NBA Best Bets & Player Props December 15: Joel Embiid Takes on the Detroit Pistons
Two out of three yesterday were successful bets, but a double unit bet on Jokic and the Nuggets to win did not happen. The trajectory and prediction model were accurate, but when accounting for uncountable variables the model for Nikola Jokic sitting out an entire fourth quarter was not up for thought. Twenty-six points in three quarters and so close, but close is worthless in betting… literally. Hopefully, you took Jonathan Kuminga’s over on the points as suggested, because it hit, but it won’t be recorded in the official tracking of bets for this best bets. This column remains just shy of thirteen units on the season.
Today is a new day and there are eight NBA games, with two nationally televised on ESPN. The bet of the night is a same-game parlay on the first match-up, the Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs. There is also a bet on Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers versus the Washington Wizards. The last prop bet is on the reigning MVP, Joel Embiid, and the Philadelphia 76ers playing against the worst team in the league, the Detroit Pistons.
NBA Best Bets & Betting Picks December 15th
NBA Bet of the Night
Same Game Parlay Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds & 3+ Blocks (+175 at BetMGM 2 Units)
This is not a typo, and it is the same player, Victor Wembanyama, on the same court in San Antonio, against the same team the Los Angeles Lakers, with the exact same line for both statistics. The only thing different is the odds, which surprisingly went up, (thank you, bookies). The logic behind the odds going up is that LeBron James is expected to play this game as the Los Angeles Lakers play the Spurs for the second time in three days.
Wembanyama had six blocks and thirteen rebounds two days ago against the Lakers, and he even fouled out. He has three or more blocks in five of his last six games. Expect the Lakers to rely on their height foolishly, and be blocked as predicted last time. He has twelve or more rebounds in four of last five games, and as previously mentioned he will have to control the defensive boards for the San Antonio Spurs to have a chance to win this game—two units on the rookie for a great payout.
NBA Prop Bets of the Night
Myles Turner OVER 9.5 Rebounds (+110 at BetMGM)
Myles Turner has been a consistent and improved player this year. Perhaps it is the advanced play of Tyrese Haliburton and their pick-and-roll game, perhaps it is Rick Carlisle’s coaching, it could be Turner understanding the game differently, or it could be a combination of all of those things. Tonight the Indiana Pacers play the Washington Wizards, and even if not at their best, they should beat the talent-deprived Wizards.
The Wizards are still allowing the most rebounds per game to opposing teams, 57.7 per game, and have been a punching bag for rebounding props this year. Turner only averages eight boards per game, and the bookies have accounted for it. Turner has ten rebounds in three games this month, and he should be able to dominate opposing center, Daniel Gafford. A positive unit prop bet and the statistics are on our side.
Joel Embiid OVER 34.5 POINTS (-110 at DraftKings)
There are a few obvious truths about the reigning MVP, Joel Embiid. He is one of the best scorers of his era, he takes off games against tough opponents, and he loves padding his stats against weaker opponents. Embiid was very vocal about how important the MVP was to him, and it reflects in his play. He has taken games off against teams with elite centers and or defenses. He sat versus the Minnesota Timberwolves and Rudy Gobert, he sat against the New Orleans Pelicans and Jonas Valanciunas, and he sat against the Boston Celtics and their elite defenders… the 76ers lost all of those games.
Embiid has played against the Washington Wizards (twice), the Atlanta Hawks, and the Detroit Pistons in his last four games and scored over thirty-four points in all of those games, including forty-one points against Detroit who he played two days ago. He is playing Detroit again, this time in Philadelphia, and the stat padding should be on full display.
The Pistons are the worst team in the league on a twenty-one-game losing streak. Detroit paid Monty Williams with (at the time) the highest paid salary to a coach, almost $80 million. He has rewarded them with one of the longest losing streaks in 77 seasons of the NBA. The longest losing streak belongs to the 2015 Philadelphia 76ers at 28. The Pistons’ Isaiah Stewart will not be able to stop Joel Embiid and although this point line is ridiculous, Embiid is averaging over forty points per game this month, and 33.8 per game on the season. Trust the scorer to do what he does best, pad the point total.
Remember to check out Fantasy Alarm for all your NBA fantasy needs. Basketball stats, rankings, DFS picks, tools to help your lineups, and the NBA DFS show with Jon and James.
Thank you for reading.
Bet Smart, Be Lucky - Iggy
*All Bets to be placed at 1 unit unless specified otherwise
Player News
Julius Randle recorded six points (2-of-11 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), five rebounds, five assists and one steal in Thursday’s loss to the Thunder.
After an excellent performance in Game 1 on Tuesday, Randle was poor on Thursday. While the rebounds and assists may provide solace, he could not find his groove offensively. Needing a spark, Timberwolves coach Chris Finch decided to go in a different direction, with Randle not playing at all during the fourth quarter. He’ll look to bounce back when the Timberwolves host Game 3 on Saturday night.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker tallied 17 points (5-of-8 FGs, 4-of-4 FTs), two rebounds, two assists and three three-pointers in Thursday’s loss to the Thunder.
With Naz Reid (10/8/0/1/2) and Donte DiVincenzo (8/3/3 with two three-pointers) both shooting 3-of-8 from the field, Alexander-Walker did most of the heavy lifting for the Timberwolves’ reserves in Game 2. The 17 points are the most he’s scored in a game since Game 2 of the second round, when he dropped 20 on the Warriors. Nights like Thursday have not been the norm for Alexander-Walker, so Minnesota will need more from Reid and DiVincenzo to win this series. With the action shifting to Minneapolis, the Timberwolves hope the belief that reserves play better at home rings true.
Jaden McDaniels accounted for 22 points (8-of-15 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), two rebounds, three blocks and four three-pointers in Thursday’s Game 2 loss to the Thunder.
McDaniels has taken on the unenviable task of defending Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and his emotions got the best of him late in Game 2. The Timberwolves forward was whistled for a flagrant foul after shoving SGA to the floor, but that does not tell the whole story of McDaniels’ night. After scoring seven points in the series opener, he more than tripled that number on Thursday, shooting over 50 percent from the field. McDaniels can undoubtedly be productive as a scorer, but expecting 20-plus points per night while also having to defend a player of Gilgeous-Alexander’s caliber is a lot to ask. Game 3 is on Saturday night in Minneapolis.
Anthony Edwards finished Thursday’s Game 2 loss to the Thunder with 32 points (12-of-26 FGs, 7-of-10 FTs), nine rebounds, six assists, one block and one three-pointer.
Edwards’ offensive production picked up after he scored 18 points in Game 1, but the perimeter shooting remains troublesome. Having shot 3-of-8 from three in Game 1, he was even worse on Thursday, making just one of his nine attempts. Edwards shot 11-of-17 from two and got 10 free throw attempts, boosting the final point total, and he did not commit a turnover. Given Oklahoma City’s depth and talent, Ant-Man will need his supporting cast to step up in Saturday’s Game 3 after many failed to do so on Thursday.
Chet Holmgren tallied 22 points (8-of-17 FGs, 5-of-6 FTs), four rebounds, two assists and one three-pointer in Thursday’s Game 2 win over the Timberwolves.
For the first time since Game 3 of Oklahoma City’s first-round series against the Grizzlies, Holmgren surpassed the 20-point mark. While the rebounds were limited and he did not record any defensive stats, the 7-foot-1 forward gave Oklahoma City excellent minutes on Thursday. Thus far, Holmgren has outplayed Minnesota forward Julius Randle, which is one reason Oklahoma City heads to Minnesota with a two-game-to-none lead. Game 3 is on Saturday night.
Jalen Williams accumulated 26 points (12-of-20 FGs, 0-of-1 FTs), 10 rebounds, five assists, one steal and two three-pointers in Thursday’s Game 2 win over the Timberwolves.
Having struggled for most of Oklahoma City’s second-round series against the Nuggets, Williams has played well through the first two games of the Western Conference Finals. After making history in Game 1 by becoming the youngest player to drop at least 15 points, five assists, five steals and no turnovers in a playoff game, J-Dub had a better night offensively and recorded a double-double. Oklahoma City hopes Williams can take this play on the road, as they visit Minnesota for Game 3 on Saturday.