Another successful night for NBA Fantasy Alarm Best Bets with two out of three or ‘Meat Loaf’, and that ain’t bad. Rudy Gobert did make it a scare with twelve rebounds entering the fourth quarter, but he received extra rest and stayed under the high line of fourteen needed rebounds. One of the possible scenarios that were mentioned for the Timberwolves on back-to-back games. Tonight there are eight games, with two nationally televised games on NBATV. Only the Indiana Pacers are playing in the second of back-to-back games, and there are several props to consider. The bets will focus on the first nationally televised game of the Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks beginning at 7:00 PM ET. There is a nice plus odds prop in that match, and then a ‘safety bet’ with a unique combined proposition. There is also the return of a proposition bet that has failed the last two appearances, but should come in at the current line which has been moved up one. The Bet of the Night is at plus odds, and on an All-Star starter, Luka Doncic. 

 

NBA Bet of the Night

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks – To Record a Triple Double (+210 BetMGM)

Luka Doncic is an All-Star starter yet again, and the Dallas Mavericks are playing subpar to average. Luckily they are playing a subpar (at best) team in the Atlanta Hawks who could be without Trae Young and Clint Capela in addition to De’Andre Hunter, Wesley Matthews, and Mouhamed Gueye – who are declared out. The Mavericks will be without Dwight Powell but Maxi Kleber is listed as active and probable for tonight’s action. This helps this bet on two fronts, as Kleber is a better shooter but a worse rebounder than Powell. 

Luka will need to earn 10 or more rebounds and assists for one of the most difficult stats in sports to be achieved. Luckily the Atlanta Hawks allow the fifth-most assists to opposing point guards and are 15th in rebounds allowed to guards. They allow the eighth-most rebounds, 52.7, to opposing teams, and the third-most points with 122.7. The opportunity will be there for Doncic to have another triple-double due to the Hawks' bad frontcourt. The odds are over +200 and Luka is a special player. The stats indicate a favorable match-up against a terrible defense and this is one of the rare times a triple-double bet is suggested.

NBA Prop Bets

Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks – Over 19.5 Rebounds+Assists (-110 BetMGM)

It is always nice to have an insurance policy, for most negative occurrences in life are not a problem until they are a problem. This bet is exactly that, a safety net that could help recover a unit on the triple-double, should it not be successful. It is also a form of a double down, for if the triple-double is successfully achieved, then this bet would also likely hit. However, it allows ‘wiggle room’ if Luka Doncic were to have a stat line of 32 points, eight rebounds, and 13 assists – this bet would still be successful. Also if he has double-digit rebounds and close to 10 assists, such as 11 rebounds and nine assists, it would be successful. It has stand-alone value. 

With the Atlanta Hawks being such a poor defensive team, teammates such as Josh Green, Kyrie Irving (who is questionable), Dereck Lively II, Tim Hardaway Jr., Grant Williams, and others will have more opportunities to score. Doncic has a rebounding line of 9.5 on the three sportsbooks viewed this morning, and that is the same as Atlanta Hawks starting center Clint Capela. While Capela comes in with better odds of achieving it, Luka is the highest expected rebounder of his team. He has an average of 8.5, and the Hawks are not a great rebounding team. Doncic also plays several minutes, 36.9 per game, and that benefits both this bet and the odds of a triple-double happening. It seems that a combination of 20 rebounds and assists is an easy task tonight, so trust a second unit on Doncic.

Brook Lopez, Milwaukee Bucks – UNDER 6.5 Rebounds (-145 DK)

We will try this bet one more time, as Brook Lopez’s under rebounding line has been a successful betting angle over the past two years. His line has moved slightly from -140 to -145 and although he is playing the exact same team, on the exact same court as two days ago where he earned nine rebounds… the trust is still on the under. Despite Lopez grabbing 30 rebounds in his last three games, he should return to his average, and the sportsbooks feel the same way. There was a great deal of emotion with Doc Rivers' first game as the Milwaukee Bucks Head Coach two days ago. The Cleveland Cavaliers are still playing good basketball and they will look to limit Lopez's activity around the rim. Expect them to have a much more competitive game tonight. Even with Lopez having a great rebounding month, his average is still only 5.5, trusting the under tonight against a team that is tough against centers is still the smart bet. 

Thank you for reading and remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your fantasy and betting needs. Also check out the NBA DFS show with Jon and James as they have been on a roll lately.

 


Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy

*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise