Fantasy Impact Of MLB Ballpark Factors: 2024 Preview

The 2024 MLB season is right around the corner and we are just days away from teams departing their various Spring Training facilities. When it comes to fantasy baseball, we're looking for every possible advantage we can find. So that begs the question:

How can we use our knowledge of a player's home ballpark to help us in fantasy baseball?

This is where MLB Ballpark Factors come into play. In short, park factors are a great way of determining the extent to which a stadium favors hitters or pitchers. It looks at the events that happen in a given park, and not the players involved. Teams play 81 games at home each season, so strong home/road splits can make a big difference in fantasy baseball.

Be sure to use our 2024 MLB Park Factors & Ratings stats throughout the season to see which ballparks are affecting your fantasy teams the most throughout the season.

In this article, we're going to look at the entirety of the 2023 season to see what stands out as we prepare for our 2024 Fantasy Baseball Drafts.

MLB Changes In 2023

The 2023 MLB season was defined by some massive changes, including pitch timers, limits on defensive shifts, and larger bases. Each of these changes had anywhere from mild to massive effects on the game.

Two ballparks also made significant updates to their outfields. In turn, data tells us that offenses played differently in 2023 due to these changing MLB Ballpark Factors.

Let’s look at a couple of changes made to a few specific ballparks and see what was impacted. 

Impact From 2023 MLB Ballpark Updates

For the 2024 season, there are no Major League ballparks that have made significant upgrades over the offseason that would have any meaningful impact on the offensive nature of how the park plays. Knowing that, we should consult Baseball Savant's Statcast data and look at the impact these changes can have on ballparks year over year.

Comerica Park (Detroit)

Last season, the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays both made significant changes to their outfield fences and depth of outfield walls. Comerica Park in Detroit moved in their centerfield wall from 422 feet to 412 feet and lowered the walls in center, right-center, and right. What was the effect of this change after one season?

In 2023, Comerica Park ranked 19th in overall park factor with a 98, meaning offense was just 2% below league average. That is a significant boost from 2022 when the park factor in Detroit was a 94 (26th). After one season, the change to the walls increased offense by about four percentage points. Here is a look at the other factors:

Other than a slight bump in home runs, these updates did not have a significant impact on offense in Detroit. 

Rogers Centre (Toronto)

The changes that the Blue Jays announced to their outfield were more extensive, but also much more convoluted than what we heard from Detroit. Their changes were: 

• Left-field line: 328 feet (no change), wall at 14 feet 4 inches (previously 10 feet)
• Right-field line: 328 feet (no change), wall at 12 feet 7 inches (prev. 10 feet)
• Left center: 368 feet (prev. 375 feet), wall at 11 feet 2 inches (prev. 10 feet)
• Right center: 359 feet (prev. 375 feet), wall at 14 feet 4 inches (prev. 10 feet)
• Left-center power alley: 381 feet (prev. 383 feet), wall at 12 feet 9 inches (prev. 10 feet)
• Right-center power alley: 372 feet (prev. 383 feet), wall at 10 feet 9 inches (prev. 10 feet)
• Center field: 400 feet (no change), wall at 8 feet (prev. 10 feet)

These changes were kind of all over the place with some walls coming in but their height going up? Some didn't change. And still others saw their height go down. What were the effects? See below:

It's clear that the changes in Toronto had a significant negative effect on the offense in that stadium, at least after one year. It's something to consider when trying to decide whether or not to reach for Bo Bichette or pay the extra dollar for Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. 

New MLB Ballparks In The Near Future

While none of these new parks are anywhere near opening, each have been announced for future construction, or are already in the building phase:

Tampa Bay Rays - The Rays have unveiled plans for a $1.3 billion stadium to replace Tropicana Field. No more balls getting lost in the white ceiling, I guess. 

Oakland Athletics - Assuming the team moves to Las Vegas, as is planned, there will be a need for a new Major League ballpark in that city. Planning is already underway. 

Kansas City Royals - The Royals have played in Kauffman Stadium since 1973 and are planning a new ballpark closer to downtown Kansas City.

Chicago White Sox - What was opened as Comiskey Park in 1991 is now Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox are looking to move into a new stadium sometime in the next five years. 

Why Are Park Factors Important for Fantasy?

The Toronto and Detroit stadiums are good examples of how we can evaluate and utilize park factors to our advantage in fantasy baseball. There are a couple of ways we can do this:

1. Exploiting lineups in leagues with daily lineup changes or in DFS
2. Using park factors to evaluate pitchers based on how they historically play to that pitcher’s handedness
3. Using park factors as tie-breakers between marginal players in mid- or late-round drafting situations

Most sites now offer weekly leagues, but with an option for daily swaps or even a Friday/mid-week swap for injuries, lineups decisions based on matchups in certain parks can be useful. Using park factors, we can find perfect opportunities to swap out players with marginal to weak park factors for another bench player who might be facing second-tier pitchers at Great American Ballpark or stream pitchers who might face the Athletics at the Oakland Coliseum. 

In drafting, park factors can also help make a quick decision between two otherwise similar players. Consider this example: In NFBC leagues, James Outman (OF43, ADP 181) and Brandon Nimmo (OF44, ADP 191) are picked within ten slots of each other in January and early February drafts. Here are some career comparisons:

How do we choose between these two when we are on the clock? 

There are some clear things that separate them (experience being a major one, lineup slot another, and team context favoring Outman), but there are also a lot of similarities there. If you need more on-base percentage, you would go with Nimmo. If you are short on power, Outman might be your best bet. 

But all things being equal, Brandon Nimmo playing half his games at Citi Field might tip the scales towards Outman when you are on the clock and faced with the decision. Here are their parks for the last three seasons:

Citi Field (Nimmo): 

Runs – 28th
Home Runs – 18th
Doubles – 30th
Overall – 27th

Dodger Stadium (Outman): 

Runs – 20th
Home Runs – 2nd
Doubles – 19th
Overall – 20th

Certainly, many other factors come into play and this just considers them in a vacuum. But 81 potential games at Dodger Stadium over 81 games at Citi Field could be a useful tie-breaker.

Best Offensive Parks 

According to Statcast data on Baseball Savant, here are the top three offensive parks for each of these categories from 2021-2023:

Takeaways: We knew that Coors and Great American Ball Park were hitter’s paradise, but Fenway and Kauffman have been quite friendly for offense as a whole for three full years, although not necessarily home runs. Two new stadiums took over second and third place for home runs after last year. Yankee Stadium now jumps back into the list of stadiums where home runs fly, ranking third for both righties and lefties. 

Best Pitcher Parks

According to Statcast data on Baseball Savant, here are the top three pitcher-friendly parks for each for these categories from 2021-2023:

Takeaways: Looking for a reason to throw an extra dollar or two at George Kirby, Luis Castillo, or Logan Gilbert this year? T-Mobile Park looks like the park pitchers dream right now. Yankee Stadium likely only rates this high on the hits because it is a power alley that we saw above allows an inordinate amount of home runs. Many fly balls there that would otherwise be hits turn into homers. Pitchers for the Padres also get a bump considering how weak Petco Park is playing for offenses. And Kauffman Stadium may be a good place for offense these days, but not necessarily home runs.  

What to Watch For in 2024

With no real stadium updates to be watching for, this season could be defined once again by changes in MLB rules that the Competition Committee believe will continue to speed up pace of play and also make the game more enjoyable for a variety of fans. 

Continued changes coming in 2024 include:

• The runner's lane to first has now been expanded, widening the area a runner has to run to first without causing interference
• Pitch clock will now be 18 seconds with men on base instead of 20 seconds
• Mound visits will reduce from five to four for each team
• If a pitcher goes out to warm up between innings, they must face at least one batter (as opposed to being replaced before throwing a pitch)

The offensive environments in both Detroit and Toronto will also be under the microscope again to see if the offensive impact of their new outfield walls is something that will be sustainable. 

Good luck out there this season and hopefully the baseballs are flying around the park again soon.