NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 18 Sunday Featuring James Conner and More!
We got a great day of football yesterday with massive playoff implications on the line, but today is the main course. It’s the final chance for teams to punch their ticket to the postseason, and we have a full slate in both windows. Several teams will be resting their starters, like the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, and Los Angeles Rams, but others don’t have that luxury. Because so many players are sitting, there are limited options to choose from, but we can still have plenty of fun with what we’ve got!
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! Didn’t have a good day again yesterday, but we were close, with just a few yards keeping us out of the money. Let’s finish strong with the final week of the NFL regular season!
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James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
After picking apart the Philadelphia Eagles last week with 133 scrimmage yards, he gets another great matchup against the Seattle Seahawks that has allowed an average of 180.7 rushing yards over the past three weeks. Conner’s involvement in the offense with almost a 70% opportunity share is among the best in the league, and with the Cardinals looking to play spoiler and knock the Seahawks out of the playoffs, he should be heavily involved once again. He’s hit this mark in half of the 12 games he’s played this season and if Seattle continues to defend the run like they have recently, he’s in line for his seventh.
Pick: James Conner more than 71.5 rushing yards (1.76x)
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
This feels extreme and very weird to count a player as talented as Stefon Diggs out, but looking at the recent stats, I don’t think that he is in line to have a good game. He’s only hit this number in one game out of his last seven, and with Jalen Ramsey likely shadowing him this go around, I think Josh Allen looks elsewhere to move the ball. Yes, the first time these two teams met in Week 4, he had six receptions, but both teams are in a vastly different place now than they were then, and with Ramsey only allowing 1.2 yards of separation and only 53% of the low number of targets thrown his way to be caught, Diggs could be in for another quiet day.
Pick: Stefon Diggs less than 5.5 receptions (1.66x)
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
I don’t like to do this to myself as a Cowboys fan, but I’m doing it anyway. It feels like this pick is a lock, as Prescott has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one game since returning from the Week 7 bye. Aside from that, this matchup couldn’t be better, with the Washington Commanders allowing an average of 2.2 touchdown passes per game. If you don’t feel comfortable taking the touchdowns, his yardage looks good too, but I prefer the touchdowns in case the Cowboys get a big lead and he gets pulled early.
Pick: Dak Prescott more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.37x)
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Player News
Seahawks signed CB Shaquill Griffin, formerly of the Vikings.
It’s a homecoming for Griffin, who played four years in Seattle after being drafted in the third round in 2017. Griffin has sinced bounced around the league with stops in Jacksonville, Houston, Carolina, and most recently Minnesota. He appeared in all 17 games for the Vikings in 2023 and totaled six pass breakups with two interceptions. Griffin was a top flight corner in his first Seattle stint and earned a Pro Bowl nod for his efforts in 2019. While he’s more of a rotational corner at this point in his career, his return is a good fit for all parties.
Rams waived WR Quintez Cephus.
The former fifth-round pick is most famous for receiving an indefinite ban in 2023 due to betting on NFL contests. He was reinstated after a year and had brief stints on the Bills and Texans’ rosters during the offseason. LA signed him to their practice squad in 2024 but he never appeared in a game for the team. Cephus will be fighting for a roster spot this summer if he signs elsewhere.
ESPN’s Cameron Wolfe reports Browns QB Joe Flacco is the favorite to land the team’s starting job.
Wolfe added that Kenny Pickett “is gonna have the chance to steal that job from him” during training camp and in the preseason. Shedeur Sanders or Dillion Gabriel, Wolfe said, might get a look later in the 2025 season if it’s another lost season for the franchise. Flacco knows head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense well and was productive for the Browns during his five starts in 2023. Flacco posted the third best adjusted yards per attempt (7.2) of his NFL career during that 2023 stint in Cleveland, and made fantasy superstars out of David Njoku and Amari Cooper. Stefanski said the Browns offense has “a very high floor” with Flacco under center. If Flacco begins the season as starter, look for the Browns to be among the pass-heaviest offenses in the league. It’s a potentially excellent development for Njoku, Jerry Jeudy, and perhaps Cedric Tillman.
Dallas Goedert said Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo could get him the ball more often in 2025.
Goedert said Patullo has made tweaks to the run-heavy Philadelphia offense that could create more opportunity for the team’s pass catchers. “Throughout OTAs, I’ve really loved what he’s doing with the offense,” Goedert said when asked about Patullo, who took over the Eagles offense after Kellen Moore was hired as Saints head coach. “Little changes here and there and I’m really excited for the opportunity just to — with the connection I grew with him the last four years. What he sees in me in different ways that he’s going to get me the ball I’m really excited for.” Among the game’s best yards-after-catch tight ends, Goedert will enter 2025 as the Eagles’ clear No. 3 targets behind AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. In 2024, Goedert was targeted on 25 percent of his routes, the seventh highest rate among tight ends. Goedert’s fantasy prospects would get a boost with more looks near the end zone; last season he had just three targets inside the ten yard line and nine inside the 20.
The Athletic’s Mike DeFabo believes WR Roman Wilson should be a good “fit” for Aaron Rodgers.
DeFabo mentioned that Wilson during his collegiate career at Michigan “feasted on in-breaking routes over the middle of the field at Michigan, which should fit Rodgers’ skills.” Wilson will battle Calvin Austin for the team’s WR2 role behind DK Metcalf this season. Steelers wide receivers coach Zach Azzanni said recently that Austin will enter training camp as the clear-cut No. 2 wideout with “everyone else battling for a spot” in a receiver committee. Back in May, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler said Steelers coaches are “counting on” Wilson to make the jump in 2025 after injuries limited him to just five offensive snaps in 2024. Wilson, entering his age-24 season, had 789 yards and 12 touchdowns on 49 catches in his final season at Michigan. He was 19th among all college wideouts in yards per route run in 2023.
Kyler Murray said Marvin Harrison Jr. is more confident this season than he was in 2024.
Murray, per The Athletic, “has noticed a different comfort level with Harrison, a different confidence” in offseason workouts, along with a new physique after Harrison spent the winter bulking up. Murray and MHJ in 2024 had no chemistry whatsoever, especially on downfield shots, where Murray has struggled mightily for several seasons. Unless Harrison can manage to get more separation from defenders and see more intermediate and short targets from Murray, his fantasy prospects likely won’t change all that much in 2025, despite the larger biceps.