-up game from him, but will certainly have exposure, perhaps in lineups I fade Collins or Nacua.

Outside of that one weird game against the Falcons in Week 17, McLaurin has been one of the most consistent and prolific wide receivers in the league since Week 12. He caught five passes for 102 yards and a touchdown that week against Dallas and then went on to catch another seven touchdowns over the next six games, while averaging over 60 receiving yards per game over that span. Take out that outlie of one catch for five yards against Atlanta and his receiving yards average over the remaining five games was 71.4. We expect the Commanders to be playing from behind and the Lions secondary has not been without its struggles this year. McLaurin is a fantastic play.

He's the targets-leader for the Bills and he lines up all over the field, so we can expect the Ravens secondary to have some issues containing him. I obviously like him more on DK with the full-point PPR, but he is obviously playable on FD as well, especially when I expect the red zone targets to rise in this match-up. You can see by his usage in the red zone that Allen looks for him more when facing tougher run defenses, so rather than lean on James Cook when they get inside the 10-yard-line, I expect short passes to Shakir (and Dalton Kincaid) or Allen will just run it in himself. Baltimore's run defense inside the green zone is too good to just keep handing the ball to Cook.  

With the return of Hollywood Brown, we've seen a bit of a transformation for the Chiefs offense. Gone (not totally, but a lot) are the two-TE sets and we're seeing a lot more 11-personnel. That puts Worthy and Brown on the field with DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce and Worthy is being tasked with the shorter routes. Head coach Andy Reid said that, with Brown back, they are finally able to utilize Worthy in the way they originally intended. They are looking to capitalize on his speed and ability to run out in space, so thy are leaning on him with the short passes while Brown gets the deeper shots downfield. Given the strength of the Houston pass-rush, I could see a lot of designed screens to Worthy to get him running out in space more with blockers in front. 

He's going to be the No. 1 receiver in this offense again. Zay Flowers would need a full practice Friday and a full practice Saturday to convince me otherwise, so we can happily go back to Bateman this week. He got into the end zone pretty quickly last week and then basically sat back and watched as the Ravens took their foot off the gas and coasted the rest of the way. While I expect a heavy ground attack this week, you know this match-up with the Bills could get pretty feisty, even in poor weather conditions. Bateman should have no trouble paying off his salary and beyond, this week.

Just pop on up to the Worthy section to get the full run on what the Chiefs offense has looked like since Hollywood made his hallowed return. I expect him to continue down the path that he's on and considering he's been targeted on 44-percent of his snaps, he makes for a fantastic play this week, especially if the Texans pass-rush over-commits and leaves Brown in one-on-one coverage against Jeffrey Okudah and/or Kamari Lassiter. Derrick Stingley is going to be tough in coverage, but he's not shadowing anyone so expect Brown to find some solid opportunities.

Let everyone else simp over Dyami Brown. This is going to be a Zaccheaus week. If there is a glaring weakness in the Lions pass coverage, it's against the slot-receiver where Amik Robertson and Brian Branch have been splitting snaps. Both are better corners on the outside, so keeping pace with  a speedy slot receiver can be difficult. Zaccheaus has played primarily out of the lot over the past few weeks and should continue to do so in three-receiver sets. If you're stacking Commanders, then I prefer to use Zaccheaus alongside McLaurin, especially with ownership tilting towards Brown the way it is.

If you're looking to throw a dart in the two-game Saturday-only slate, I don't mind Metchie. Robert Woods is still a little banged up, Xavier Hutchinson doesn't play a heavy snap-share and you can bet the Chiefs are looking for ways to neutralize Nico Colins. SO where else is Stroud going to throw? Yes, the tight end, but we'll get to that in a bit. From a receiver standpoint, I'd look to Metchie who could be leaned on early if Stroud is having difficulty finding Collins. 

Another dart I feel good about throwing is Coleman against a potentially suspect Ravens secondary. Yes, they've shown improvement during the later half of the season, but Allen is going to have to take shots downfield to open things up and Coleman has been that guy for more than just a few weeks now. Most will turn to Mack Hollins because he's both barefoot and fun, but Coleman has out-targeted him 20-8 over the last three games. He caught four of his five targets for 51 yards in the first meeting with the Ravens and I could see some deep shots downfield to him if Buffalo needs to stretch the field.

While the Texans ranked fifth in DVOA against the tight end this season, you still have to give Kelce more than just a look. When push comes to shove, who is Mahomes going to lean on when he needs to get the job done? This obviously hasn't been a vintage Kelce season, but with the playoffs on the line and a chance to threepeat as Super Bowl champions, you can bet the core group is going to be a major factor. I expect him to be somewhat chalky as the masses will always flock to him, but that doesn't mean he doesn't perform. 

The way this season has gone, it's the tougher run defense that usually force the Ravens into using Isaiah Likely more than Andrews because of his blocking abilities. But I don't see that need here against the Bills. It wasn't as prevalent back in Week 4, as Andrews was still working his way back from injury, though we did see his snap count start to rise that week. He finished the regular season with a touchdown catch in six-straight games and should be a focal point of the passing attack for Lamar Jackson once again.

Though he was listed on the injury report late in the week, there is no need to worry. It was just an illness. He was back at full practice on Friday and should be good to go. It's a great match-up for Goedert who has seen six targets in each of the two games he's played since returning from injury and he's posted a total of eight catches for 102 yard and one touchdown in that span. The Rams have struggled all season against the tight end position, ranking 12th in DVOA but allowing an average of just over 61 receiving yards per game against the position and allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to them as well.

Maybe because he's been such a disappointment to those who drafted him in season-long leagues this year, but I see Kincaid as being overlooked by far too many people right now. It was a quiet close to the season, but Kincaid was averaging six-to-seven targets per game every week since Week 4 when he rang up five catches for 47 yards against these Ravens. Given the strength of this Ravens run defense I see a lot of short passes from Allen to help move the chains and that should keep Kincaid front-and-center alongside Shakir. Baltimore finished the season ranked 21st in DVOA against the tight end and allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position.

This should be a popular pick this week as the Chiefs have struggled against the tight end throughout the season. They ranked 11th in DVOA, but allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. With the expectation that the Chiefs have to spend some extra coverage on Nico Collins, that should open up some short-passing work to Schultz this week. If we're paying down at the position this week, this is the way.

It's no secret that CJ Stroud struggles on the road and Joe Mixon's ankle issue has him listed as questionable for the game. Unless the Texans defense gets out to a fast start against the Patrick Mahomes, the game-script should push Stroud into taking more shots downfield. The talent-level and inexperience of his receivers not named Collins will be prevalent and the Chiefs should find ways to force turnovers in their favor.

The Eagles defense ranked second in DVOA against both the run and the pass and sixth in takeaways this season. I expect them to dominate the Rams defensively and force Matthew Stafford into a variety of uncomfortable situations. Even facing a group like Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams, this is probably my favorite defense to use this week. 

If you really wan to pay down and you're not buying the Chiefs threepeat chances, then get yourselves the Texans defense. They were outstanding against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round, they ranked third in DVOA against both the run and the pass and they ranked fifth in takeaways this season. If you are fading the Chiefs or just looking for a cheap D, you should look to Houston and hope for some sacks and turnovers.