Whether we are talking about fantasy football draft strategy, building winning DFS lineups or deciding which game bets or player props you want to make, you’ve heard me talk about “trusting the process” and not making any sweeping changes based on emotion or random occurrences. 

You benching Kyle Pitts in favor of some potential streamer like Cade Otten or Noah Fant because you’re pissed off goes against “the process.” Believing Dontayvion Wicks is a legitimate cash-game play because he had one, random breakout game goes against “the process.” 

 

 

 

Your process – the way you analyze and break down games for seasonal lineup decisions, DFS contests and betting – should remain a relative constant, especially if you’ve been winning. If you are losing, you need to identify where things are going wrong and oftentimes, it’s not your process. It’s life. Well, maybe it’s more about when life is affecting your process and the self-awareness needed to realize what is happening.

This might be a difficult thing for me to explain and discuss, but I will try to do my best. Maybe you caught my most-recent Weekly Bender on RTSports.com or heard my Jukebox Monday dedication of David Bowie’s Changes on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. 

I tried to discuss in both forums, though trying to equate it to fantasy football can be difficult when trying to remain entertaining and informative while speaking to the masses. What began as just personal frustration and what most would consider a “me problem” has gradually turned into a “you problem,” especially if you are someone who tails my betting picks or comes to me for advice. 

Self-awareness is not an easy thing for many people. We get lost in our own worlds and rarely take the time to see how we are affecting those around us. It’s not that you are self-absorbed, but it can be incredibly difficult to see the forest through the trees unless you take a step back and try to look at what you are doing from perspectives other than your own. 

But when you do…when that moment of realization comes, it should hit you like a ton of bricks and force you into making the appropriate changes and adjustments. For me, the moment of realization came on Sunday of NFL Week 6.

Those of you who have been following me throughout my career know what kind of a bettor I am. I prefer the contrarian viewpoint in many cases, and it has suited me well. Coming into this season, my NFL betting success rate was hovering around 58-percent which is considered very good over a 20-year career in this industry, but this season has been bad. 

Not fully disastrous where we are losing money hand over fist, but bad enough that I was getting frustrated and angry with myself, not just for losing, but dragging some of you down with me.

 

 

 

Then I re-read my write-up for the Week 6 Sunday Best Bets and it hit me like a ton of bricks. Lions over the Cowboys? Nailed it. Texans over the Patriots? Done. But then I read what I wrote about the Chargers/Broncos game, and I was dumbfounded by my words. I spent the first two paragraphs sticking to my process and told you exactly why I should be betting the Chargers, but then took a hard left to who the hell knows where and went against everything I have been doing over the years. 

The obvious result was a loss, and it left me wondering what the heck was I thinking? When I stopped everything and truly thought about it, I realized that the turmoil in my life was affecting my process, and that change was necessary.

Without getting into too much detail, though many of you already know this, my personal life was upended when my wife and I had to move by the end of August. That’s the life of a renter and I don’t begrudge that. But the timing of the move could not have been worse being that it was fantasy football draft season. 

Usually, I grind until Labor Day weekend, go see Phish for a few days and then come back re-energized and ready to go. This year, my time leading up to the season was filled with stress and anxiety, making it extremely difficult to focus.

In addition to that, as many of you have recognized, our content plan has changed here at Fantasy Alarm and my workload, assignments and schedule have all changed. My attention has been focused on more video work and the written content is now on a schedule that may help in the world of SEO (search engine optimization), but it is not helping me with my research or my results. 

So now, both my personal and professional lives have been upended and that has taken a substantial toll on my psyche. I have not been a happy person. I’ve been miserable, actually. And that has now spilled off into affecting you and for that I am truly sorry.

Recognizing all of this has not been easy, but now that the first step of self-realization has taken place, changes are coming. Implementing these changes won’t necessarily be easy, but I owe it to each and every one of you to make them and to do it quickly.

I appreciate those of you who took the time to reach out and not only ask the right questions, but to also offer encouragement and friendship. It is the true mark of #FAmily and one that makes me proud to be a part of it. Changes are coming. I promise you that. And we will all be better for them. 

Now let’s get to some of the Week 7 fantasy football questions.

 

 

 

NFL Week 7 Fantasy Football Advice: Start/Sit, Waivers & Trades

Richard D. Asks...

  • Is Chase Brown the new lead running back over Zack Moss in Cincinnati? Which one do I start this week?

Brown is not the new lead back in Cincinnati. Let’s start with that. Moss suffered a foot injury in Week 5, tried to play through it in Week 6, splitting snaps with Brown throughout the first half, and then found himself on the bench after an early third-quarter fumble. 

Was that maybe some frustration by Zac Taylor as the 1-4 Bengals were in a tight game with an inferior Giants team? Probably. But while Brown received all the touches from that point on, he was not effective and he also had a fumble of his own, though it eventually got pushed out of bounds.

We may see a close split between the two this week, but I am still giving the edge to Moss, so long as his foot is healthy, which it sounds like it is. The Browns rank 20th in DVOA against the run and are allowing an average of 137.3 rushing yards per game with eight rushing touchdowns allowed. The Bengals typically use the pass to set up the run and if they find themselves with a lead, it will likely be Moss who runs out the clock. 

Brown will still see some touches, but unless this is a competitive back-and-forth, Taylor is going to use the game plan that has proven successful for him in the past and that is to attack through the air, build a lead and then run out the clock. If you are playing in a full-point PPR league and think the Browns can keep this one close, then you can use Brown, but at full-health, I’m staying with Moss, not just for this week, but for the season as well.

Sam R. Is Wondering...

This is actually a great question, because our Weekly Rankings from Andrew Cooper have the two players right next to each other and our Weekly Projections don’t put them too far off either. In both cases, Smith has the edge, and I agree completely. I understand that a mobile quarterback like Richardson offers extra value in fantasy. 

Pretty sure it was Rich Hribar who referred to it as the Konami Cheat Code. But given Richardson’s style of play, injury history and struggles in the passing game, I have a hard time using him until I see more out of him. People can point out his air yards on a long touchdown pass all they want, I’ll take a proven pocket passer like Smith, especially when I know he’s throwing as often as he is.

Through the first six weeks of the season, Smith leads the league with 251 pass attempts (almost 42 passes per game) and is averaging 296.3 passing yards per game with three 300-yard efforts. He’s only thrown one touchdown pass each game, but we have expectations of more coming in future games. Like this match-up against the Falcons, for example. 

With a game total over/under sitting at 51, we are expecting a game with some serious shootout potential. Both teams are capable of running the football, but with Ryan Grubb and Zac Robinson calling plays, we are expecting the quarterbacks to be slinging the rock early and often. 

While the Falcons have allowed just 193 passing yards per game, they rank 21st in DVOA against the pass and have allowed five touchdowns through the air over the last two weeks. Seattle is on a three-game losing streak and needs to stop the bleeding ASAP. They will turn to the aerial attack in order to secure the victory.

For Richardson, it’s a favorable match-up against the Miami Dolphins, but I do not want to run the risk of a bad first game back or a potential re-aggravation of the oblique or shoulder or whatever ailment is of concern these days. Not to mention the fact that he still doesn’t know how to slide or protect himself. His time will come eventually…. we hope… but for now, give me Smith this week. 

 

 

 

Rachel G. Wants To Know...

What had the potential of being a very complicated answer is now relatively easy for me. Given the full-point PPR scoring format, my lean here is Robinson. We have a tough divisional battle against the Eagles and while Malik Nabers is returning from concussion, the Giants are going to need the short, high-percentage passing to help move the chains. 

Robinson has been that guy for Daniel Jones, averaging just under 10 targets per game. He’s actually seen double-digit targets in three of the six games and in two that he didn’t, he still saw at least eight. It also helps that the Eagles rank 22nd in DVOA against the slot receiver, so Nabers is going to help stretch the field, but Robinson is going to handle the underneath work and help move the chains.

For the record – I do like Goodson as a streaming option in deeper leagues. Jonathan Taylor is unlikely to play, and Trey Sermon is dealing with a knee injury. I just don’t like the potential of Richardson poaching goal-line runs. 

As for Chandler, it sounds like Aaron Jones might be back on a limited basis and if he’s not, Cam Akers was brought back to help shoulder the lode. And while we all love JSN, he’s still battling Tyler Lockett for targets even though he’s out-snapping him. Robinson definitely gets more consistent attention from Jones.

Fantasy Football Week 7 - NFL 2024

As we wrap things up and head into this weekend’s action, I just want to say thank you to the entire Fantasy Alarm #FAmily. If you took the time to read everything up above, I truly appreciate it. 

I don’t often share intimate details of my life with anyone but writing it all out here actually helps in the healing process. I will get better. Things will get better and by season’s end, all will be right with the universe. At least our universe. 

For anyone who has questions – fantasy, betting, or anything that’s on your mind, I encourage you to reach out. Thinking that you’re going through something alone is one of the most depressing thoughts a person can have. 

I have realized, thanks to many of you, that I am not alone, and I very much want you to know that as much as I have you here, you have me just the same. Reach out at any point, whether it’s through the Fantasy Alarm Discord (just be sure to tag me or send a private DM) or in an email me at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com. 

Much love to you all.