MLB Best Bets Today, 5/14: Picks, Predictions & Player Props
Welcome to tonight’s MLB best bets for this slate of MLB action here at Fantasy Alarm on this Wednesday, May 14th, 2025! Its hump day in baseball and that means moving day for many teams ending their early week series which of course leads to early start times. Half of the slate today is before 4 pm Eastern, so make sure to get those wagers in early and check out my picks for those games below!
In this MLB Best Bets Today article, you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines to game totals and, on occasion, some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck!
Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!
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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/14
Rockies vs. Rangers Predictions
While the Rangers did win last night against the Rockies, a lot of us, including me, were left wanting a bit more from the offensive production as they scored just 4 runs, and the only guy to hit his prop lines was Josh Jung. I am willing to go back to the well again tonight, though, as Antonio Senzatela takes the mound and he’s been rather poor for the Rockies.
Over the course of 39 innings pitched, Senzatela has been on the mound for 31 runs against, 66 hits, and has just 19 strikeouts. Seeing as the Rangers rank in the bottom third of strikeout rate at 20.7% against righties, they will be putting the ball in play today, and that’s bad news for the Rockies starter. The team total for the Rangers is 5.5, and that seems high given their scoring averages, but sometimes the matchup is right, and the trends are remade in front of us. Give me the Rangers to hit that over on the team total.
Then there’s a batter that is going to help them achieve this team total over, and that man is Josh Smith, who is projected to hit lead off today. His .326 average against right-handed pitching is one of the team’s best behind just Corey Seager, and given the way this game will go, I expect 5 at-bats from the lead-off man and him to go over his 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs prop.
Pick: Rangers Team Total Over 5.5 (+110 on DraftKings)
Pick: Josh Smith (TEX) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-155 on DraftKings)
Brewers vs. Guardians Predictions
This one starts in the early afternoon, so buckle up to wager on your lunch break! This matchup breaks heavily in favor of the Brewers for me, given the matchup, but let’s dive in deeper here.
Gavin Williams will start for Cleveland on the mound today, and while he’s been average, he’s really struggling against right-handed hitters this season, allowing an average of .400 and an OPS of 1.053. Luckily for him, most of the Brewers' lineup at the top are lefties, but not young superstar Jackson Chourio! Chourio is hitting .292 over the last 7 days with an OPS of .804 and has 2 walks to go along with his hitting. Needless to say, he is going to be on base today, and his prop of hits/runs/RBIs is what I like for him as the over of 1.5 seems attainable without too much trouble.
In addition to the prop, I like the Brewers to win this game today as they’ve dropped the opening pair of games in the series, in which they were shut out in both. The averages are going to regress in a positive way for Milwaukee as it's so hard to sweep a team in the majors, and it's even harder to do it when you don’t have the advantage in the pitching department.
Pick: Jackson Chourio (MIL) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)
Pick: Brewers Money Line (-105 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 5/14
Pick: Corbin Carroll (ARI) Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-155 on DraftKings)
Pick: Jackson Merrill (SD) Over 2.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (+105 on BetMGM)
Pick: Nationals Money Line (+140 on ESPNBet)
Pick: Pirates & Mets Over 8 Runs (-110 on BetMGM)
Player News
Anthony Volpe went 3-for-4 with a home run and two runs scored in the Yankees’ 9-0 win over the Orioles on Saturday.
Volpe knocked a base hit in the third inning and scored on a single by Oswald Peraza. He then led off the bottom of the fifth with a solo blast off Andrew Kittredge before collecting his third hit of the day with a single in the sixth. The 24-year-old shortstop is hitting .236/.308/.424 with nine homers, 33 runs scored, 41 RBI, and eight steals across 306 plate appearances.
Ben Rice went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI against the Orioles on Saturday.
Rice got the start at first base and hit leadoff on Saturday. He took Zach Eflin deep for a solo homer in the second inning, then tripled to drive in a run in the fifth. The 26-year-old slugger is slashing .232/.315/.477 with 13 homers 34 runs scored, and 28 RBI across 249 plate appearances.
Trent Grisham went 3-for-5 with a solo homer against the Orioles on Saturday.
Grisham put the Yankees on the board with a solo homer off Zach Eflin in the first inning. He then added base hits in the second and third for a three-hit day. It was Grisham’s second homer in three games and just the second this month after hitting 13 through May. The 28-year-old outfielder is slashing .249/.349/484 with 15 homers and 37 runs scored across 255 plate appearances.
Clarke Schmidt tossed seven no-hit innings with five strikeouts in a win over the Orioles on Saturday.
Schmidt was dominant on the mound on Saturday, tossing seven no-hit frames against the Orioles. He walked two batters and struck out five before ending his day at 103 pitches after the seventh. J.T. Brubaker would surrender the team’s first hit in the eighth. Schmidt has now gone three straight starts without allowing a run. The 29-year-old right-hander will take a 2.84 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and a 65/26 K/BB ratio across 69 2/3 innings into a start against the Athletics in New York on Friday.
Ryan Pepiot pitched five innings of one-run ball and struck out seven in the Rays’ 8-3 victory over the Tigers on Saturday.
Although his ERA was fine, Pepiot’s strikeout rate was well down at 19.9% through the end of May. This month, though, he’s fanned 35 in four starts, giving him a 37.2% K rate. There’s no way that’s sustainable, but it still seems like a very good thing. The win today makes Pepiot 5-6 with a 3.04 ERA. He’ll face the Orioles in Baltimore next time out.
Pitching behind opener Brant Hurter, Sawyer Gipson-Long gave up four runs and three homers over 6 1/3 innings Saturday against the Rays.
This one started off terribly for Detroit. The second batter of the game reached on a strikeout/passed ball, and Hurter, who should have thrown an easy one-two-three frame, gave up a double, two walks, a HBP and a single with two outs, making the score 4-0. Gipson-Long came in and prevented further damage in the inning, but the Tigers never got back into the contest. At least Gipson-Long went on to get 19 outs, five more than in any of his previous three appearances, on only 68 pitches. Still, the home run ball did him in. He’s allowed five of those in 17 2/3 innings since returning from elbow surgery.