Chiefs vs Dolphins Predictions, Playbook & DFS Picks (Wild Card 2024)
The 2023 NFL playoffs are here and everyone is gearing up for a tremendous Wild Card Weekend with a six-game DFS slate to sink our teeth into. You can also choose to go with the Saturday-only slate as well, especially if you want to focus on players featured in the Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs game. This contest has everything you want in a game from the freezing temperatures the Kansas City weather report is expecting to Tyreek Hill’s revenge game to the coaching match-up between the legendary Andy Reid and the upstart Mike McDaniel. Both coaches have sound game plans, both teams are loaded with talent and this game, weather aside, could have some outstanding stacking ability for any and all DFS contests.
Chiefs vs. Dolphins Prediction: Dolphins Withstand Kansas City Weather for Upset
We never want to overrate the weather. There isn’t any precipitation in the Kansas City weather forecast, but they say it’s going to be cold – like sub-zero cold – and that could affect the passing game even if there is no major wind. For me, that puts the focus on the rushing attacks which means we can expect a lot of Isiah Pacheco and even more De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. Both teams are likely to open up with a strong rushing attack and since the Chiefs rank 27th in DVOA against the run, allow the 15th-most rushing yards per game and have coughed up 10 rushing touchdowns, I expect success on the ground for Miami. That will open things up more for the passing attack and I am sure that puts Tyreek front-and-center. Of course, to counter that, Patrick Mahomes is going to take it to the air more where he will focus on Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Unfortunately, the passing attack that has let Chiefs fans down all year, does it one more time an the Fins, courtesy of their ground game, give us the upset.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins Odds
- Spread: Chiefs -4
- Moneyline:
- Chiefs (-225)
- Dolphins (+180)
- Total: 44
- Weather: Temperatures expected to be around 10 degrees at kickoff and zero degrees by the end of the game; sustained winds between 10-15 mph
Chiefs vs Dolphins Injury Report:
- Rashee Rice, WR (hamstring – questionable)
- Kadarius Toney, WR (hip – questionable)
- Justyn Ross, WR (hamstring – questionable)
- Donovan Smith, LT (neck – questionable)
- Wanya Morris, LT (concussion – questionable)
- L’Jarius Sneed, CB (calf – questionable)
- Raheem Mostert, RB (knee – questionable)
- Jaylen Waddle, WR (ankle – questionable)
- Jerome Baker, LB (wrist – out)
- Xavien Howard, CB (foot – doubtful)
- Jalen Ramsey, CB (knee – questionable)
Best DFS Picks for Chiefs vs. Dolphins:
Patrick Mahomes, QB Kansas City Chiefs
You can never count out Mahomes and my game script puts the ball in his hands more than it does anyone else. The Dolphins rank 22nd in DVOA against the pass but they only allow the 18th-most passing yards per game this season. The DVOA ranking is low because of the 27 passing touchdowns they’ve allowed, so expect Mahomes to sling the rock and be a solid, yet likely under-owned, DFS option.
Tyreek Hill, WR Miami Dolphins
Once the running game is established for Miami, you can expect McDaniel to unleash Hill wherever possible. The Chiefs will likely try bracket coverage to stop him and there’s a chance we even see L’Jarius Sneed shadowing him. But Hill’s speed is just too much and he should find his way to some big catches with lots of yards after the catch too.
Travis Kelce, TE Kansas City Chiefs
Forget the haters. You want Kelce in your DFS lineups. When the game is on the line, Mahomes has eyes of one pass-catcher and only one pass-catcher. Despite a down season, Kelce still had over 1,000 yards and now he’s in a plus-match-up against a Dolphins team that ranked 30th in DVOA against the tight end and allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the position.
Rashee Rice, WR Kansas City Chiefs
How amazing has this rookie’s season been? He went from a limited snap-count early on to being the most-targeted receivers on this team. He has earned Mahomes’ trust and will continue to be leaned on, especially when you learn that Miami’s dealing with injuries to both Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard, the latter not even likely to play.
De’Von Achane, RB Miami Dolphins
Both he and Raheem Mostert are listed as questionable but both are expected to play. My lean is Achane as the guy with the freshest legs and not dealing with a knee injury. Yes, Mostert has been a revelation this season, but he wore down a bit at the end and Achane moved into the lead role to close out the season, I expect McDaniel to lean heavily on his rookie runner and I will lean in his direction if I have to choose one over the other for DFS contests.
Other DFS Picks for Wild Card Weekend:
Tua Tagovailoa, QB Miami Dolphins
I’m a fan of Tua’s and he hass great receiving targets, but I believe the ground game is going to be more integral to the Dolphins success in upsetting the Chiefs. They do not want to get into a shootout, so I don’t expect to see a heavy yardage count for Tua. He should throw for a touchdown or two still, but with the weather being the way it is and the expected game-plan for Miami, I don’t think the ceiling is all that high.
Raheem Mostert, RB Miami Dolphins
Anyone who knows me, listens to me on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio or has read my work, knows that I am a huge Mostert fan. But I think he serves in a complementary role more this week, especially if his knee is still barking. I can see him finding his way into the end zone, but I do not anticipate a heavy yardage total. Stable floor, but with Achane leading the way, the ceiling is more capped than usual.
Isiah Pacheco, RB Kansas City Chiefs
While the Dolphins rank 16th in DVOA against the run, they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game this season. The DVOA rank is low due to the 15 rushing touchdowns they’ve allowed. Dancing in the end zone may be the way Pacheco earns his money – maybe it’s in the passing game too – but I worry that Mahomes is going to feel the pressure and force the passing work more. That limits Pacheco in my opinion.
Justin Watson, WR Kansas City Chiefs
He’s considered the No. 2 receiver in this offense, though he doesn’t see an overabundance of targets. He’s like a 40-yards with a touchdown type of player, so while that’s great for the price, you cannot expect him to pop like some of the other DFS bargains out there. He’s a good way to differentiate in your lineup, but just understand the ceiling.
Jaylen Waddle, WR Miami Dolphins
If this guy were healthy, I would be much more inclined to using him as anything more than a contrarian plays. We know he’s capable of popping off and while the Chiefs focus on Tyreek, it opens things up for him, but with the back, the ankle, the foot, the head, the shoulders, the knees and the toes, I am concerned with how many snaps he takes and how many targets he sees.
Durham Smythe, TE Miami Dolphins
He’s got the mobility of a refrigerator, but Smythe does a good job of catching everything that comes his way. In fact, over the final four games, he saw 15 targets and walked away with 15 catches. No end zone work which is disappointing, but he’s got an 8-to-10-point floor right now and for the cost, that just might be enough to give you a boost.
DFS NFL Value Plays:
Kadarius Toney, WR Kansas City Chiefs
We’ll track his health and whether or not he can avoid lining up offsides, but Toney has the versatility Andy Reid and Matt Nagy like when they start with all their pre-snap motion and such. He’s a dart-throw still, but when he’s not in the coach’s doghouse, he gets the touches and targets.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR Kansas City Chiefs
Not sure how much work he gets or if Mahomes even looks his way after the dropped touchdowns we’ve witnessed from MVS this season. He’s a deep threat and a contrarian dart-throw, so if you believe, you can give it a try. All those years in Green Bay, maybe he thrives in the cold?
Cedrick Wilson, WR Miami Dolphins
This is a play I like if Jaylen Waddle is banged-up and limited. Not a huge ceiling, but Tua has given him a few red zone looks over the last few games, one of which went for a score in Week 17. If Waddle is limited, Wilson is in my lineup, but if Waddle plays, I might prefer a dart-throw at Braxton Berrios instead.
Braxton Berrios, WR Miami Dolphins
See above
More NFL Wild Card Game DFS Breakdowns:
- Cleveland Browns vs Houston Texans
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills
- Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys
- Los Angeles Rams vs Detroit Lions
- Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Player News
Sean Payton said that it is “too early” to project the running back depth chart.
Per ESPN’s Jeff Legwold, “Payton expects the depth chart to automatically reveal itself” during training camp, when all running backs on the roster are “going to get opportunities.” Reports immediately following J.K. Dobbins’ signing suggested the veteran back could snatch the starting role from rookie RJ Harvey. Legwold believes “Dobbins likely has the early advantage for the most snaps in the room because of his ability as a pass blocker and intelligence on third down,” but Payton’s comments indicate a true competition will take place next month.
Marquee Sports Network’s Scott Bair said Luther Burden “could make more of an impact than folks think during his rookie season.”
Bair was responding to a reader who asked whether the Bears are “in trouble” with Burden having missed so much of the offseason after landing on a football awkwardly. In short, Bair does not think so. Bair referred to Burden as “an X factor,” saying he “is still a dangerous weapon, one that can be impactful outside or in the slot.” While the slot role will provide Burden with opportunities to run routes against linebackers and safeties, mastering the perimeter role is key for fantasy purposes. He must be able to play in two-wide receiver sets in order for us to rely on him. Bair does note that “Johnson doesn’t reward those who don’t give effort during the week, so Burden must prove himself” as a consistent and hardworking practice participant.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports that Bengals rookies, EDGE Shemar Stewart and LB Demetrius Knight Jr., took issue with the protection language in the team’s training camp participation agreement.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, Pelissero explains that the Bengals’ training camp participation agreement “did not provide the same level of protection as [what] other teams give their rookies.” The protection language ensures “that you are taken care of financially,” if “something were to happen, injury or otherwise.” Knight, the Bengals’ second-round pick, and the front office agreed to a contract after Knight skipped the first training camp practice, which caused less of an issue than Stewart’s ongoing saga has. Aside from the participation agreement language, Stewart also takes issue with the Bengals’ recent change in contract language. The team opted to bring their rookie contract language in line with the rest of the league, after constructing contracts uniquely in prior seasons.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said, Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson is not asking to reset the EDGE market as he seeks a contract extension, although that request could change.
Browns DE Myles Garrett, Steelers EDGE T.J. Watt and Hendrickson entered the offseason seeking contract extensions from their current teams. Only Garrett, who signed a record-setting deal, averaging $40 million annually while netting him $88.8 million fully guaranteed, received one. The three players range from 29-to-30 years old. Per Pelissero, Hendrickson has “not been asking [to be paid more than] Myles Garrett,” however, “if T.J. Watt, and Micah Parsons for that matter, outshoot Myles Garrett, then suddenly, I think [Hendrickson has] to have a little bit of a recalibration.” The longer the Bengals delay paying the NFL’s two-time-defending sack leader, the more money they may ultimately have to pay him.
Speaking on the Rich Eisen Show, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said that contract length remains the lone issue preventing Micah Parsons and the Cowboys from agreeing to a contract extension.
Pelissero broke down the potential extension’s annual value, saying, Parsons “knows [exactly the] type of contract” that he is going to get because, “by Micah’s own words, he and Jerry Jones had, essentially, a handshake agreement on a deal months ago.” The issue is that Jones “is a believer in doing long-term deals,” lasting up to five or even six years. Pelissero stopped short of putting a number to Parsons’ desired contract length but noted that both Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb successfully negotiated four-year extensions with the Cowboys less than one year ago.
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy declined to call Russell Wilson the “leader of the pack,” saying Wilson and Jameis Winston “allow each other to lead in their own way.”
Tracy described Wilson simply as “Mr. Unlimited,” while referring to Winston as “the one that has the personality,” who "[connects] with everybody on the football team.” NFL’s Nick Shook acknowledges that “most expect Wilson to earn the job and trot out onto the field as the team’s starter in Week 1,” but Tracy’s commentary reflects an apparent lack of buy-in from Wilson’s teammates. Though it is reasonable to expect rookie Jaxson Dart to get the starting nod at some point this season, we may see Winston on the field before then.