NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 18 Saturday Featuring Jaylen Warren and More!
It seems like just yesterday that we were excited about the kickoff to the 2023 season, and now we find ourselves in the last week of the regular season. I guess it is true what they say; time does fly when you’re having fun. As part of the Week 18 schedule, as there are no Thursday night or Monday night games, we are lucky enough to get two games today between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens then the much-anticipated Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. It will be rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud’s first primetime game, and the playoff implications here are massive.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! We only went one of three on Sunday because of some wonkiness, but we’re looking to get back on track today. Here are my favorite Sleeper picks for today’s action.
Sleeper Fantasy Promo Code VAULT3 Gets New Users a 100% Deposit Match
New to Sleeper Picks? Right now new users who sign up will get a 100% deposit match up to $100 when they use code VAULT3. You must take advantage of this offer on your mobile device so you can download the Sleeper App and participate in their Picks contests.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
A date with the Baltimore Ravens would usually be daunting, but as they sewed up the top seed in the AFC last week with a win over Miami, they’re going to be sitting most, if not all, of their starters. Warren has had lots of success in the receiving game, even with a revolving door of quarterbacks, seeing higher than this number in nine out of the 16 games he’s played including the last four in a row. There’s also supposed to be some weather in Pittsburgh involving rain/snow and 25-35 MPH wind gusts, so any downfield passing will be limited, instead leading Mason Rudolph to check down to his running backs. With Baltimore’s starters out and a must-win game for Pittsburgh, I think Warren has a big impact in getting a win.
Pick: Jaylen Warren more than 21.5 receiving yards (1.80x)
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
It’s wild to think that C.J Stroud hasn’t yet been in a primetime game, especially with the hype he’s seen throughout the season, but here we are in his first night game in a must-win situation. Now, he’s only thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his 14 games, but with this being a win-and-in situation, I expect the passing volume to go up. The Texans are averaging 39 pass attempts per game as it is, and although the Colts passing defense has been okay, its deficiencies may be a little overlooked because of how bad they are in the run game. They’re averaging 1.3 passing touchdowns by the quarterback per game, but in this situation, I think Stroud provides a little extra juice to get him over the hump.
Pick: C.J. Stroud more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.72x)
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Sticking with the Texans, I’m looking at Dalton Schultz for my final selection. He’s one of the many players this week who have incentives riding on this game, and although his revolves around receptions, I’m leaning towards his yardage. Wide receiver Noah Brown has already been ruled out, leaving Schultz and Nico Collins as the top two weapons, and the Colts have been susceptible against the tight end position. They’ve allowed 8.2 targets and 56.6 yards per game, and although Schultz has been hit or miss at times this year, this is a prime position for him to produce. A must-win game AND incentives on the line? Sign me up!
Pick: Dalton Schultz more than 44.5 receiving yards (1.71x)
Use Sleeper Promo Code Vault3 For a 100% Deposit Match Up to $100
Whether you want to use our Sleeper NFL Picks above or build your own card for tonight, make sure you take advantage of the latest offer from Sleeper where new users who sign up from their mobile device and use promo code Vault3 can earn a 100% deposit match up to $100. Don't miss this offer from Fantasy Alarm!
Player News
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has “been spending more meeting time” with Jayden Daniels, to help learn “defensive tendencies” and develop “beyond the no-huddle” offense.
The Commanders huddled up on just 459 offensive snaps last season, the fewest in the NFL, though they promisingly averaged the fifth-most EPA per play (0.104) and EPA per dropback (0.204). NFL Network’s Cameron Wolfe adds that Daniels has been bulking up this offseason, “to handle the workload this year.” Daniels remains a high-end QB1 entering year two.
ESPN reports that “the Chiefs” have requested an extension to an end-of-June deadline for a stadium financing package from the state of Kansas.”
Per the report, the request indicates that the Chiefs’ “potential move across the state line from Missouri is a legitimate possibility.” Some initially thought that the Chiefs and Royals, who both play at the Truman Sports Complex on the east side of Kansas City, Missouri, would use the Kansas offer as leverage for a better deal from Missouri, but the two organizations appear to be seriously considering a move to Kansas. Both teams’ leases expire in January 2031. The Kansas Legislative Coordinating Council will consider the Chiefs’ request at a meeting on July 7th.
NBC Sports’ ProFootballTalk reports that “the NFL has shared on an annual basis salary data for every non-player position” up until this season.
Per multiple sources, NFL teams were sharing salary data “for every job in every NFL team,” from head coaching and general manager positions, on down to area scouts and assistant athletic trainers. PFT’s Mike Florio adds, “the official position is that the information is no longer being provided for legal reasons,” ostensibly because sharing such data could theoretically provide the employer with an advantage in negotiations. Florio does not believe the practice has ended, however, saying, “the unavailability of the spreadsheet doesn’t mean the practice of coordination/collusion has ended.”
PFT’s Mike Florio reports, System Arbitrator Christopher Droney concluded, “the NFL Management Council, with the blessing of the Commissioner, encouraged the 32 NFL Clubs to reduce guarantees in veterans’ contracts at the March 2022 annual owners’ meeting.”
Florio and Pablo Torre worked together to unearth Droney’s January 14, 2025 ruling, which “both the NFL and the NFL Players Association” refused to release. Florio reminds us that the owners’ meeting in question “happened only days after the Browns gave a five-year, fully-guaranteed, $230 million contract to quarterback Deshaun Watson” and only two years after the NFLPA tried, again, “to make all player contracts fully guaranteed” via the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Following Watson’s deal, “the league didn’t want to concede full guarantees on a piecemeal basis, with one team at a time giving players fully-guaranteed deals until they became the norm.” Ultimately, and perhaps surprisingly, Droney ruled that he did not find a “‘clear preponderance’ of the evidence” that NFL teams accepted and acted on said encouragement.
The NFL suspended free agent K Justin Tucker without pay for the first 10 weeks of the 2025 regular season for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
Tucker was released by the Ravens in early May, roughly three months after 16 massage therapists accused Tucker of sexual misconduct. The suspension is the culmination of a multi-month investigation conducted by the NFL. Per ESPN’s Jamison Hensley, Tucker may still sign with a team and “attend training camp and play in preseason games before the suspension starts Aug. 26.” He will be eligible for reinstatement on Tuesday, November 11th.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles told The Athletic’s Dan Pompei that the game has slowed down for Bucky Irving, who improved his pass protection and “cleaned up” his footwork this offseason.
Pompei’s touching profile on Irving’s relationship with Buccaneers offensive consultant Tom Moore details Irving’s diligent offseason habits and, critically, indicates Irving could play even better than he did in his 2024 rookie season. Buccaneers RB coach Skip Peete celebrated Irving’s “great vision,” elusiveness and ability to generate explosive gains. Irving finished as the PPR RB13 last season, despite officially starting just three games and playing a backup role on passing downs. Should his improved pass protection earn him a larger passing down snap share, he could compete for a mid-to-high RB1 finish.