NBA Best Bets Today, 4/27: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - NBA Playoffs
The Oklahoma City Thunder came from behind to beat the Memphis Grizzlies and advanced to the second round. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 38 points, ruining the best bet of under 31.5 points.
Nikola Jokic scored over thirty points, in fact he scored 36 in game three, which helped the Denver Nuggets defeat the Los Angeles Clippers. That series is now tied 2 - 2 and continues to impress as the best match of the first round. However Jamal Murray did not have a good game, and the +625 prediction fell just short.
Davion Mitchell of the Miami Heat came through once again, making both of his three-point attempts. It is the third consecutive successful wager on the exact same prop, and it has been at plus odds every time. Despite that Miami was absolutely embarrassed by the Cleveland Cavaliers.
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 4/27
There are four games with four NBA best bets today. The games begin at 1:00 PM ET and the action will keep going until right around midnight, as eight teams move into a pivotal game four match. Today’s best bets are brought to you in order of gametime.
Knicks vs Pistons Prediction: Karl-Anthony Towns 25+ Points (+120 on BetMGM) *BET OF THE NIGHT
Starting with a doozy, that is a teased up point proposition on Fantasy Alarm’s Best Bets main man, Karl-Anthony Towns. He is back after the Knicks made the adjustments to get him involved more, and it worked. The Knicks were able to regain control of the series with a 2 - 1 advantage, and if they are smart they will keep feeding him the ball.
Towns had a great performance in game three; 41 minutes, 31 points, 8 rebounds, 4 three point field goals, 2 blocks, and 1 steal. He averages 24.4 points per game this season, and has a point line set of 22.5 for the afternoon match at Little Caesars Arena. There is every reason to believe he can score 30 or more points again today.
The Pistons allow an average of 113.6 points per game this season and have allowed playoff totals of 118, 94, and 123. That implies that when they hold the Knicks below their season average, they win. And when they allow them to score over their average, they lose. Towns is going to be a problem for the Pistons as Tobias Harris is simply too small to constantly post up against him.
Isaiah Stewart’s health is a big factor, and without him the Knicks should look to feed Towns the ball, and let him work. The problem for Detroit is Towns can score from the three point line, the mid range, and near the rim. That is exactly what he is going to do too. Put a unit on this plus odds alternate point line at BetMGM, and for those new to the sportsbook, make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s $1,500 bonus bet offer.
Lakers vs Timberwolves Prediction: Anthony Edwards Over 5.5 Assists (+120 on Bet365)
The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Los Angeles Lakers at the Target Center, and this game is expected to be every bit as exciting as game three was. The Timberwolves currently hold a 2 - 1 lead over the Lakers, and have an opportunity to move to a commanding 3 - 1 lead in a series most experts expected them to lose. The spread is currently -3.5 points in favor of Minnesota, and they do have a great opportunity to cover it.
In the Fantasy Alarm Betting Bungalow, stats seem to jump off the screen in the late hours of the night. One of those stats lead to a discovery in this series. The more Anthony Edwards passes to his teammates, the greater the Timberwolves probability to win is.
Edwards recorded 9 assists in their game one victory, and 8 assists in the game three win. He had zero in the game two loss, and although there are other factors, the assists are telling. Luka Doncic was sick in game three, as an illness is making its way through several NBA locker rooms. It affected the team, and despite a 38 point performance from the 40 year old Lebron James the Timberwolves were too much for Los Angeles.
Edwards has played 35 or more minutes in all three matches of this series, and he will be on the court around 40 minutes again tonight. The Lakers are 19 - 22 on the road this season, and have lost eight consecutive playoff games. Look for Edwards to find his teammates on their favorite spots on the court. Put a unit on the second NBA best bet today at BET365 and for those new to the sportsbook, make sure to take advantage of the offer at the end of this article.
Best NBA Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 4/27
The first two NBA best bets were plus odd player props, the next NBA best bets today look at straight bet offers.
Celtics vs Magic Prediction: Orlando +7.0 (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Orlando Magic, displayed why they are not to be taken lightly with their game three win over the Boston Celtics. Game four at the Kia Center could yield the same results, as Orlando’s stingy defense continues to pester the Celtics. Orlando are underdogs by +7.0 points, and instead of risking a moneyline wager, a unit on their spread is recommended.
Orlando won 95 - 93 in an excellent defensive display from the best defensive team of the season. Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero combined for 61 of those 95 points, and continue to be the catalyst of Orlando’s offense. Look for more of the same but with more offensive contributions from Wendell Carter and Cory Joseph.
The Celtics are banged up, and although Jrue Holiday is the only player listed on the injury report Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Kristaps Porzingis are all playing through pain and/or injuries. Put a unit on the spread in favor of the Magic at DraftKings Sportsbooks. For new customers make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s offer below.
Pacers vs Bucks Prediction: Indiana 1st Quarter Moneyline (+120 on Bet365)
In three games this series, the Indiana Pacers have never gone into the second quarter with less points than the Milwaukee Bucks. In game one they were up 33 - 25, in game two they were ahead 40 - 30, and in game three they were tied 26 - 26. They start games fast to set the tone of the game, and Rick Carlisle has done this since his first stint with the Pacers (2003 - 2007).
Indiana let the second half slip away from them, and that is even more fuel for their fiery start to games. Tyrese Haliburton is one the best passers in the NBA, Pascal Siakam often attacks the interior of the defense early (in order to set up his mid range game later in the game), and Andrew Nembhard has proven a valuable scorer this series. Outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo the other Milwaukee players appear to need time to get in a game flow.
Carlisle is a championship coach and player that has always instilled the importance of winning after a playoff loss. Look for him to have his guys in an early rhythm tonight. Instead of taking the moneyline in the full game, take the Pacer moneyline for the first quarter. Good things come in threes, and this is third wager in this column that is at +120 odds.
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Player News
Aaron Gordon had a quiet night, finishing with 13 points (6-of-13 FGs, 0-of-1 FTs), five rebounds, three assists, one steal, and one three-pointer in the Nuggets’ loss to the Thunder on Tuesday.
Gordon was mostly held in check on the offensive end, finishing with his fewest three-point makes of the series, the second-lowest scoring output, and no production from the free throw line. While Gordon has made several big plays down the stretch of games this postseason, he was notably quiet in Game 5, making his line feel even less spectacular. He’s performed well in Denver’s two home games this series and will need to empty the tank on Thursday in Game 6 to help the Nuggets keep their season alive.
Jamal Murray scored 28 points (10-of-27 FGs, 5-of-5 FTs), four rebounds, three assists, one block and three three-pointers in 42 minutes for the Nuggets in their loss to the Thunder on Tuesday.
Murray registered his third 20-plus-point game of the series on Tuesday, but did so on rather inefficient shooting. A monster 13-point third quarter is where much of his production came from, which gave Denver a decent lead going into the final quarter. However, Murray cooled off down the stretch, scoring five of Denver’s 19 points in the fourth quarter. Both he and the rest of the Nuggets will want a better close to Thursday’s Game 6 if they hope to extend their season.
Nikola Jokic was dominant in the Nuggets’ loss to the Thunder on Tuesday, posting 44 points (17-of-25 FGs, 5-of-5 FTs), 15 rebounds, five assists, two steals, and 5 three-pointers.
Jokic bounced back in a big way on Tuesday after a few inefficient shooting performances in Games 2, 3 and 4. The three-time MVP had his fingerprints all over the game on the offensive side, regaining his shooting touch and being particularly dangerous from beyond the arc. He made some contributions as a passer, but still hasn’t found a way to dominate in this series as a facilitator, not yet tallying more than six assists in any game. Even with the Nuggets receiving the inevitable bounce-back game for Jokic, it wasn’t enough for them to take control of the series. Denver will need everything it can get from Jokic in Thursday’s Game 6 if it wants to extend the season.
Luguentz Dort came up big for the Thunder in their win over the Nuggets on Tuesday, finishing with 12 points (4-of-8 FGs), three rebounds, one assist and four three-pointers.
Well-known for his prowess on the defensive end, Dort’s offensive eruption in the fourth quarter helped the Thunder climb from out of a big hole to secure a come-from-behind win and move Oklahoma City one win closer to a trip to the conference finals. His three triples in the final frame were huge, but a late assist on a Jalen Williams three might have been the play that delivered the Thunder the victory. Dort’s double-digit outing marked his third of the series, and Oklahoma City would welcome another as it tries to close out the series on Thursday in Game 6.
Jalen Williams was impressive for the Thunder on Tuesday, posting 18 points (5-of-14 FGs, 6-8 FTs), nine rebounds, four assists, one steal and two three-pointers in the win over the Nuggets.
Williams landed in double figures in scoring for the fifth time in as many games this series. And while he continued to struggle with shooting efficiency, he remained impactful as a facilitator. The fourth-year wing also delivered one of the biggest shots of Game 5 as he sank a corner three-pointer late in the fourth quarter to give Oklahoma City a lead it wouldn’t surrender the rest of the way. Williams will continue to be relied upon when the Thunder head to Denver for a chance to close out the Nuggets in Game 6 on Thursday.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tallied 31 points (12-of-23 FGs, 6-of-6 FTs), six rebounds, seven assists, two steals, two blocks and one three-pointer in the Thunder’s win over the Nuggets on Tuesday.
Gilgeous-Alexander did it all for the Thunder on Tuesday, taking on the roles of scorer and facilitator while remaining active on the defensive end along the way. Most importantly, he was key in the final handful of blows that Oklahoma City dealt Denver down the stretch in what ended up being a dominant 34-19 fourth quarter for the Thunder. Gilgeous-Alexander, an MVP finalist, delivered his third 30-point game of the series and will have a chance on Thursday to produce his fourth as the Thunder try to eliminate the Nuggets.