Best Fantasy Football Advice - Week 11: NFL Expert Howard Bender’s Mailbag
NFL Week 11 is here which means it’s time for a new edition of the Fantasy Football Mailbag. With only three or four weeks to go in the fantasy regular season, wins are crucial, and you can feel the anxiety that comes with making the right start/sit decisions. The playoffs are almost upon us. Are you in or are you out?
While every league is different, I am still seeing a lot of trade questions coming in which is great. It means that many of you still have an opportunity to adjust your roster in ways other than picking up the scraps off the fantasy football waiver wire. I’ll make sure I weave in some of the questions here, but for the general audience, here are some quick hits on what to do if your trade deadline has not yet passed.
If your team sits on the playoff bubble, your goal is to get into the big dance no matter what. You want to give yourself the best possible chance, but you don’t want to blow up your team. After all, you want to advance past the first round, so trading off your best assets in some blockbuster deal that won’t help you beyond this week is a mistake.
You need to target players like Kareem Hunt or Chuba Hubbard; guys who hold solid value for the immediate weeks, but we anticipate a drop-off due to other players coming back from injury. Until we actually see Isaiah Pacheco or Jonathan Brooks on the field and stealing carries, we have to march on with these guys who currently sit in a bell-cow role.
If you think you have a playoff spot locked down and are looking to improve seeding while currently riding a player like Hunt or Hubbard, you need to go to the bubble teams and see if you can help them out.
Maybe they’re sitting on someone like Mike Evans who may or may not be back for Week 12 or have a great buy-low opportunity like Tee Higgins who is expected to make his return from a quad injury according to #HillDontLie. Figure out what assets you may not need come the fantasy playoffs and start building up your roster elsewhere. Even a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 consolidation trade would be huge for your starting lineup.
And, of course, if you are out of it completely for this season then it’s either about next season or league integrity. If you are in a keeper or dynasty league, it’s all about acquiring better players for the future or draft picks. Depending on the status of your team, both or either would be helpful. If you’re in a regular redraft league, then you sit on your hands.
Someone in your league is going to approach you with a deal that may be fair on the surface, but if it’s not helping you to actually make the playoffs – and by that, I mean guarantee you a playoff spot – then you should be sitting tight. Teams that are 1-9, 2-8 or 3-7 are highly unlikely to make the big dance so don’t screw up the league with a dumb trade.
More trade talk below but also plenty to occur on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, so be sure to stay tuned over there every Monday through Friday from 6-8pm ET. Now, let’s get to some of the questions.
NFL Week 11 Fantasy Football Advice: Start/Sit, Waivers & Trades
William O. Asks...
- Would you trade away Tyreek Hill and Tyrone Tracy for George Pickens and De'Von Achane?
This is actually a perfect question to lead off here as Tyreek is one of those players I feel you can/should sell right now regardless of whether it’s a keeper league or re-draft. We are all very well-acquainted with the wrist issues and potential ligament damage. His practices have been limited, and he has been struggling through this for several weeks now.
The Dolphins may be in second place in the AFC East right now, but at 3-6, another loss or two could mean playoff elimination. They aren’t catching the Bills in the division and there are five teams currently ahead of them for a Wild Card spot, two of which have records of 7-3 and 6-3.
Should the Dolphins lose another game or two (Packers, Texans, 49ers and two against the Jets on the upcoming schedule), are we going to see Tyreek put himself at risk for further injury or does he pack it in for the season? Currently, he and Pickens could be a wash in value but in two or three weeks, we may not even see Hill on the field.
As for the running backs, given the fact that Achane is one of the most prolific running backs in fantasy with Tua Tagovailoa under center, I will happily take him over Tracy moving forward.
Make that deal!
Rick D. Is Wondering...
- Do I keep starting CeeDee Lamb or should I pivot to Cedric Tillman this week?
Lamb is another polarizing player right now, both in start/sit and trade questions. I feel like it’s very similar with him and Hill, though Lamb was just pulled off the NFL Injury Report and is expected to be a full-go this week. But where are we at with the Cowboys?
Now that Dak Prescot underwent season-ending surgery, the team is 3-6 and is getting buried in the NFC standings, you have to ask yourself how much longer before Lamb starts missing practices with another shoulder issue ro a hamstring or something like that?
I get it – they’re all professionals and no one quits on their team and all that but come on. We’ve seen numerous players quit on their teams and we’ve seen a number of guys get shut down. You think the Cowboys want to risk Cooper Rush throwing a hospital ball to the guy you just paid $136M? Like Hill, Lamb becomes a player I am looking to trade to a playoff-bubble team right now.
As for starting him or Tillman, it gets a little tricky. While we love what Tilman has done lately and we’re digging on this match-up against a depleted Saints secondary, this is still Lamb we are talking about. He is going to command a very heavy target share.
It’s been a rough ride, but 22 targets over the last two games is important, especially in full-point PPR scoring. Rush has definitely struggled, but with more reps, I expect the two of them to connect a little more often.
Tillman has also seen great target numbers lately, but we’ve also seen three different players lead the team in targets over the last three weeks. First it was David Njoku then it was Elijah Moore and this past week Tillman and Jerry Jeudy both led the way. The Browns are still figuring things out with Jameis Winston under center and if the Saints, which is typically a run-funnel defense, isolate him in any way, it could be a bit slow-going.
So, personally, I’m still using Lamb this week. If you are in a standard league or half-point PPR scoring format, I could be swayed to using Tillman and hope he catches a long touchdown, but I don’t want to ignore the more consistent targets coming Lamb’s way.
Tom T. Want To Know…
- Can I trust Anthony Richardson this week or should I stay with Geno Smith or Justin Herbert?
Sounds like someone is just as stubborn as I am with regard to Richardson. I have him in a number of leagues still and am faced with similar dilemmas all over. The short answer is no, you cannot trust him.
The upside is there for sure and his ability to add rushing yards and, potentially, a rushing touchdown raises his value in fantasy but after what we’ve witnessed this season, this is too crucial a time to put our eggs into his basket. I’m locking down Justin Herbert for this one.
As much as I love Geno and Ryan Grubb’s offense in Seattle, this match-up for Herbert against the Bengals’ 27th-ranked pass defense is too good to pass up. Cincinnati is allowing the 10th-most passing yards per game, they’ve allowed 17 passing touchdowns on the season and they’re allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.
Add to that the new rushing element Herbert has added to his game (at least 30 rushing yards in two of his last three games) and you’ve got a fantastic play this week.
Fantasy Football Week 11 - NFL 2024
All set with your answers? If your fantasy football question didn’t get answered here in the Mailbag this week, don’t worry.
Chances are, you’ve already heard from me via email or on social media. But please keep them coming. Many of us are diving into the start/sit questions regarding the same players, so maybe someone else gets their answer but you’ve got a very similar question.
And, as always, please reach out at any point, whether it’s through the Fantasy Alarm Discord (just be sure to tag me or send a private DM) or in an email me at rotobuzzguy@gmail.com.
Best of luck to you here in NFL Week 11 and let’s keep crushing it.