MLB DFS Picks & Playbook For Today’s Games: Monday, June 17th
![Sonny Gray MLB DFS June 17](https://d29m18w01sxjzp.cloudfront.net/thumbnails/source/fatest/gettyimages-2156694372-594x594-1000x600.jpg)
Published: Jun 17, 2024
We've got a full nine-game classic slate to work through tonight! With many aces and some good hitting spots, we broke down everything you need to know for tonight's DFS slate.
Make sure to check out today's MLB playbook below before you get your lineups in on DraftKings and FanDuel as we present our MLB DFS picks for today, June 17th!
MLB DFS Picks & Daily Fantasy Playbook Today, June 17
MLB Weather Today, 6/17
There's a low chance of a delay. It doesn't seem too concerning.
MLB DFS Lineup Construction Thoughts
While Paul Skenes gets all the love, Sonny Gray has actually struck out batters at a higher rate in the last month than Skenes. I don't mind paying up for Gray over Skenes in tonight's slate. Although, both are in good positions to succeed tonight.
On the other hand, I like the Rangers and Mets matchups tonight. For example, Peterson and Gray are pitching against one another, so I wouldn't play both on DraftKings. But read up on the analysts and decide between those two if you're looking for a lower-tier play.
Recommended MLB DFS Starting Pitchers
Top Options For Strikeouts
- Paul Skenes (8.5, +130) vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Sonny Gray (6.5, -125) vs. Miami Marlins
- Yusei Kikuchi (6.5, -125) vs. Boston Red Sox
- Max Fried (6.5, +125) vs. Detroit Tigers
Best Odds For A Win
- Paul Skenes (-105) vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Cristopher Sanchez (+135) vs. San Diego Padres
- Max Fried (+115) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Sonny Gray (+120) vs. Miami Marlins
Core MLB DFS Pitchers
Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals
Sonny Gray is easily the best option on the board. He's struck out 34.5% of batters in the last 30 days and has held teams to a .082 ISO and wOBA of .225 in that same time frame. In addition, Gray has induced 56.7% of ground balls and has held opponents to 11.7% of line drives.
Meanwhile, he'll take on a Marlins projected lineup that has hit a .117 ISO and wOBA of .287 in the last 30 days against righties. This lineup has struck out 22.6% of the time and has earned 3.6% of walks in the previous month against righties. The Marlins literally have seven batters who have struck out at least 19.7% of the time against righties in those last 30 days against righties. With so many targets, Gray should have a massive night against the Marlins.
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Regarding matchups, I'd roll with Sonny Gray over Paul Skenes. That said, you can't go wrong with Skenes at all tonight. After all, Skenes has limited teams to a .126 ISO and wOBA of .267 over the last 30 days. He's also struck out 30.8% of batters and has limited walks to 3.3%.
The only blemish for Skenes is that his line drive rate has increased to 28.3% over the last month. However, the Reds' projected lineup combined for just 21.1% of line drives against righties in that same time frame.
Jon Gray, Texas Rangers
Jon Gray just returned from injury. But against his last 43 batters, he's held his first 23 righties to a .000 ISO and wOBA of .193. Meanwhile, he's struggled against lefties, allowing a .267 ISO and wOBA of .430. But he'll only face three lefties in the New York projected lineup.
Those three lefties, between Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, and Jeff McNeil, have hit just a .123 ISO and wOBA of .288. Gray has a fair matchup and isn't a bad mid-tier option play if you're trying to sneak in better bats.
David Peterson, New York Mets
Don't expect a high strikeout rate from David Peterson. However, the lefty still has a terrific matchup against the Texas Rangers tonight. Ultimately, the Rangers have hit a .095 ISO and wOBA of .290 using their projected lineup over the last 30 days against lefties. Only Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia have hit for an ISO of above .148 against lefties in that time.
Meanwhile, Peterson has held teams to a .119 ISO over the last 30 days. He's also induced 57.4% of ground balls and has limited teams to 16.4% of fly balls. Beyond that, Peterson has kept walks to 6.8%. As one of the lowest starters on the slate, Peterson could be a very valuable play tonight.
Recommended MLB DFS Hitters
Highest Expected Run Totals
- Los Angeles Dodgers (6.5, -125) vs. Colorado Rockies
- Colorado Rockies (5.5, +105) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Philadelphia Phillies (5.5, +114) vs. San Diego Padres
- San Francisco Giants (5.5, +110) vs. Chicago Cubs
- Chicago Cubs (4.5, -140) vs. San Francisco Giants
- Atlanta Braves (4.5, -120) vs. Detroit Tigers
- Pittsburgh Pirates (4.5, -110) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Core MLB DFS Hitters
Kyle Schwarber, OF, Bryce Harper, 1B, David Dahl, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
While it's exciting that Trea Turner is back on the field, I'd still rather target the lefties on the Phillies tonight. The Phillies are facing Randy Vasquez of the Padres, who has allowed a .259 ISO and wOBA of .515 to his first 63 lefties this season. Even over the last 30 days, Vasquez has given up a .200 ISO and wOBA of .450 to lefties.
In addition, Vasquez has earned 11.1% of strikeouts against lefties this season. Meanwhile, he'll face a few fierce lefties in the Philadelphia order. Kyle Schwarber has smacked a .208 ISO and wOBA of .403 over the last 30 days against righties. The power is starting to come from Schwarber.
Bryce Harper has contributed a .182 ISO and wOBA of .374 with only 17.7% of strikeouts against righties in the last month. Finally, although David Dahl has a smaller sample size, he's added a .400 ISO and wOBA of .382 over the last 30 days. I'd target those hitters against Vasquez tonight.
Tyler O'Neill, OF, Boston Red Sox
Tyler O'Neill has hit a .250 ISO and wOBA of .433 against his last 16 lefties faced. While his strikeout rate is high, when O'Neill connects, it's usually hard contact. In those 16 at-bats, when he's connected, he's hit 80% hard contact and has launched 40% of fly balls with an above-average barrel percentage.
He'll face Yusei Kikuchi, a lefty for the Blue Jays. While Kikuchi has been solid this season, he's still allowed a .170 ISO and wOBA of .355 to his last 100 righties. Those righties have also struck out only 16% of the time. Therefore, O'Neill's strikeout rate could improve against Kikuchi. Again, if O'Neill doesn't strike out, it's usually loud contact.
Jarred Kelenic, OF, Matt Olson, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Although Reese Olson has had a tremendous year, the Tigers' righty has struggled against lefties over the last month. Reese Olson has allowed a .388 ISO and wOBA of .574 to his last 55 lefties. He's also struck out only 16.4% of lefties in the previous 30 days. Meanwhile, Matt Olson, a lefty, has hit a .219 ISO and wOBA of .359. He's starting to find his power against righties after a slow start.
Also, Jarred Kelenic is really turning it on, especially in the lead-off spot for the Braves. As a left-handed hitter, he's smashed a .300 ISO and wOBA of .406 against righties in the last 30 days. Consider those two for your lineups, with Reese Olson allowing 40.5% of line drives to lefties in the last 30 days.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Jacob Stallings, C, Hunter Goodman, OF, Colorado Rockies
Everyone's expecting runs in tonight's game between the Rockies and Dodgers in Coors Field. And so am I. The Dodgers will pitch James Paxton, who is a lefty struggling against righties. Paxton has walked more righties than he's struck out this season. He's also allowed a .159 ISO and wOBA of .327 against those righties.
Ezequiel Tovar has hit a .222 ISO and wOBA of .354 against lefties over the last month. Jacob Stallings has been absolutely on fire with a .545 ISO and wOBA of .629 against his last 13 lefties. Finally, Hunter Goodman has slugged a .400 ISO and wOBA of .470.
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