NFL Week 6 comes to a conclusion with an outstanding AFC East match-up between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills and another chance for us to build our bankroll with our NFL Best Bets for Monday Football.

 

 

 

Neither the Jets nor the Bills are coming in with any sort of positive momentum. The Jets just fired head coach Robert Saleh and stripped offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett of his play-calling duties while the Bills are all sorts of banged-up with Josh Allen being knocked out cold last week and questionable statuses for both James Cook and Khalil Shakir. 

How will this affect our NFL predictions? Maybe not as much as you think. There is a strong lean here already but before we look at our NFL picks, let’s look at some historical betting data for these two teams.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Monday Night Football, 10/14

You have to love diving into the against-the-spread data for a divisional rivalry, especially when you’re making NFL picks against the spread. Straight-up, the Bills lead this series 69-58 and are 3-2 over the last five and 7-3 over their last 10 meetings. 

But things even up a little more when the spread is involved as the Bills are 44-42-1 overall against the spread, 2-3 ATS over their last five and 5-5 ATS over their last 10. The break it down even further, over their last 10 meetings, the Bills are 2-3 against the spread on the road and just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.

This season, the 3-2 Bills are just 2-3 against the spread, 1-2 ATS on the road and this is actually the first time the Bills are favored on the road. Meanwhile, the 2-3 Jets are 2-3 against the spread, 1-1 ATS at home and this is also the first time the Jets have been an underdog at MetLife Stadium.

Overall, the head-to-head betting data favors the Jets. Let’s dive into some potential game-flow for our NFL predictions and then see where that takes us for our NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football.

 

 

 

Monday Night Football Prediction: Monday, October 14th  

While I am still favoring my original game-bet lean for my NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football, exploring the potential game-flow is a good way to dig up some nice player props from your NFL predictions. 

First and foremost, despite the coaching shake-up, the Jets go the way Aaron Rodgers goes. It doesn’t matter who the head coach is or which coach is calling plays, Rodgers calls his own game. And with the coaching change, we can probably expect Rodgers to fall back into his usual habits. 

That means he will, most likely, use the pass to set up the run so expect him to come out firing even though the Bills are allowing the eighth-most rushing yards per game this season. Breece Hall won’t be ignored, but after the firing of Robert Saleh, we know Rodgers is going to do things his way. Hopefully, he keeps Garrett Wilson as involved as he was last week, but you know Allen Lazard is going to get a strong target-share.

For the Bills, this is going to be interesting. The Jets rank seventh in DVOA against the pass and have one of the fiercest secondaries in the league. If Shakir is out, things are going to get even tougher for Allen as he looks to get Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid more involved, but the way you beat the Jets is on the ground right now. They rank 24th in DVOA against the run and are allowing almost 120 rushing yards per game. 

Of course, James Cook is listed as questionable with a toe issue. If he doesn’t play, we’ll see the tandem of Ty Johnson and Ray Davis take the reps, but even if he does play, you can probably expect a rotation of backs. The Bills’ best bet for success is to focus on the rushing attack and utilize the short-passing game to neutralize the Jets corners. We’ll see if they can get the job done.

Time to finalize our NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football.

 

 

 

Bills vs. Jets Best Bet: Monday, October 14th  

The historical head-to-head data above is more about the Jets and the Bills, but the real data we want to look at is how teams fare against the spread AFTER firing their head coach during the season. Since 2003, there have been 38 teams who have fired their head coach during the season. 

Those teams have gone 17-21 straight-up but 22-16 against the spread. The straight-up numbers (44.7-percent) may not look great at first, but considering those teams had a 37.4-percent win rate prior to the firing, there is a marked improvement. 

We can simplify it for you, if you like – The last 10 teams to have fired their coach mid-season have gone 5-5 straight-up, but 8-2 ATS. Given how Rodgers is going to be all fired up because he won the battle against Saleh, we’ll lean right into this recent data.

 

 

 

The under is 4-1 in Jets games this season and 3-2 in Bills games. The under is also 8-2 in their last 10 meetings, including the last five-straight. But this game opened at 47 and is now sitting at 41 which seems unreasonably low. 

Maybe Vegas is expecting both teams to load up on the ground and is taking into consideration all the Bills offensive injuries, but these teams really need to struggle for the under to hit here. We’ll go the other way.

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 10/14

**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.

 

 

 

How To Bet On Monday Night Football At BetMGM Sportsbook & Claim Your $1,500 Bonus With Promo Code ALARM

Now that you have your NFL picks and NFL predictions all set for the game, it’s time to invest in your (and our) knowledge. Are you ready to turn these picks into money? Well, before you take those NFL Best Bets for Monday Night Football and spin them into some cash you’ve got a great offer sitting right in front of you that you need to take advantage of right now. 

Jump into the action and put our NFL best bets for Monday Night Football to work for you. Just go to BetMGM Sportsbook and use this link to sign up with promo code ALARM and get a spectacular, featured bonus.

To claim, new users need to register, make a first-time deposit of $10 or more using BetMGM promo code ALARM, place your first wager and receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets if the bet loses! If the bet does lose, your bonus bets will be available once your initial wager is settled. 

Get in on the action now and start placing those NFL best bets for Monday Night Football before the game begins!