Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off with a heated NFC East rivalry as the New York Giants host the Dallas Cowboys and we’ve got a spectacular opportunity to cash in with our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

The Giants are coming off a big win against the Browns as rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers is showing everyone why he was such a hot commodity and first-round draft pick. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defensive struggles were exposed by the Ravens and though they tried waging a late comeback, they ultimately fell short.

 

 

 

Does this affect how we look at our NFL predictions for the game? How much does this affect our NFL picks against the spread? Continue reading for more on our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets For Thursday Night Football, 9/26

Teams from the same division playing against each other always offer up a ton of historical data. Dallas leads the overall series 75-47-2 straight-up and have won 13 of the last 14 meetings, including the last six-straight. 

We’ve seen some shifts in coaching and player personnel over the years, but the major names – both on the coaching front and key personnel have remained the same. The Cowboys are a -225-money line favorite which tells you where Vegas is leaning, but we need to look at more data to make our NFL picks against the spread.

Over their last 10 meetings, the Cowboys are 7-3 against the spread when facing the Giants overall, 6-3 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS on the road. They were favored by more than the current 4.5-point spread seven times and were 5-2 ATS in those contests. Bottom line – the Cowboys have had the Giants’ number for quite some time. Do last week’s results have an impact on the outcome here? 

We’ve seen some wild upsets through the first three weeks of the NFL season, so let’s look at some potential game flow for our NFL predictions and see how that affects our thought process when setting up our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football.

 

 

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Thursday, September 26h 

Three weeks into the season, teams are starting to show their true colors. We knew the Dallas Cowboys were going to struggle to run the football, but now we are learning that they are having just as much trouble defending against the run as they are at generating it. The Giants are likely to take a methodical approach and try to establish the ground game right from the onset. 

Devin Singletary isn’t some world-beating running back who opposing defenses fear, but he’s been both efficient and effective with a 4.7 yards-per-carry average and he ranks eighth overall with 3.0 yards after contact per attempt. If he can be this effective against Dallas, they’re going to be able to move the ball and open up the passing more.

With an established ground game, things should naturally open up for the passing attack. Malik Nabers will draw the most attention from the secondary and while there are some talented defensive backs like Trevon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis, Dallas still ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass. Does that number offer a proper evaluation, though? Dallas has allowed just 187 passing yards per game with four passing touchdowns allowed. 

They are also limiting opposing quarterbacks to an 87.3 rating. They were fine against Deshaun Watson, but not stopping the ground game allowed Derek Carr and Lamar Jackson to thrive against them. Daniel Jones may not be in the same class as Jackson, but he does like to run the ball himself and if they can get the RPO working properly against the Cowboys, there is more than just a fighting chance.

Offensively, the Cowboys are all about the pass and the Giants are going to have to be strong in defending it if they want to win. Dak Prescott has been throwing the ball more heavily in these past two weeks as the Cowboys fell behind in both games, but they cannot solely rely on that. The Giants have actually allowed 131.7 rushing yards per game, so getting Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott involved early should be a priority. 

Of course, don’t discount the possibility of just using the pass to set up the run and continue the aerial assault downfield with CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Jalen Tolbert and Jake Ferguson. The Giants have yet to face a passing attack like this and with the way Mike McCarthy is perpetually on the hot seat, don’t be surprised if he just has Dak come out gunslinging.

The last two matchups have been completely one-sided with the Cowboys blowing out the Giants. In looking at some of the changes New York has made, our NFL predictions have this one maybe being a little closer. 

Keep an eye on where the public money lands on this one before making your NFL picks. Typically, people bet Dallas heavily. They’re just one of those teams. Are we doing the same for our NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football? Keep reading and find out where our NFL picks against the spread land.

 

 

 

Cowboys vs. Giants Best Bet: Thursday, September 26th 

Both teams are 1-2 straight-up this season and both are 1-2 against the spread as well. The Giants are 0-1 as a home dog while the Cowboys are 1-0 as a road favorite. The interesting thing is that, with the Cowboys, there is an air of desperation and a clear sense of urgency to right the ship. 

The Giants seem content to steadily improve and there still seems to be that feeling that they are happy to grab a win but are still ready to move on from Daniel Jones. They feel like a rebuilding team while the Cowboys have a “win-it-all or we’re going to clean house in a major way” vibe around them. 

The spread indicates a close game, and underdogs are really turning out this season so far, but it feels like Dallas is ready to take this one. 

 

 

 

Vegas really has this one pegged with the 44-point game total. All three of the Cowboys games have gone over while all three of the Giants games have gone under. But while the Cowboys have helped contribute to the over in their games, the Giants have not been able to put up many points in theirs. 

Perhaps it’s because the Vikings and Browns defenses have been so strong? Dallas’s defense sure isn’t, but can the Giants pit up enough points to push this over 44? The over is 7-3 in the last 10 games between these two teams and we’re going to let the trend be our friend. Feels like a 26-20 kind of vibe to me. 

 

 

 

Best NFL Player Prop Bets & Other Picks For 9/26

**Please check back for more and/or different props as lines are still being posted as of writing this.

 

 

 

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With the start of NFL week 4, it’s time to get your NFL picks and NFL predictions in order and get ready to continue building that bankroll. You’ve got our NFL Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, so it’s time to take advantage of this spectacular offer and jump into the action. 

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Get in on the action now and start placing those NFL best bets for Thursday Night Football before the game begins!