MLB DFS Picks, Projections, Lineups & Stacks Today: Monday Playbook
Published: Sep 23, 2024
Welcome to Monday! We are officially in the final week of the season! We have another week of regular season DFS to capitalize on and build more winning MLB DFS lineups.
We have an AL central battle between the Tigers, Royals, and Twins, all fighting for the final two wild card spots, with the Mariners also holding onto a small amount of hope. The NL is mainly sorted out with the Braves trying to fight themselves back in and steal a wild card from either the Mets or the Diamondbacks.
It is a big travel day across the league, so we only have four games today, giving us a 4-game main slate starting at 6:40 PM ET on DraftKings and FanDuel.
With such a small slate, the choices are far more limited than usual, but this will give you some practice if you plan to play DFS in the playoffs. Building lineups on small slates can be challenging, so let’s dive into today’s playbook and all of my favorite MLB DFS picks for the day!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, September 23
With a 4-game slate, your options are limited, especially once you consider that you likely don’t want any offense against your pitchers. So, you are quickly narrowed down to six teams or less to build your offense around. I could see playing both of the top pitchers today, but I like E-Rod in this spot at his price, so I likely will be pairing one of the top pitchers with him.
On the offensive side, my favorite lineups to target today include the Arizona Diamondbacks, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays.
MLB Weather Today, 9/23
There is some rain throughout the day. I am not worried about it impacting the game, but keep an eye on it as we get closer to game time.
MLB DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator Today
This Playbook is your ultimate resource for crafting amazing MLB DFS picks. Dive into our expert advice and recommendations, and don’t forget to check out today’s MLB DFS projections, MLB DFS ownership projections and our special MLB lineups page!
You can easily mix all this info with the MLB DFS Lineup Generator, helping you lock in your Core Plays and create winning lineups quickly! Here’s a sample lineup for today’s games:
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Hunter Brown vs. Seattle Mariners
- Aaron Nola vs. Chicago Cubs
- Eduardo Rodriguez vs. San Francisco Giants
- Chris Bassitt vs. Boston Red Sox
Best Odds For A Win
- Aaron Nola vs. Chicago Cubs
- Hunter Brown vs. Seattle Mariners
- Eduardo Rodriguez vs. San Francisco Giants
- Tanner Houck vs. Toronto Blue Jays
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks
I love Eduardo Rodriguez at this price. He is coming off an 11-strikeout performance in Coors Field, but his price is lower than it was for that outing and the lowest it has been all season. This is way too much of a discount, and he should probably be locked in most lineups today.
The Giants against lefties over the last month have a league-leading 33.3% strikeout rate and are slashing .134/.194/.227 with a 20 wRC+, all last in the league. With E-Rod's strikeout upside and the Giants looking this terrible against lefties, this looks like a no-brainer for a bunch of strikeouts and a great chance at a win.
Hunter Brown, Houston Astros
Hunter Brown hasn’t been his best over his last two starts, giving up 5 earned runs to the Athletics and then pitching a quality start against the Padres but with only 3 strikeouts (though that is the norm with the Padres). Before that, he had 6 straight starts with 2 earned runs or less, throwing 37 innings with 35 strikeouts, a 1.22 ERA, and a 0.86 WHIP.
The Mariners give him a good matchup today. The offense has been performing much better over the last month, but they still have a 25% strikeout rate against righties, and I think Hunter Brown is good enough to shut them down.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
We’ve had a few good and a few bad from Aaron Nola recently. He got beat up a bit by the Marlins (ouch) and the Mets, but then had two great starts with 9 strikeouts against the Brewers and Braves, both good offenses.
The Cubs also have a pretty good offense and will not roll over easily, which gives Hunter Brown the edge today. However, I still think Aaron Nola's upside is higher than most other pitchers' today, and I trust him to give a solid outing.
MLB DFS Lineup Picks: Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Hayden Birdsong
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Hayden Wesneski
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tanner Houck
- Houston Astros vs. Bryce Miller
MLB DFS Lineups: Core MLB DFS Hitters
Triston Casas, 1B Boston Red Sox
I'm not turning away from the usual move of attacking Chris Bassitt with lefties. Lefties are still slashing .300/.382/.474 against him this season with a 1.56 HR/9. Triston Casas has legit power, as we just saw yesterday with a 3-homer game in game one of the double-header.
Triston Casas, if healthy, can be one of the better power-hitting first basemen in the league and started the season as a $5,000 player. Seeing the performance we did yesterday, I am very happy to jump back in and take this discount right now with such a good matchup.
Ketel Marte, 2B Arizona Diamondbacks
Sure, he isn’t facing a lefty, but I don’t care. The Diamondbacks are my favorite offense to target today, and Ketel Marte is their best hitter. He has also been excellent against righties, just not as insanely dominant as he has been against lefties.
Hayden Birdsong has struggled even worse against righties, so part of me wants Marte not to switch-hit in this matchup and bat as a righty, where he has been better and where Birdsong has struggled more (I know this probably wouldn’t benefit him, but one can dream). Regardless, I love Marte and am happily paying for him today, no matter the matchup.
Trevor Story, SS Boston Red Sox
This one isn’t a lefty against Bassitt, but almost all of Story’s success in his short season has come against righties. The shortstop position feels pretty weak today as well, and the discount you get on Story for someone who can easily produce solid value feels really good.
In his last 8 games he has slashed .357/.419/.607 with 2 homers and 3 steals. That is some great production that, hopefully, he can keep up through the last week of the season to give the Red Sox some hope for what 2025 could bring.
Lourdes Gurriel, OF Arizona Diamondbacks
Lourdes Gurriel has made a quick return from the IL with 3 hits and a homer in his first 2 games back. In his 20 games before landing on the IL he had slashed .338/.432/.544, and I am expecting that type of production to continue now that he has returned.
You could build an entire outfield of Diamondbacks with a combination of Lourdes Gurriel, Corbin Carroll, Joc Pederson, Jake McCarthy, Randal Grichuk, and Pavin Smith, and I would be happy to use any of them. Still, Lourdes Gurriel is my favorite of the group to include in any Diamondbacks stack I put together today.
Player Pool
| $ Tier | SP | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High |  Hunter Brown  $9,000 |  Adrian Del Castillo $4,400 |  Bryce Harper $5,400 | Ketel Marte $6,000 |  Vladimir Guerrero $5,200 | Trea Turner $5,700 |  Kyle Tucker $5,800 |
| J.T. Realmuto $4,200 | Jose Altuve $5,000 | Corbin Carroll $5,300 | |||||
 Cody Bellinger $5,000 | |||||||
| Medium | Aaron Nola $8,600 | Alejandro Kirk $3,300 | Christian Walker $4,900 | Bryson Stott $4,300 | Eugenio Suárez $4,700 | Dansby Swanson $4,500 | Seiya Suzuki $4,900 |
| Michael Busch $4,000 | Alec Bohm $4,400 | Jeremy Peña $4,200 |  Joc Pederson $4,600 | ||||
| Lourdes Gurriel $4,200 | |||||||
| Jake McCarthy $4,000 | |||||||
| Low | Eduardo Rodriguez $6,500 | Victor Caratini $2,800 |  Triston Casas $3,900 | Davis Schneider $3,400 | Ernie Clement $3,700 | Trevor Story $3,400 | Randal Grichuk $3,800 |
| Jon Singleton $3,000 |  Casey Schmitt $2,300 | Pavin Smith $3,600 | |||||
| Masataka Yoshida $3,500 | |||||||
 Jason Heyward $3,000 |
Stacks
| Diamondbacks | Ketel Marte | Lourdes Gurriel | Joc Pederson | Corbin Carroll | Christian Walker |
| DraftKings | 6000 | 4200 | 4600 | 5300 | 4900 |
 Fanduel | 4300 | 3000 | 3300 | 3900 | 3400 |
| Phillies | Trea Turner | Alec Bohm | Bryson Stott | Kyle Schwarber | Bryce Harper |
| DraftKings | 5700 | 4400 | 4300 | 5900 | 5400 |
| Fanduel | 3800 | 3300 | 2900 | 4000 | 3700 |
| Red Sox | Triston Casas | Masataka Yoshida | Wilyer Abreu | Connor Wong | Trevor Story |
| DraftKings | 3900 | 3500 | 3600 | 3700 | 3400 |
| Fanduel | 2700 | 3000 | 3000 | 2800 | 2900 |
| Blue Jays | Spencer Horwitz | Alejandro Kirk | George Springer | Ernie Clement | Vladimir Guerrero |
| DraftKings | 3800 | 3300 | 4300 | 3700 | 5200 |
| Fanduel | 2800 | 2400 | 3000 | 2600 | 3900 |
| Astros | Jose Altuve | Alex Bregman | Jeremy Peña | Yainer Diaz | Kyle Tucker |
| DraftKings | 5000 | 4800 | 4200 | 4600 | 5800 |
| Fanduel | 3400 | 3300 | 3000 | 3100 | 4200 |
Player News
Luis Matos went 2-for-4 with a three-run homer in leading the Giants to a 4-2 win over the Marlins on Sunday.
Even though it came in the fourth inning, the blast off Ryan Weathers is definitely Matos’s biggest hit of the season. He came into the day 1-for-30 with runners on base, and though that one hit was a two-run homer, it came in a 9-2 loss. He now has four homers and seven RBI in 76 plate appearances. The appearance today was Matos’s first in six days and just his second since May 19. Still just 23 years old, he could benefit from getting sent down to play regularly at some point.
Hayden Birdsong pitched 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball Sunday in a victory over the Marlins.
Birdsong fanned five and walked none. He gave up three hits to Xavier Edwards and two to everyone else. Birdsong was won two of his three starts, though those two victories have come against poor offenses (the other was versus the Royals). Still, he’s probably done enough to hold off Kyle Harrison and keep his rotation spot after Justin Verlander is activated. He’s slated to face the Braves next weekend.
Camilo Doval recorded a four-out save against the Marlins on Sunday.
A little shaky today. Doval replaced Erik Miller with two on and two out in a two-run game in the eighth and issued a walk before stranding the bases loaded. He gave up a leadoff single in the ninth, only to get a double-play ball afterwards. He then walked another batter and balked him to second base before getting a little tapper to end the game. In all, just nine of his 21 pitches went as strikes. Still, he went without allowing a run for the 21st straight appearance.
Ryan Weathers lost to the Giants after allowing four runs in six innings Sunday.
Weathers got seven strikeouts and 17 whiffs today, but a bad fourth inning did him in and he took his first loss in four starts since coming off the injured list. He’ll bring a 2.49 ERA into his next start in Tampa against the Rays.
Xavier Edwards went 5-for-5 with a double and an RBI in the 4-2 loss to the Giants on Sunday.
Unfortunately, Edwards’ teammates went 4-for-30. The last time a player had five hits for a team that scored two runs or fewer was 2016, when the Guardians’ Lonnie Chisenhall went 5-for-8 in a 19-inning game. The last time it happened in a nine-inning game was when George Springer went 5-for-5 in the Astros’ 4-1 loss to the White Sox on June 10, 2015. Edwards, who was making his first start after being activated from the IL on Saturday, raised his average from .262 to .282 today.
Kyle Stowers finished 0-for-4 with three strikeouts against the Giants on Sunday.
He’s 1-for-25 with nine strikeouts in his last seven games. Stowers had to slump at some point, and he definitely has some runway with the Marlins after his stellar start. The Rockies are coming to town tomorrow, so that ought to help.