MLB Best Bets Today, 5/14: Picks, Predictions & Player Props
Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Wednesday, May 14th, 2025! Its hump day in baseball and that means moving day for many teams ending their early week series which of course leads to early start times. Half of the slate today is before 4 pm Eastern, so make sure to get those wagers in early and check out my picks for those games below!
In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!
Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!
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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/14
Rockies vs. Rangers Predictions
While the Rangers did win last night against the Rockies, a lot of us, including me, were left wanting a bit more from the offensive production as they scored just 4 runs, and the only guy to hit his prop lines was Josh Jung. I am willing to go back to the well again tonight, though, as Antonio Senzatela takes the mound and he’s been rather poor for the Rockies.
Over the course of 39 innings pitched, Senzatela has been on the mound for 31 runs against, 66 hits, and has just 19 strikeouts. Seeing as the Rangers rank in the bottom third of strikeout rate at 20.7% against righties, they will be putting the ball in play today, and that’s bad news for the Rockies starter. The team total for the Rangers is 5.5, and that seems high given their scoring averages, but sometimes the matchup is right, and the trends are remade in front of us. Give me the Rangers to hit that over on the team total.
Then there’s a batter that is going to help them achieve this team total over, and that man is Josh Smith, who is projected to hit lead off today. His .326 average against right-handed pitching is one of the team’s best behind just Corey Seager, and given the way this game will go, I expect 5 at-bats from the lead-off man and him to go over his 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs prop.
Pick: Rangers Team Total Over 5.5 (+110 on DraftKings)
Pick: Josh Smith (TEX) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-155 on DraftKings)
Brewers vs. Guardians Predictions
This one starts in the early afternoon, so buckle up to wager on your lunch break! This matchup breaks heavily in favor of the Brewers for me, given the matchup, but let’s dive in deeper here.
Gavin Williams will start for Cleveland on the mound today, and while he’s been average, he’s really struggling against right-handed hitters this season, allowing an average of .400 and an OPS of 1.053. Luckily for him, most of the Brewers' lineup at the top are lefties, but not young superstar Jackson Chourio! Chourio is hitting .292 over the last 7 days with an OPS of .804 and has 2 walks to go along with his hitting. Needless to say, he is going to be on base today, and his prop of hits/runs/RBIs is what I like for him as the over of 1.5 seems attainable without too much trouble.
In addition to the prop, I like the Brewers to win this game today as they’ve dropped the opening pair of games in the series, in which they were shut out in both. The averages are going to regress in a positive way for Milwaukee as it's so hard to sweep a team in the majors, and it's even harder to do it when you don’t have the advantage in the pitching department.
Pick: Jackson Chourio (MIL) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)
Pick: Brewers Money Line (-105 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/14
Pick: Corbin Carroll (ARI) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-155 on DraftKings)
Pick: Jackson Merrill (SD) Over 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (+105 on BetMGM)
Pick: Nationals Money Line (+140 on ESPNBet)
Pick: Pirates & Mets Over 8 Runs (-110 on BetMGM)
Player News
Rockies released LHP Jefry Yan.
The 28-year-old southpaw requested his release from his minor league deal with the Rockies and the club obliged. Yan has been hit extremely hard at Triple-A Albuquerque this season, registering a 7.28 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and a 45/22 K/BB ratio across 29 2/3 innings in 27 appearances. He’s now free to sign with any team of his choosing.
Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy told reporters after the game that Chris Martin was diagnosed with a left calf strain.
The 39-year-old hurler suffered the injury while delivering a pitch in the eighth inning of Sunday’s battle against the Tigers. No word yet on the severity of the strain, but it sounds like a trip to the injured list could be in Martin’s future.
Zach McKinstry singled, walked, drove in a run and swiped a base on Sunday night as the Tigers eked out a 2-1 victory over the Rangers to snap their six-game losing streak.
McKinstry opened the scoring in the ballgame with an RBI single off of Jacob Latz in the second inning. He then walked in the second inning and swiped second base, but the Tigers left him stranded there. He has had a terrific season in a utility role for the Tigers, slashing .279/.361/.461 with eight homers, 32 RBI and 16 stolen bases.
Gleyber Torres went 3-for-4 with three singles, a walk and a run scored as the Tigers topped the Rangers on Sunday night to snap their season-high six-game losing skid.
Torres singled in the first inning, worked Jacob Latz for a walk in the third and singled again in the fifth, but the Tigers were never able to cash him in. The 28-year-old All-Star second baseman then reached on an infield single to start the eighth inning and scored the go-ahead run on a two-out RBI knock by Matt Vierling. With his three-hit attack, Torres is now hitting .282/.390/.421 with nine long balls, 45 RBI and four swipes on the season.
Will Vest slammed the door on the Rangers on Sunday night, recording the final four outs to preserve a one-run advantage.
Vest came on with the Tigers nursing a one-run lead with two outs in the eighth inning and he got Wyatt Langford on strikes to end the inning. He then returned for the ninth and needed just six pitches to retire Corey Seager on a ground ball to short, Marcus Semien on a fly ball to right and Adolis GarcÃa on strikes to end it. Vest now boasts a 2.28 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and a 49/15 K/BB ratio over 43 2/3 innings while converting 15 of his first 19 save chances on the season.
Tarik Skubal was forced to settle for a tough-luck no-decision against the Rangers on Sunday night after striking out 11 batters over 6 2/3 innings of one-run baseball.
Skubal scattered just four hits on the night and didn’t walk a batter. The only run charged against him came in the seventh inning as Skubal exited with runners at the corners and two outs — only to see Tyler Holton uncork a wild pitch that allowed Adolis Garcia to scamper home. The Tigers then retook the lead the next half inning. The superstar southpaw piled up 20 swings and misses over 105 pitches on the night — 10 on his fastball, nine on his changeup and one on his slider — while registering a strong CSW of 33 percent. He’ll carry a ridiculous 2.19 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and a 164/16 K/BB ratio (127 2/3 innings) into Friday’s outing against the Blue Jays.