NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 18 Saturday Featuring Jaylen Warren and More!
It seems like just yesterday that we were excited about the kickoff to the 2023 season, and now we find ourselves in the last week of the regular season. I guess it is true what they say; time does fly when you’re having fun. As part of the Week 18 schedule, as there are no Thursday night or Monday night games, we are lucky enough to get two games today between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens then the much-anticipated Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts. It will be rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud’s first primetime game, and the playoff implications here are massive.
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! We only went one of three on Sunday because of some wonkiness, but we’re looking to get back on track today. Here are my favorite Sleeper picks for today’s action.
Sleeper Fantasy Promo Code VAULT3 Gets New Users a 100% Deposit Match
New to Sleeper Picks? Right now new users who sign up will get a 100% deposit match up to $100 when they use code VAULT3. You must take advantage of this offer on your mobile device so you can download the Sleeper App and participate in their Picks contests.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
A date with the Baltimore Ravens would usually be daunting, but as they sewed up the top seed in the AFC last week with a win over Miami, they’re going to be sitting most, if not all, of their starters. Warren has had lots of success in the receiving game, even with a revolving door of quarterbacks, seeing higher than this number in nine out of the 16 games he’s played including the last four in a row. There’s also supposed to be some weather in Pittsburgh involving rain/snow and 25-35 MPH wind gusts, so any downfield passing will be limited, instead leading Mason Rudolph to check down to his running backs. With Baltimore’s starters out and a must-win game for Pittsburgh, I think Warren has a big impact in getting a win.
Pick: Jaylen Warren more than 21.5 receiving yards (1.80x)
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
It’s wild to think that C.J Stroud hasn’t yet been in a primetime game, especially with the hype he’s seen throughout the season, but here we are in his first night game in a must-win situation. Now, he’s only thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his 14 games, but with this being a win-and-in situation, I expect the passing volume to go up. The Texans are averaging 39 pass attempts per game as it is, and although the Colts passing defense has been okay, its deficiencies may be a little overlooked because of how bad they are in the run game. They’re averaging 1.3 passing touchdowns by the quarterback per game, but in this situation, I think Stroud provides a little extra juice to get him over the hump.
Pick: C.J. Stroud more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.72x)
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Sticking with the Texans, I’m looking at Dalton Schultz for my final selection. He’s one of the many players this week who have incentives riding on this game, and although his revolves around receptions, I’m leaning towards his yardage. Wide receiver Noah Brown has already been ruled out, leaving Schultz and Nico Collins as the top two weapons, and the Colts have been susceptible against the tight end position. They’ve allowed 8.2 targets and 56.6 yards per game, and although Schultz has been hit or miss at times this year, this is a prime position for him to produce. A must-win game AND incentives on the line? Sign me up!
Pick: Dalton Schultz more than 44.5 receiving yards (1.71x)
Use Sleeper Promo Code Vault3 For a 100% Deposit Match Up to $100
Whether you want to use our Sleeper NFL Picks above or build your own card for tonight, make sure you take advantage of the latest offer from Sleeper where new users who sign up from their mobile device and use promo code Vault3 can earn a 100% deposit match up to $100. Don't miss this offer from Fantasy Alarm!
Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.