MLB DFS Playbook July 20: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
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Published: Jul 20, 2023
We have a seven-game MLB DFS main slate on Thursday, July 20th, on DraftKings and FanDuel. It's an interesting slate with elite pitching options from Spencer Strider, Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and George Kirby. There are some spots we can attack offensively too as the Detroit Tigers, New York Mets, and Minnesota Twins are in good spots. Be sure to check out all of our tools including the MLB Lineups page, MLB DFS Projections – powered by FanJections –, MLB DFS Ownership, and all of the rest of our tools HERE! Let's dive into today's playbook, core plays, and top stacks of the day!
MLB DFS Weather Center
No weather to necessarily worry about.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 8.5 Ks (-110)
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: 7.5 Ks (-140)
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 6.5 Ks (-120)
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins: 6.5 Ks (-105)
Best Odds for a Win
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (-190)
Jose Quintana, New York Mets (-155)
George Kirby, Seattle Mariners (-136)
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves (DraftKings - $12,600, FanDuel - $11,400)
Look, I know how good Arizona Diamondbacks' offense can be really, really good, but so can Strider. Even in a start he allows 5 ER last time out, he has 10 strikeouts. He’s hit double-digit K’s in three of his last four starts and has 28+ DKP in four of five. Nobody has the ceiling Strider has.
Blake Snell, San Diego Padres (DraftKings - $9,000, FanDuel - $10,600)
Snell should be a $10,000 pitcher but we’re getting him for $1,000 cheaper than that. He’s thrown three straight scoreless outings and has five over his last six outings. Over his last 10 outings, Snell has pitched to a 0.62 ERA, allowing just 4 ER across 58 IP while striking out 91 batters. This is the best he’s ever pitched and that’s saying something considering he has a Cy Young award. Snell faces a Blue Jays offense ranking 20th in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers (DraftKings - $8,500, FanDuel - $9,300)
Let’s be honest, there is no reason Burnes should be this cheap. At just 8.5K on DK despite coming off three quality starts in a row, 21+ DKP, and a 40-pointer his last time out. He’s been better on the road this year averaging 3.1 DKP more than he does at home. Philly’s offense has definitely woken up but they have a 23.1% K-rate against righties, so Burnes has the potential for another crooked number in the K department.
Michael Lorenzen, Detroit Tigers (DraftKings - $5,500, FanDuel - $8,300)
It doesn’t feel like Lorenzen should be at this price point, but here we are. He gets a fantastic match-up against the Royals who have been one of the worst offenses in the league against right-handed pitching. They’re 29th in OPS, 30th in wOBA, and have the fifth-highest K-rate to boot. Lorenzen has fired off back-to-back shutouts and has put up 21+ DKP in back-to-back outings.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
New York Mets - 5.21
San Francisco Giants - 5.16
Philadelphia Phillies - 4.91
San Diego Padres - 4.91
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox (DraftKings - $5,900, FanDuel - $4,000)
Robert Jr. has dominated against left-handed pitching from the start of the year until now. He has a .320 ISO and a .443 wOBA against LHP and faces Jose Quintana who’s making his season debut. Robert was great against southpaws last year too, posting a .152 ISO and a .393 wOBA. Two seasons of domination.
Riley Greene, Detroit Tigers (DraftKings - $4,600, FanDuel - $3,000)
Facing Zack Greinke on Thursday, Riley Greene is a fantastic option. All lefties are. Lefties this year have a .237 ISO, .403 wOBA, .331 AVG, and a .930 OPS. Greene has a .178 ISO and a .381 wOBA against southpaws on the year. He’s hitting .297 against righties as well. Since May 1st, Greene is hitting .358 with a .985 OPS, .195 ISO, and .424 wOBA.
Francisco Alvarez, New York Mets (DraftKings - $3,600, FanDuel - $2,900)
Righties have been crushing Michael Kopech and Alvarez has crushed right-handed pitching, so this is a perfect match-up. Alvarez leads the team with a .349 ISO and a .396 wOBA against righties. Michael Kopech has allowed a .232 ISO and a .352 wOBA against righties. Over his last 10 games, he’s flashed .417/.475/.917 with 6 HR and 13 RBI.
Wilmer Flores, San Francisco Giants (DraftKings - $3,100, FanDuel - $2,700)
Over his last 10 games, he’s slashing .459/.462/.811 with 4 2B and 3 HR as well and he hits left-handed pitching really well. Against left-handed pitching, Flores has a .187 ISO and a .375 wOBA this season. Over the last 30 days, Andrew Abbott has not been the same pitcher as he was when he burst onto the scene, especially against righties. He’s allowed 6 HR at home over his last three starts and righties have a .343 ISO and .367 wOBA against him over that span.
Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins (DraftKings - $2,200, FanDuel - $2,600)
There’s a lot of ownership gravitating towards George Kirby and I think Minnesota is pretty sneaky, especially their value plays. Kirilloff has homered in two straight games and three of his last four and over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .361 with a 1.122 OPS while driving in 13 runs. George Kirby has struggled against lefties this year allowing a .190 ISO, .320 wOBA, and a 41% flyball rate. Over the last 30 days, he has a .293 ISO and a .358 wOBA against southpaws.
Player Pool
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Stacks
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