NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 18 Sunday Featuring James Conner and More!

We got a great day of football yesterday with massive playoff implications on the line, but today is the main course. It’s the final chance for teams to punch their ticket to the postseason, and we have a full slate in both windows. Several teams will be resting their starters, like the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, and Los Angeles Rams, but others don’t have that luxury. Because so many players are sitting, there are limited options to choose from, but we can still have plenty of fun with what we’ve got!
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! Didn’t have a good day again yesterday, but we were close, with just a few yards keeping us out of the money. Let’s finish strong with the final week of the NFL regular season!
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James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
After picking apart the Philadelphia Eagles last week with 133 scrimmage yards, he gets another great matchup against the Seattle Seahawks that has allowed an average of 180.7 rushing yards over the past three weeks. Conner’s involvement in the offense with almost a 70% opportunity share is among the best in the league, and with the Cardinals looking to play spoiler and knock the Seahawks out of the playoffs, he should be heavily involved once again. He’s hit this mark in half of the 12 games he’s played this season and if Seattle continues to defend the run like they have recently, he’s in line for his seventh.
Pick: James Conner more than 71.5 rushing yards (1.76x)
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
This feels extreme and very weird to count a player as talented as Stefon Diggs out, but looking at the recent stats, I don’t think that he is in line to have a good game. He’s only hit this number in one game out of his last seven, and with Jalen Ramsey likely shadowing him this go around, I think Josh Allen looks elsewhere to move the ball. Yes, the first time these two teams met in Week 4, he had six receptions, but both teams are in a vastly different place now than they were then, and with Ramsey only allowing 1.2 yards of separation and only 53% of the low number of targets thrown his way to be caught, Diggs could be in for another quiet day.
Pick: Stefon Diggs less than 5.5 receptions (1.66x)
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
I don’t like to do this to myself as a Cowboys fan, but I’m doing it anyway. It feels like this pick is a lock, as Prescott has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one game since returning from the Week 7 bye. Aside from that, this matchup couldn’t be better, with the Washington Commanders allowing an average of 2.2 touchdown passes per game. If you don’t feel comfortable taking the touchdowns, his yardage looks good too, but I prefer the touchdowns in case the Cowboys get a big lead and he gets pulled early.
Pick: Dak Prescott more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.37x)
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Player News
Broncos signed No. 20 overall pick CB Jahdae Barron to a four-year contract.
Barron is one of the last first-round picks to sign, getting a four-year, $18.07 million deal with a fifth-year option. He joins a secondary with star CB Patrick Surtain leading the group. His last season out of Texas, Barron won the Jim Thorpe award for best defensive back and now is slated for the Broncos’ slot role. This leaves the Bengals’ Shemar Stewart as the last first-round pick unsigned. The Broncos have just RB R.J. Harvey unsigned among their rookie class - he is one of the 30 second-rounders unsigned due to contract guarantee disputes.
Bills placed EDGE Landon Jackson on the PUP list.
Jackson will be able to be activated off the PUP list at any time during training camp, but apparently will not be ready as camp starts. If he remains on the PUP list through the 53-man roster deadline, he’ll be locked into missing a few weeks at the beginning of the season.
Falcons OC Zac Robinson said Michael Penix Jr. “opens up a different avenue within the offense.”
This is in the context of stretching the field a little more than the Falcons did in 2024, something they struggled to do at times with Kirk Cousins under center. The Athletic’s Josh Kendall also adds “The coaching staff won’t ask Penix to curtail his aggressiveness. In fact, it’s the trait they are most excited about.” A more balanced offensive approach could raise all ships in Atlanta — and it’s something that might be necessary for them as they try to stave off regression with almost no new players added to the room.
The Athletic’s Daniel Popper believes if Najee Harris misses time in training camp, the possibility of Omarion Hampton becoming the lead back is “even more likely.”
“Hampton has a chance to be an immediate difference-maker in the run game, a player with the explosiveness to score anytime he touches the ball. And he could be getting the bulk of the first-team work early in camp,” Popper continues. This is hardly an endorsement that Hampton is going to be RB1 in Los Angeles from Week 1, but Harris’ eye injury has at least complicated things early in training camp. There’s a non-zero chance that Hampton takes the baton and runs with it before Harris is ready to come back.
ESPN’s D.J. Bien-Aime reports C.J. Stroud worked on his speed to help him evade defenders in the pocket.
Stroud attributes his shoulder soreness from early OTAs and minicamps that kept him from throwing the ball to “extra work” with the Texans training staff this offseason, which is the main reason this is notable. “I’ve been working really hard on getting my body right -- losing body fat, trying to be faster, stronger,” Stroud told Bien-Aime. Stroud is an interesting QB2 this offseason, perhaps someone who could get back to QB1 status if everything clicks in Nick Caley’s new offense. The price makes him an ideal superflex investment at the moment.
The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue believes rookie second-round TE Terrance Ferguson is a potential breakout player in 2025.
“To be clear, Rams coach Sean McVay finally has to commit to a significant increase in 12 personnel for Ferguson, a rookie second-round pick, to truly emerge this season. But the offense has trended that way at times, especially last season,” Rodrigue adds. It would be surprising for Ferguson to emerge immediately, but perhaps the Rams are getting ready to zig their offense in a new direction in 2025. The rookie tight end is lightly-drafted and best-approached as a dynasty asset, but it should at least be on the radar that he produces sooner than expected.