MLB DFS Playbook August 18: Top Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Published: Aug 18, 2023
What opened as a 13-game slate is now a 12-game slate as the Guardians and Tigers game has been removed from the slate with the two teams playing a double-header today. It’s an interesting 12-game main slate on this Friday, August 18th, evening on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are top pitching options such as Spencer Strider, Brandon Woodruff, and Pablo Lopez and we’re dealing with Coors Field on the offensive side of the ball too. Be sure to check out all of our tools including the MLB Lineups page, MLB DFS Projections – powered by FanJections –, MLB DFS Ownership, and all of the rest of our tools HERE! Let's dive into today's playbook, core plays, and top stacks of the day!
MLB DFS Weather Center
Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies
There are rain storms in the forecast that could cause an issue. By an issue, I mean a delay, but nothing significant. There are winds blowing out from 10-15 MPH, as if Coors Field needed any help.
Recommended DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options for Strikeouts
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: 8.5 Ks (+110)
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 7.5 Ks (-140)
Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers: 6.5 Ks (-135)
Best Odds for a Win
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: -227
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants: -224
Michael Lorenzen, Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: -195
Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: -181
Favorite Starters to Use for DFS Lineups
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves
It’s not that Strider is unhittable, but man he can be dominant at times. He’s put up 26+ DKP in four of five starts and has topped 30 over that span. Since the All-Star break, the Giants are last in OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching and have nearly a 25% K-rate. I’d be the least bit surprised if he’s the highest scorer of the slate, but is it worth the price is the question you have to ask yourself.
Pablo Lopez, Minnesota Twins
This has been the best stretch of the year notching four straight quality starts and five straight in which he’s allowed 2 ER or less. He’s struck out at least 7 batters in six of his last seven starts. He’s put up 23+ DKP in four straight and flashed his ceiling right before the break notching 50.9 DKP. Pittsburgh’s offense has been better lately, but they’re still striking out nearly 27% of the time against righties since the break.
Brayan Bello, Boston Red Sox
If you look at some of Bello’s recent poor performances, he’s been quite unlucky with the batted ball data. He draws a great match-up against the Yankees who rank 29th in OPS and 26th in wOBA since the All-star break against right-handed pitching. Bello’s been fantastic against the Yankees this year posting a 1.93 ERA across 14 innings while averaging 22.2 DKP/game. I won’t exclude the 25.5% K-rate the Yankees have against RHP over that span. I don’t love the mid-tier but Bello sticks out here.
Seth Lugo, San Diego Padres
I think there are two 7K options that stand out and they’re Lugo and Andrew Heaney. Going back to Heaney is fine, especially when you factor in he was sick during his last start. Lugo looked sharp against Arizona just five days ago and built his way back to 87 pitches, which will only rise in this outing. AZ’s offense has struggled since the break and they rank 19th in OPS and 20th in wOBA vs. RHP. Lugo is one of the biggest favorites on the board today and is -160 to go UNDER 2.5 ER, has the fourth-best win odds at +135 on DK, and is a big favorite to go OVER 17.5 outs. Everything lines up for him here.
Recommended DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
Chicago White Sox: 6.4
Colorado Rockies: 5.61
St. Louis Cardinals: 5.2
Los Angeles Angels: 5.15
Favorite Hitters to Use for DFS Lineups
Luis Robert Jr., Chicago White Sox
He’s in the middle of one of those stretches. .355/.429/.742 slash with three homers and four stolen bags over his last 10 games. Now he gets to head to Coors Field to expand on his 32 HR and 66 RBI. He’s my favorite spend up of the slate.
Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros
When you look at Bryce Miller’s resume this year, there’s a LOT of good. There’s also FOUR realllllly bad outings and this is one of those spots that can go bad quickly when you have to face the likes of Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Lefties are who have given Miller issues of late. Over the last 30 days, he’s allowed a .323 ISO, .385 wOBA, a 60% FN rate a;pmg with 43.1% HH. Holy smokes. Since the break, Kyle Tucker is batting .322 with 11 HR, 36 RBI, and 9 SB across 31 games.
Ezequiel Tovar, Colorado Rockies
With how bad Michael Kopech has been, it’s only right to get in the Rockies hottest hitter here. I don’t think anyone pegs him as a player that should be priced around 5K, but he’s been worth it of late. Over his last 10 games alone, Tovar has slashed .350/.395/.650 with three home runs, seven extra-base hits total, and two stolen bases. RHH have given Kopech fits, as I mentioned, posting a .231 ISO and .357 wOBA.
Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
Houston, Jhony Brito has a problem and he stands 6’4” and plays 1B for the Boston Red Sox. Matt Olson and Austin Riley are the only two players who have hit more home runs than Casas since the All-Star break. He’s hitting .227 with a .726 SLG%, and .473 wOBA since the break, which is insanity. Lefties have given Brito fits this year as he’s allowed a .216 ISO and .349 wOBA, and a 47.7% FB rate. Yankee Stadium's short porch in RF is calling Casas’ name.
Jake Burger, Miami Marlins
If there was one team that I’m going to ride with tonight that is getting absolutely no love anywhere it’s the Miami Marlins. Jake Burger has been fantastic for this Marlins squad since being acquired and he has a good match-up here, an underrated one at that. Over his last 10 starts, Tony Gonsolin has pitched to a 6.28 ERA and that’s including his 6 IP, 1 ER cupcake match-up against the Rockies last time out. Over that span, righties have a 50.6% FB rate, 1.9 HR/9, and a nearly 38% HH rate. Burger on the year has a .262 ISO against righties along with a .337 wOBA. Burger’s going yard this evening!
Tyler O'Neill & Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals
I couldn’t decide which Cardinals player I wanted in the playbook so I just put both, eff it. They’ve both destroyed left-handed hurlers lately as Edman’s posted a .412 ISO and .491 wOBA while O’Neill sits at a .350 ISO and .480 wOBA. For the entire season, both guys have ISOs north of .225 and wOBAs north of .360. Both guys are fairly priced and Joey Lucchesi, making his first start off the IL, has been rocked by RHH to the tune of a .236 ISO and .372 wOBA.
Royce Lewis, Minnesota Twins
The Twins threw Lewis right back into the fire upon his return and he’s been fantastic in the two games since being back. He has four hits, has been on base six times, and has driven in two runs and stolen a base. He picked up right where he left off now hitting .405 over his last 10 games and .343 on the year. Righties have given Andre Jackson issues this year posting a .537 SLG% and .346 wOBA along with 2.77 HR/9. Lewis has a .384 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Come watch Jon Impemba & James Grande go LIVE on the Bettor Sports Network & Fantasy Alarm YouTube channels breaking down today's 12-game MLB DFS main slate at 5:00 pm ET! Give the video a thumbs up & subscribe to our YouTube channel!
Player Pool
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