Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Wednesday, May 21st, 2025! Happy mid-week of the baseball action as we have a full slate of games with all 30 teams set to play. We will look to build off a winning day on Monday, where I went 4-2 on the bets, and there will be no shortage of games to look at tonight. Check out the rationale below, and if you agree with me, let’s ride on these wagers together. 

In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!

Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!

  • Season Record: 88-65-4
  • Bankroll: +11.7 units

Follow me on twitter @jwaggs10

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/21

Braves vs. Nationals Predictions

Atlanta may have lost the opening game in the series yesterday to the Nationals, but today should be a different story! The game has some weather concerns, but if it gets played, there are a couple of wagers to be made in this matchup, so let’s dive in. 

The Nationals will be sending out Trevor Williams to pitch today, and he’s one of their worst starters right now. Over his 3 starts this month, he’s pitched 15.2 innings and given up 12 runs, 21 hits, and has just 12 strikeouts! He’s also struggling to get outs against left-handed hitters, something the Braves have plenty of! Against lefties, Williams is allowing a .383 average and 1.014 OPS on the season, yikes. This mark puts players like Alex Verdugo, Matt Olson, Michael Harris, and Ozzie Albies on our radar, but Olson is the best of the crop right now. Over the last 6 games, Olson is hitting .375 with an OPS of 1.218 that includes 3 homers and two doubles! With these numbers of late going over 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs should be a walk in the park, so let’s lay down that wager.

In addition to the Braves' offense, they’ll start AJ Smith-Shawver, and the young righty has pitched very well in May over 3 starts. In 19.2 innings of work, he’s allowed just 1 earned run and has struck out 18 batters, so safe to say he’s really cooking with gas. His start mixed with the Atlanta splits on offense should give the Braves a win tonight, so take them on the Money Line.

Pick: Braves Money Line (-155 on DraftKings)

Pick: Matt Olson (ATL) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-130 on DraftKings)

 

 

 

Astros vs. Rays Predictions

For a matinee wager, look no further than the Astros and Rays facing off today at 1pm ET in the afternoon! It should be a good one for the struggling Astros tonight as they have Hunter Brown on the mound against the Rays’ own Taj Bradley, but let’s dig in some more. 

Hunter Brown has been one of the best pitchers in the American League so far this season, and over his last 50 innings pitched, he’s given up just 7 earned runs and 29 hits while collecting a massive 60 strikeouts! Those numbers should sustain again today as the Rays have a team K-rate of 23.4%, the 4th highest number in MLB against right-handed pitchers on the season! Brown’s strikeout prop sits at 6.5 tonight, and that’s usually a tall number for any pitcher, but he’s cleared this total in his last 5 starts easily, and I think he continues that roll again today. 

As for the attacking Taj Bradley on the Rays side, he’s had issues against righty hitters all season, allowing a .283 average with 4 home runs and an OPS of .823. That should play to the advantage of lead-off man Jeremy Pena, who has an OBP of .407 over the past 7 games and will have Isaac Parades and Jose Altuve hitting behind him. If he can get a hit and get on base, then his hits/runs/RBIs prop of 1.5 should be a smooth sailing over wager. 

Pick: Hunter Brown (HOU) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130 on DraftKings)

Pick: Jeremy Pena (HOU) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-140 on DraftKings)
 

 


 

Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/21

Pick: Luis Arraez (SD) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-140 on DraftKings)

Pick: Mets & Red Sox Under 8 Runs (-115 on DraftKings)

Pick: Orioles Money Line (+105 on DraftKings)

Pick: Royals & Giants Under 7.5 Runs (-140 on DraftKings)