MLB DFS Value Plays July 16: Top DraftKings and FanDuel Picks
Happy Sunday! The main slates on DraftKings and FanDuel begin at 1:35pm EST today, with the former having ten games, and the latter tosses in the game at Coors Field for an 11th game on the board. There are plenty of interesting matchups on the board, as well as some lucrative spots for value plays and top MLB DFS stacks alike. Whether you are needing some MLB DFS value plays for your cash games or GPP’s, we have you covered here at Fantasy Alarm. Henry Wilson is on the MLB DFS Playbook today, so if you haven’t checked that out yet, click the link, open it in a new tab, and get to cashing! To gain a bigger edge this afternoon, use our MLB projected ownership report and MLB DFS lineup generator to help create your FanDuel and DraftKings lineup(s). We have plenty of other tools to help lineup construction this evening, including our MLB DFS daily projections, weather center, and our lineups page to ensure your top plays of the day are in the starting nine. Here are my top MLB DFS value plays for your daily fantasy baseball lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday, July 16th.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
Kyle Bradish, SP, Baltimore Orioles (FanDuel: $9,000 / DraftKings: $8,200)
Bradish has been really, really, really good of late. Over his last four starts, covering 24 innings of work, he’s sporting a 1.88 ERA (3.12 FIP, 3.04 xFIP) with a 0.96 WHIP and 27:7 K/BB ratio. He’s ramped up the usage on his curveball and four-seamer in recent starts, while dropping the usage on his slider a bit more. Bradish’s curveball has been generating a ton of whiffs lately, which likely plays into his increased strikeout rate of late. Miami doesn’t exactly strikeout a ton, but Bradish’s recent success should lend itself to success in this matchup, as well as the fact that he’s pitching in the friendly confines of his home park (2.81 ERA, 0.98 WHIP).
Kolby Allard, SP, Atlanta Braves (FanDuel: $6,300 / DraftKings: $6,300)
It may be tougher to get down to Allard on FanDuel where you only need to roster one pitcher, but as your SP2 on DraftKings, there is some appeal with the Atlanta southpaw. In the month of July, the White Sox have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball against left-handed pitching, with other measly marks like a .147 ISO (18th), .300 wOBA (22nd), and 92 wRC+ (T-21st). Allard hasn’t thrown more than 73 pitches in a start this season, so the workload is a bit concerning, but across his two starts this year, he’s posted an 11:2 K/BB ratio across 9.2 innings. You could do far worse from a value SP2 than Allard against the White Sox today, who I’ll also mention was our streamer pick for the weekend on the Fantasy Alarm Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees (FanDuel: $3,600)
We don’t get this game on the main slate for DraftKings, but we do for FanDuel, so let’s continue to go with Stanton’s hot bat. Stanton homered again yesterday, giving him home runs in back-to-back games, and four home runs over his last four games, and while he’s usually better against southpaws, he’s been showing a bit of power against lefties. Here in July, Stanton has a .269 ISO against right-handed pitching, and gets to face Chase Anderson, a righty who has a 6.23 ERA and 1.78 HR/9 at home this year. Right-handed hitters have a .315/.369/.586 slash line against Anderson this year and Anderson’s last five outings have resulted in a 15.28 ERA, 4.58 HR/9, and 32.1% HR/FB. Also, for the BvP folks out there, Stanton is 6-for-14 with two home runs in his career against Anderson.
Evan Longoria, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $3,300)
Yusei Kikuchi has struggled against righties this year, which should behoove Longoria. The veteran infielder is slashing .269/.342/.567 against lefties this year, but the big numbers here are his .909 OPS and .299 ISO against southpaws. That’s elite! His price is a bit suppressed today, likely due to his recent skid, but he hits lefties well, and he hits them hard. There are more attractive higher-priced options at the position, but from a value perspective, there’s a lot to like with Longoria this afternoon.
Matt Chapman, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays (FanDuel: $3,000)
Chapman isn’t quite the value on DraftKings that he is on FanDuel, where his $3,000 price tag against Tommy Henry is very, very attractive. The Arizona southpaw has a 4.73 ERA on the road this year, and right-handed hitters have done the most damage against him this season. Chapman has a .367 average, 1.032 OPS, and .250 ISO against lefties this season, and he’s a cool 4-for-8 with two doubles, two runs scored, and one RBI through the first two games of this series.
TJ Friedl, OF, Cincinnati Reds (DraftKings: $4,200)
Friedl has hit righties at a .292 clip this season, and he has an .839 OPS at home this year. Oh, I should also probably mention his .207 ISO at home, too! He can also hit lefties, so if Milwaukee tries to use a lefty out of the pen later in the game, it won’t impact Friedl as much. Adrian Houser has a 2.25 ERA over his last four outings (2 GS), but that 5.66 FIP and 4.93 xFIP paint a much different picture. Friedl is a better value on DraftKings, but over on FanDuel, Jake Fraley presents a nice value, if wanting to get some exposure to this Cincinnati offense at Great American Ball Park.
CJ Abrams, SS, Washington Nationals (FanDuel: $2,700 / DraftKings: $2,900)
St. Louis right-hander Jack Flaherty hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last two starts, but he still allowed 13 hits during that stretch. For the year, lefties have posted a .305/.403/.421 slash line against him, and his 5.86 ERA at home this season isn’t a pretty sight. We all know that this Washington offense follows a “death by 1,000 cuts” philosophy, and Flaherty will allow some contact. I wrote about Abrams in this week’s streaks and trends article, and rightfully so, seeing as he’s slashing .385/.429/.564 in the month of July, and the team has moved him up to the leadoff spot the last handful of games. He has four multi-hit games out of the leadoff spot this year, and if we only look at his last five games as a leadoff hitter, check out this stat line: .476/.500/.619 with one home run, six runs scored, two RBI, and five stolen bases. Flaherty is going to get some ownership today, so I’m not opposed to using him as a pitcher. However, if you can’t bring yourself to do that, I like Abrams a good bit.
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Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.