Welcome to another day of MLB DFS here at Fantasy Alarm. We get a great 7-game early slate on DraftKings kicking off at 4:05 PM EST.

 

 

This is a smaller slate so the options for pitching feel very limited. Some of the value guys might be more appealing if they were not in difficult matchups. We don’t have to worry about Coors Field on this slate and the weather looks good everywhere outside of some possible rain in Atlanta.

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MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook 

MLB Weather: Today, 6/15

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves

There are light showers in the area which could cause some delays if they make their way to the park.

MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts

On a smaller slate like this, I find myself paying up for pitching. The value options are not very appealing and despite some of the top arms being in difficult spots, their upside far outweighs anything I would expect from the bottom half of the card.

When it comes to offense, I have a lot of interest in the Orioles, Reds, and some Brewers. The Brewers are in an interesting spot as they are a much better offensive against righties, but Andrew Abbott is giving up a ton of home runs, at 2.68/9. The Braves are starting to come around and are always an option, but they have been so inconsistent it’s a question of which version of the team is going to show up.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers

Top Options for Strikeouts

Best Odds for a Win

 

 

Core MLB DFS Pitchers

Update: Justin Verlander scratched. Spencer Arrighetti is getting the start.

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

Justin Verlander is the top-priced arm on this slate and looks like the best option. He’s coming off two unimpressive starts where he allowed four runs in each and only tallied seven strikeouts across both, but he had nine strikeouts in each of the two previous. He’s matched up against Detroit who rank in the middle of the league in most categories while holding the seventh-highest strikeout rate at 24.1%. Verlander saw the Tigers a month ago in a game where he went seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts on two hits. We just saw Hunter Brown completely dominate this lineup on Friday night and Verlander should be in a position to find success here.

Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros

With Verlander out, Spencer Arrighetti definitely changes things. He is a reasonable value option against a Tigers team that still ranks in the bottom half of the league in offensive with the seventh highest strikeout rate at 24.2%. Arrighetti holds a 10.49 K/9 on the season and found at least six strikeouts in four of his last five starts. The biggest issue with him is he is walking way too many batters, with at least three walks in his last four starts. He's only allowed two runs over his last three starts and only one home run in the last five, so the upside is definitely there considering his price tag. Detroit has one of the lowest walk rates in the league at 7.8% so if he can limit the free passes, he could be set up for a solid start in Verlander's place.

Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves

Charlie Morton has not been very impressive in recent outings, only reaching double-digit fantasy points in two of his last five games, but the Rays are a great matchup on paper. On the season they rank in the bottom five in most offensive categories while holding a 23.8% strikeout rate. His strikeouts are slightly down from his last few seasons but he is still striking out 23.9% of batters. Two of his poor starts came against the Nationals who are a team we tend to avoid, but the Rays have been one of the teams we have been targeting as they continue to struggle offensively. 

Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles

Grayson Rodriguez has looked great in his sophomore season, holding a 3.27 ERA with 10.09 K/9 and a 7-1 record. He’s recorded at least six strikeouts in four of his last five games and the 107 pitches thrown in his last game is an encouraging number. This will be a tougher matchup compared to the last five teams he saw as the Phillies are a top-10 offense in almost every category against right-handed pitching. He’s only allowing a .205 BA to left-handed hitters so if he can avoid Bryce Harper, he could have a solid outing. The Orioles are also the biggest favorites on the board so he should come with plenty of win equity while they are -180 on the money line.

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

On a smaller slate like this without many pitchers, Ryan Pepiot is likely as low as I would look today. It of course comes with some risk being matched up against the Braves. Pepiot has allowed at least three runs in four of his last five starts but the strikeouts have been there. He’s tallied seven or more strikeouts in three straight games, including nine against one of the best offenses in Baltimore. Over the past month, the Braves rank in the bottom 10 in most offensive categories and hold the seventh-highest strikeout rate at 24.6% against right-handed arms. The Braves are still a scary lineup but Pepiot makes an interesting tournament play.

 

 

Recommended MLB DFS Hitters

Highest Expected Run Totals  

Core MLB DFS Hitters

Note: Will Be Updated as Official Starting Lineups Are Released

Gunnar Henderson, SS, Baltimore Orioles

Over his last 10 games, Gunnar Henderson is hitting .308 with two home runs, six extra-base hits, and one steal. He’s had hits in eight straight games and is in a great spot here leading off against Taijuan Walker. Walker is allowing a .411 wOBA, .330 BA, and .568 SLG to left-handed bats. On the other side, Gunnar holds a .333 ISO and has hit 17 of his 21 home runs against righties. He’s the most expensive bat on the slate and is my favorite spend-up. The Orioles have the highest implied run total at five so taking the leadoff hitter with 21 home runs on the season feels very good.

Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

Jeimer Candelario is on a tear right now. Over his last 10 games, he is batting .326 with a 1.155 OPS, six home runs, 12 RBI, and two steals. He has home runs in back-to-back games and though this game is not in Cincinnati, he’s in another great spot against Bryse Wilson. Against left-handed bats, Wilson is allowing a .429 wOBA, .323 BA, and .591 SLG. Combine this with Jeimer’s .297 ISO and he could very well put another ball in the seats. His very affordable price tag allows for stacking with some of the other lefties on the Reds, but if I just want exposure to the lineup, Candelario is the one I’m using.

Lane Thomas, OF, Washington Nationals

Lane Thomas is riding an eight-game hit streak and hit a home run in his last game. He comes with power and elite speed, with 16 steals on the season. His ability to run can pay off his price tag alone, but with a lefty on the mound, this is the split to play him. His .231 BA may not look so hot, but he is hitting .311 with a .807 OPS against lefties. He’s recorded double-digit fantasy points on DraftKings in six of his last eight games and he’s not overly expensive for the upside he can provide.

Jurickson Profar, OF, San Diego Padres

Jurickson Profar is having himself a season, batting .324 with a .921 OPS and 10 home runs. He’s been great against both splits, but better against lefties, with a .439 wOBA, 1.016 OPS, and .216 ISO. Jose Quintana has allowed more home runs to lefties, but right-handed bats are hitting .281 against him. As a team, the Padres have been much better against righties but I like Profar in a mini-stack or even as a one-off. He has a walk rate of 13.5% so he is very rarely going to give you 0 fantasy points and his price tag is more than fair.

 


 

Player Pool

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