MLB Best Bets Today, 3/27: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - Thursday
Welcome into the Opening Day MLB Best Bets today here at Fantasy Alarm on this Thursday, March 27th! Excitement is in the air as spring begins and baseball is about to be underway!
I’m sure many of you, much like me, couldn't wait for the season to arrive and to uncork some wagers. But, before we dive into my MLB predictions, some advice as someone who wagers every day on multiple sports: the MLB season is a marathon not a sprint; it's about building bankroll over time, not 4-5 leg parlays.
Take the time to find a few matchups per day to exploit and never over-invest into one slate of MLB best bets!
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 3/27
In addition to starting this season, like seasons past I am advocating that you start the season with half unit wagers on my MLB best bets as well. Every season is unique and until we get our footing into who these teams and players are this season let’s gamble smart and learn as we go!
In this MLB Best Bets Today article you will find a wide array of choices from some Money Lines and to game totals and on occasion some player props! Check out the rationale and if you agree with me make sure to tail and good luck!
Now, let's dive into my expert MLB Best Bets today!
- Last Season Record: 220-174-3
- Bankroll: +25.4 units
*Follow me on twitter @jwaggs10
Pirates vs. Marlins Prediction: Thursday, March 27th
When looking through the slate on this opening day, few games to wager on stuck out to me more than this matchup! You have two fantastic pitchers going head to head today between Paul Skenes and Sandy Alcantara with offenses that shouldn’t give them much run support. That’s a perfect equation for an under to me but why wait 9 innings to cash the ticket when you can bet on the first 5 innings?
Skenes last season held down an ERA of 1.96 over 23 total starts which is just amazing and the Marlins on offense scored just 3.93 runs per game, the 4th fewest average in MLB. They didn’t get better either in the offense in terms of bats, they got worse, much worse. Skenes should go through them like a hot knife through butter!
On the Alcantara side the Pirates offense wasn’t much better last season scoring 4.1 runs per game and they really didn’t add much to the lineup either. Through 28 starts in 2023 Alcantara was serviceable with a 4.14 and a 3.1 K/BB ratio but I expect better numbers from him this season as they have shown in 2021 and 2022.
If you like pitchers’ duels this will be the one to watch and I will be taking the under on 3.5 total runs for the 1st 5 Innings of the game!
- Expert Pirates vs. Marlins Picks:
- Pittsburgh vs. Miami Under 3.5 Runs 1st 5 Innings (-145 on DraftKings)
Giants vs. Reds Prediction: Thursday, March 27th
There’s something oh so alluring about betting total when the Cincinnati Reds are playing at home and a lot of it has to do with the ballpark factor that ranks 3rd overall most friendly for hitters and 1st overall in home runs. The other part has to do with the offenses of each team with the Giants boasting some real power now in the duo of Willy Adames and Matt Chapman and the Reds rostering the human highlight reel in Elly De La Cruz.
Then there’s the pitching matchup and I know many in the fantasy circles like Hunter Greene, but he has been known to give up the long ball in his career and you can’t always rely on strikeouts. Greene will pitch against Logan Webb who is a solid pitcher don’t get me wrong but, on the road, he just wasn’t very good in 2024. That’s a trend going back years too go check out the splits for Logan Webb, I dare you!
Given the numbers and trends behind the teams and the ballpark I was surprised to see the total at just 8 runs. I imagine that’s the lowest we will see it all season but regardless I am hammering this game to go over in a slate where many games should go under.
- Expert Giants vs. Reds Picks:
- San Francisco vs. Cincinnati Over 8 Runs (-110 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 3/27
- Oakland Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners Under 7.5 Runs (-135 on DraftKings)
- Detroit Tigers Money Line (+135 on DraftKings)
Player News
Orioles manager Brandon Hyde told reporters that Zach Eflin (lat) is likely to return and start Sunday against the Angels
It was assumed that Eflin would be back this weekend, but now we have a concrete date. The 31-year-old may not be at full strength after throwing fewer than 60 pitches in his rehab start, but the Orioles feel confident enough to have the right-hander back on the bump for the series finale against the Angels.
Riley Greene is not in the lineup for the first game of a doubleheader against the Rockies on Thursday.
Greene will get a break and likely return to the lineup for the second game of the twin-billing. Zach McKinstry will get the start in left field while Greene rests.
Yu Darvish (elbow) is facing live hitters on Thursday.
Darvish has been throwing bullpen sessions and traveled to the team’s complex in Arizona to face live hitters on Thursday. It will be his first time facing live batters since a spring training appearance on March 13th. He will likely need a few sessions like this before the Padres can map out a rehab appearance timeline for him.
Adael Amador is starting at second base and batting ninth for the Rockies on Thursday.
Amador has now started three of the last four games at second base for the Rockies. He’s gone just 7-for-43 this season with 15 strikeouts in 16 games. He’s just 22 years old, so there is plenty of time for him to adjust to the MLB level, but he doesn’t need to be on redraft radars right now.
Jackson Holliday is playing second base and batting second for the Orioles on Thursday against the Twins.
With Cedric Mullins sitting out on Thursday, Gunnar Henderson will bat lead off, and Holliday will jump up from sixth in the order to second. Holliday is riding a hot streak right now, and the Orioles are taking advantage. This is likely just a one-game sample with no Mullins or Adley Rutschman in the lineup, but Rutschman has been struggling, so perhaps it could become a more permanent spot in the lineup for Holliday moving forward.
Endy Rodriguez (finger) had his splint removed this week.
Rodriguez suffered a lacerated right index finger on April 14th. Now that he is out of his splint, he “is playing catch and doing a slightly modified swing.” Once he can progress to taking full swings, we’ll have a better sense of the timeline for his return.