MLB Best Bets Today, 5/21: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Wednesday
Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Wednesday, May 21st, 2025! Happy mid-week of the baseball action as we have a full slate of games with all 30 teams set to play. We will look to build off a winning day on Monday, where I went 4-2 on the bets, and there will be no shortage of games to look at tonight. Check out the rationale below, and if you agree with me, let’s ride on these wagers together.
In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!
Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!
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- Bankroll: +11.7 units
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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/21
Braves vs. Nationals Predictions
Atlanta may have lost the opening game in the series yesterday to the Nationals, but today should be a different story! The game has some weather concerns, but if it gets played, there are a couple of wagers to be made in this matchup, so let’s dive in.
The Nationals will be sending out Trevor Williams to pitch today, and he’s one of their worst starters right now. Over his 3 starts this month, he’s pitched 15.2 innings and given up 12 runs, 21 hits, and has just 12 strikeouts! He’s also struggling to get outs against left-handed hitters, something the Braves have plenty of! Against lefties, Williams is allowing a .383 average and 1.014 OPS on the season, yikes. This mark puts players like Alex Verdugo, Matt Olson, Michael Harris, and Ozzie Albies on our radar, but Olson is the best of the crop right now. Over the last 6 games, Olson is hitting .375 with an OPS of 1.218 that includes 3 homers and two doubles! With these numbers of late going over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs should be a walk in the park, so let’s lay down that wager.
In addition to the Braves' offense, they’ll start AJ Smith-Shawver, and the young righty has pitched very well in May over 3 starts. In 19.2 innings of work, he’s allowed just 1 earned run and has struck out 18 batters, so safe to say he’s really cooking with gas. His start mixed with the Atlanta splits on offense should give the Braves a win tonight, so take them on the Money Line.
Pick: Braves Money Line (-155 on DraftKings)
Pick: Matt Olson (ATL) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-130 on DraftKings)
Astros vs. Rays Predictions
For a matinee wager, look no further than the Astros and Rays facing off today at 1pm ET in the afternoon! It should be a good one for the struggling Astros tonight as they have Hunter Brown on the mound against the Rays’ own Taj Bradley, but let’s dig in some more.
Hunter Brown has been one of the best pitchers in the American League so far this season, and over his last 50 innings pitched, he’s given up just 7 earned runs and 29 hits while collecting a massive 60 strikeouts! Those numbers should sustain again today as the Rays have a team K-rate of 23.4%, the 4th highest number in MLB against right-handed pitchers on the season! Brown’s strikeout prop sits at 6.5 tonight, and that’s usually a tall number for any pitcher, but he’s cleared this total in his last 5 starts easily, and I think he continues that roll again today.
As for the attacking Taj Bradley on the Rays side, he’s had issues against righty hitters all season, allowing a .283 average with 4 home runs and an OPS of .823. That should play to the advantage of lead-off man Jeremy Pena, who has an OBP of .407 over the past 7 games and will have Isaac Parades and Jose Altuve hitting behind him. If he can get a hit and get on base, then his hits/runs/RBIs prop of 1.5 should be a smooth sailing over wager.
Pick: Hunter Brown (HOU) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130 on DraftKings)
Pick: Jeremy Pena (HOU) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-140 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/21
Pick: Luis Arraez (SD) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-140 on DraftKings)
Pick: Mets & Red Sox Under 8 Runs (-115 on DraftKings)
Pick: Orioles Money Line (+105 on DraftKings)
Pick: Royals & Giants Under 7.5 Runs (-140 on DraftKings)
Player News
Jeremy Peña (rib) told reporters he’s progressed to light hitting, fielding and running.
Peña added that he doesn’t have an exact return timeline yet, but believes he’s moving in the right direction. The 27-year-old is at the Midsummer Classic for the first time in his career, but won’t play in Tuesday’s All-Star Game at Truist Park as he recovers from a fractured rib that he suffered in late June. There should be a clearer return timetable once he begin ramping up baseball activities after the break.
Grant Hartwig has signed a contract with the Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseaball.
Hartwig heads overseas after making 32 relief appearances for the Mets since 2023. The 27-year-old righty posted a strong 29 percent strikeout rate this season for Triple-A Syracuse, but never wound up getting the call back to New York. He was cut loose earlier this month to pursue a more lucrative opportunity over in Japan.
The Athletic’s Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal report that a sale of the Rays has been agreed to in principal to sell the franchise to a group led by Patrick Zalupski for roughly $1.7 billion.
Drellich and Rosenthal add that the finalized sale is expected to be completed as early as September and that the Zalupski group plans to keep the club in the greater Tampa area with a preference for Tampa over St. Petersburg. It’s the first change in ownership for the franchise since Stuart Sternberg purchased the club for $200 million back in 2004.
Shohei Ohtani is at DH and leading off for the National League in the 2025 MLB All-Star Game.
Ohtani closed out the first half with a senior circuit-leading 32 round-trippers and a sparkling 1.00 ERA across nine innings (five starts). The 31-year-old two-way sensation spearheads an absolute Death Star of a lineup that features Atlanta’s primary igniter Ronald Acuña Jr., in addition to a pair of his Los Angeles teammates in Freddie Freeman and Will Smith. Here is the full lineup that will take the field on Tuesday evening at Truist Park in Atlanta for the Midsummer Classic: Ohtani (DH), Acuña Jr. (LF), Ketel Marte (2B), Freeman (1B), Manny Machado (3B), Smith (C), Kyle Tucker (RF), Francisco Lindor (SS) and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF).
Aaron Judge is in right field and will bat third for the American League in the 2025 MLB All-Star Game.
Judge headlines a formidable American League lineup, which features Mariners slugging backstop Cal Raleigh — who leads the majors with a staggering 38 round-trippers — in the cleanup spot, for Tuesday’s Midsummer Classic at Truist Park in Atlanta. It also features three members of the American League-leading Tigers, who finished the first half with 59 victories. Here’s the full lineup: Gleyber Torres (2B), Riley Greene (LF), Judge (RF), Raleigh (C), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B), Ryan O’Hearn (DH), Junior Caminero (3B), Javier Báez (CF) and Jacob Wilson (SS).
Mets sent OF Travis Jankowski outright to Triple-A Syracuse.
Jankowski’s well-known affinity for the Mets likely means he’ll stick around as extra organizational outfield depth rather than elect free agency after going unclaimed on waivers. The 34-year-old speedster was only up for a couple weeks with New York, getting into four games and finishing with a grand total of exactly one plate appearance.