NFL Sleeper Top Picks & Plays for Week 18 Sunday Featuring James Conner and More!
We got a great day of football yesterday with massive playoff implications on the line, but today is the main course. It’s the final chance for teams to punch their ticket to the postseason, and we have a full slate in both windows. Several teams will be resting their starters, like the San Francisco 49ers, Cleveland Browns, and Los Angeles Rams, but others don’t have that luxury. Because so many players are sitting, there are limited options to choose from, but we can still have plenty of fun with what we’ve got!
As you may know, we’ve joined forces with our friends at Sleeper to introduce their Sleeper Picks feature. With Sleeper Picks, you can choose from a variety of players and stat lines, choose whether that player will have more or less than the given stat, and combine your picks for a chance to increase your payout. If you build enough, you can even multiply your entry up to 100x! Didn’t have a good day again yesterday, but we were close, with just a few yards keeping us out of the money. Let’s finish strong with the final week of the NFL regular season!
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James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
After picking apart the Philadelphia Eagles last week with 133 scrimmage yards, he gets another great matchup against the Seattle Seahawks that has allowed an average of 180.7 rushing yards over the past three weeks. Conner’s involvement in the offense with almost a 70% opportunity share is among the best in the league, and with the Cardinals looking to play spoiler and knock the Seahawks out of the playoffs, he should be heavily involved once again. He’s hit this mark in half of the 12 games he’s played this season and if Seattle continues to defend the run like they have recently, he’s in line for his seventh.
Pick: James Conner more than 71.5 rushing yards (1.76x)
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
This feels extreme and very weird to count a player as talented as Stefon Diggs out, but looking at the recent stats, I don’t think that he is in line to have a good game. He’s only hit this number in one game out of his last seven, and with Jalen Ramsey likely shadowing him this go around, I think Josh Allen looks elsewhere to move the ball. Yes, the first time these two teams met in Week 4, he had six receptions, but both teams are in a vastly different place now than they were then, and with Ramsey only allowing 1.2 yards of separation and only 53% of the low number of targets thrown his way to be caught, Diggs could be in for another quiet day.
Pick: Stefon Diggs less than 5.5 receptions (1.66x)
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
I don’t like to do this to myself as a Cowboys fan, but I’m doing it anyway. It feels like this pick is a lock, as Prescott has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one game since returning from the Week 7 bye. Aside from that, this matchup couldn’t be better, with the Washington Commanders allowing an average of 2.2 touchdown passes per game. If you don’t feel comfortable taking the touchdowns, his yardage looks good too, but I prefer the touchdowns in case the Cowboys get a big lead and he gets pulled early.
Pick: Dak Prescott more than 1.5 passing touchdowns (1.37x)
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Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.