2025 Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch: Risers, Fallers, Best & Worst Values & More
The 2025 fantasy baseball season is in full swing, and early trends are reshaping roster strategies. Power is down across the league, with home run rates dipping to 2.8% of plate appearances, the lowest since 2015, per FanGraphs. Meanwhile, stolen bases are surging, up 18% from last year, fueled by aggressive baserunning and rule changes.
Patience is always key as we are less than a full month into the regular season, but you always want to try to take advantage of some of the early-season swings you see in your fantasy baseball league standings. Below, we dive into three risers and three fallers, highlighting why these trends matter and how to navigate them.
Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Risers (Best Values)
Jonathan Aranda, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Aranda’s scorching start has made him a must-roster bat. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .375 with three homers, 10 RBIs, and eight runs, earning a regular spot in Tampa’s lineup.
His .400 BABIP won’t hold, but a career .290 BABIP and 12.5-percent barrel rate suggest sustained production, especially in a Rays offense that’s top-10 in runs scored. With power down league-wide, Aranda’s pop at first base is a big boost for shallow and deep leagues alike.
Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics (Triple-A)
This is the prospect to stash in all formats, if you can, as he is torching Triple-A with a .329/.383/.699 line and seven homers through 17 games. The Athletics are paving the way for his call-up by shifting Brent Rooker to left field, opening first base and DH for Kurtz to platoon with Tyler Soderstrom.
Sutter Health Park’s hitter-friendly dimensions could amplify Kurtz’s 68% hard-hit rate, making him a potential 30-homer force upon arrival. Stash him now before he’s gone.
Chris Bassitt, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
Bassitt’s quietly climbing rest-of-season rankings, sitting in the top-50 among starting pitchers. His 0.77 ERA over four starts, paired with a 11.96 K/9 and 1.07 WHIP, showcases his reliability.
While he usually lacks elite strikeout upside, Bassitt’s career 43.2-percent groundball rate and current 2.22 xFIP make him a safe bet in a season where pitching depth is thin. His consistency is gold for managers needing stability in roto and head-to-head formats.
Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch Fallers (Worst Values)
Matt Shaw, 3B, Chicago Cubs (Triple-A)
Shaw’s demotion to Triple-A Iowa after a miserable .172 start is a gut punch for fantasy managers. The Cubs have turned to Gage Workman at third base, and there’s no clear timeline for Shaw’s return.
His .289/.885 OPS with 23 homers in Double-A last year screams potential, but a 26.5-percent strikeout rate in his brief big-league stint raises concerns. With power down, Shaw’s value hinges on contact improvements. Hold in dynasty leagues but consider dropping in redraft.
Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox
Robert’s stock is sliding as trade rumors fizzle, and his production stagnates. He’s hitting .136 with one homer and six steals, a far cry from his 2023 38-HR, 20-SB campaign. The White Sox’s league-worst offense limits his run and RBI chances, and without an imminent trade to a contender, his ceiling is capped.
In a speed-up season, Robert’s 12% walk rate offers some OBP-league value, but his .235 OBP and 27.1-percent strikeout rate make him a risky play. Hold for sure. Maybe even a buy-low. But a tough start right now.
Tanner Bibee, SP, Cleveland Guardians
Bibee’s early struggles are alarming, with a 5.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over four starts. His 6.75 K/9 is well-below what he’s done in the past and a 5.31 xFIP and 38.3-percent hard-hit rate allowed signal trouble.
The league’s power dip hasn’t spared him, as opponents are barreling him up at an alarming 15.0% rate. Bibee’s 2023 (2.98 ERA) suggests a rebound is possible, but his current form makes him a bench candidate in shallow leagues until he regains command.
Navigating The MLB & Fantasy Baseball Trends
Patience is key with rookies and slumping stars, but 2025’s power-down, speed-up dynamic demands action. Prioritize players like Aranda and Kurtz, who can deliver scarce home runs, and lean into pitchers like Bassitt for stability.
Meanwhile, don’t cling to underperformers like Robert or Bibee without clear catalysts. Also monitor stolen-base specialists recently called-up like Caleb Durbin or Luke Keaschall to capitalize on the speed surge and stay active on the waiver wire to ride these trends to a championship.
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.