2023 NFL Weekly Survivor Pool: Week 4 Top Picks & Plays
It’s Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season, and we now have a three-week sample size to help gather trends and patterns to make our Survivor pool picks for this week. In Week 3, we got a couple of upsets, most notably the Cowboys laying an egg against the Cardinals and the Texans upsetting the Jaguars. Maybe we’re not using the Cardinals too much here, as they’ve been pretty competitive so far this season. Except they play the 49ers in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.
We will help you get to the promised land one week at a time with our picks, but in case you’re not familiar with Survivor pools, here’s a quick rundown:
Pick a team that wins in each NFL week. Typically, you choose a team just once, so each selection is incredibly important. Some survivor pools have double-elimination so that you can slip up and still be in the running. Make sure you’re checking out our weekly matchup previews and our Survivor League Strategy in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide as guides toward picking the best winners for each week and developing a strategy. Let’s dive right in with Week 4’s picks!
2023 Survival Pool Picks Record
Week 3: 3-2 (.600)
Overall: 11-4 (.733)
NFL Week 4 DraftKings Odds, Implied Totals, Spreads, and Over/Under
*All lines current as of 3:00 ET, 9/28/23, courtesy of Vegas Insider*
NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks
San Francisco 49ers
If there’s one team not to be scared about, it might just be the 49ers, who had to have seen what the Cowboys did (or didn’t do) against the Cardinals and know that anything can happen in an NFC West matchup. San Francisco is the largest favorite in Week 4 and also holds the largest implied point total at 29, and Arizona holds the smallest implied point total at 15.
To say this would be a historic upset if the Cardinals could pull this off is an understatement. For context, no team has won back-to-back games as a double-digit underdog since the 1995 Indianapolis Colts.
Kansas City Chiefs
I mean, Taylor Swift is going to be at this game on Sunday Night against the Jets, so it’s hard NOT to play the Chiefs here. The Chiefs are 9.5-point favorites this week against the moribund Jets, who are free-falling with head coach hitching his wagon to the Zach Wilson trainwreck.n The Jets may have a robust defense, but they will need to score actual, real points in an NFL game and keep up with Patrick Mahomes — a Herculean effort.
If I have already used the 49ers, I’m using the Chiefs this week. “I’ve got a blank space, baby, and I’ll write your name.”
Minnesota Vikings
Now, to actual analysis. Yes. An 0-3 team I’m touting this week. They’re playing the Panthers in Carolina, but are slated to have Bryce Young back under center instead of Andy Dalton. The same Dalton who actually made their offense function in Week 3 in Seattle. Young has looked like a rookie so far, and not in a good way, with a less than 60% completion percentage, two interceptions and just 4.2 yards per attempt.
On the other hand, the Vikings have moved the ball proficiently and have a 25.5 implied point total on the road as a 0-3 team. Bettors clearly don’t think this team is a bad team; they’ve lost by six points or less in all three games. The Panthers haven’t stopped much on defense either, so this is one of those games where we have to sort out the law of averages and go with the better team regardless of what the standings say.
Other NFL Week 4 Survivor Pool Options
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers may have just lost Mike Williams for the season, but they certainly have enough offensive firepower to get through the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4 at home. The Raiders haven’t been able to stop anybody and have been unable to score much despite some gaudy stats from Davante Adams. Las Vegas allows the ninth-most points scored to opposing offenses, and they have scored the fourth-fewest points this season.
Add to that Jimmy Garoppolo in concussion protocol? The Chargers are currently 5.5-point favorites, but that total could balloon if Garoppolo doesn’t make it out of concussion protocol, and it’s either Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell under center. Yikes. I’m taking the Chargers here as a contrarian play.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are another solid play against the Commanders at home. It doesn’t seem contrarian on the surface; the Eagles are 8.5-point favorites against the Commanders. Per ESPN, the Eagles have an 80% win probability, and this is probably the juiciest matchup they’ll have all season outside of a matchup in New York vs. the Jets in Week 6. Add on an offense finding their footing with Sam Howell under center and also coming off of a game where he just threw four interceptions?! Sign me up here if you don’t want to use the 49ers or Chiefs.
Player News
Free agent Gabe Davis will visit the New York Giants.
Cut by the Jaguars after one season last week, Davis visited the 49ers on Monday. New York would be a reunion of sorts, as he played for Giants coach Brian Daboll in Buffalo. The G-Men already have several wideouts capable of stretching the field, but 26-year-old Davis could still be a decent role player in a strong offense. The problem, of course, is that the Giants profile as anything but, but rookie QB Jaxson Dart is comfortable throwing down the field.
Ravens S Ar’Darius Washington has been diagnosed with a torn achilles suffered during offseason training.
The fifth-year pro became a weekly starter for the first time last season, earning elite PFF marks in the process. He was a restricted free agent this spring but had yet to sign his $3.26 million tender. That’s a tough break, to put it mildly. Achilles timelines have shortened significantly in recent years, but Washington will probably still miss the entire 2025 campaign. The Ravens are protected in part by their first-round selection of fellow S Malaki Starks, but May is not the month you already want to be dipping into your depth. Going on 26, Washington’s career future is murky after he worked so hard to finally become a regular contributor last season.
Chiefs signed fourth-round WR Jalen Royals to a four-year contract.
Royals doesn’t have an obvious and open spot in the receiving corps to build short-term fantasy value with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, and Rashee Rice operating in the opening 11-personnel package. He may or may not play his way into WR4 duties depending on how the team feels about JuJu Smith-Schuster. Royals has plenty of talent and Brown is on a one-year deal, so there is a future where Royals is more than a bit player for the Chiefs. It likely won’t happen in his first season without injuries in front of him.
Matthew Judon said he “probably” won’t return to the Falcons in 2025.
The Falcons, of course, drafted both Jalon Walker and James Pearce in the first round. In an exclusive interview with CardPlayer.com — not to be confused with our PokerNews.com James Cook scoop a few days ago — Judon said that his sack total was down because “I dropped (into coverage) on 60 percent of the plays. It’s hard to get a pick and a sack on the same play.” Judon also told Kyle Odegard that “a couple” teams had expressed interest in him but he was in no rush to sign.
Jets released P Thomas Morstead.
Austin McNamara and Kai Kroeger will compete for the Jets punter job this year. The 39-year-old former Saint was the league’s oldest punter last season. If he wants to keep punting, he can absolutely join the tryout circuit or a competition elsewhere. But this is probably a sign that the Morstead’s 16-year career is close to an end at this point.
Lions offensive coordinator John Morton said it’s “going to be a breakout year” for Jameson Williams.
Morton said he’d never “been around someone that fast,” then quickly corrected himself to note that Jhamyr Gibbs is also that fast. Williams came on strong last year with a 58/1001/7 receiving line, but offensive coordinator praise could mean even more targets are coming. It would likely come at the expense of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s production if Williams were to truly break out, though there’s plenty for St. Brown to give and still be a top-flight fantasy wideout. It’s risky to read too much into statements like this in the offseason, but the new offensive coordinator telling you he thinks it’ll be a breakout year for Williams is certainly noteworthy.