MLB Best Bets Today, 8/7: Expert Picks, Predictions & Props - Wednesday
Happy hump day on the MLB Best Bets and Props! We were humbled a bit yesterday with a 4-5-1 record, although I am still bitter about losing on the Dylan Cease prop due to a 3-hour rain delay. But hey, that’s how gambling works!
Live and learn as we pass to today’s wagers that include many afternoon games to get the juices flowing during the workday! Make sure to get these wagers before they start and let’s go have a day, boys and girls!
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 8/7
In today’s article, you will find a wide array of choices from some money lines and team totals to plenty of MLB props for the action today! The data really liked some specific bets, so make sure to double check your betting card before clicking submit for these ones tonight!
Check out the rationale, and if you agree with me, make sure to tail and good luck! Now, let's dive into my expert MLB predictions today.
- Season Record: 81-56-3
- Bankroll: +11.3 units
*Once you gaze over my MLB pick today, follow me on twitter @jwaggs10!
Tigers vs. Mariners Prediction: Wednesday, August 7th
I shouldn’t need to keep pounding the drum on this but I will once again: the Mariners have no offense whatsoever and tonight they are taking on Tarik Skubal, making this a premium matchup to attack. Seattle scores just 3.47 runs per game at home this season, the 2nd lowest average in MLB ahead of just the Chicago White Sox – that’s the kind of company they keep. Skubal on the mound should feast as well with the Mariners having the highest home K-rate in MLB at 29.2%.
Those numbers set up a few wagers off the bat here as Skubal is a strikeout machine with 24 in his last 20.1 innings pitched. His number of 7.5 is juiced a bit but against these Mariners bats, it could be 8.5 easily, so I will take the easy meat here and go over this prop. Then there’s the overall offenses that will be lacking against Skubal and George Kirby, so let’s ride the under on 3.5 runs in the 1st 5 innings.
Adding a fade to a batter prop as well with our MLB best bets here as Kirby is allowing just a .234 average to lefties this season and Parker Meadows fits the bill as someone to attack. Meadows is hitting .161 on the season and has 4 hits in the last 2 starts, so time for him to come back to earth and go under 0.5 hits tonight to cash this final bet in this game.
- Expert Tigers vs. Mariners Picks:
- Tigers vs. Mariners Under 3.5 Runs 1st 5 Innings (-150 on DraftKings)
- Tarik Skubal (DET) Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-150 on DraftKings)
- Parker Meadows (DET) Under 0.5 Hits (-120 on DraftKings)
Angels vs. Yankees Prediction (Game 1): Wednesday, August 7th
This one was rained out yesterday unfortunately, but I did love the stats and splits of the matchup, so let’s go back at it again today. The matchup between Davis Daniel and Luis Gil on the mound is a great one for the Yankees from the start, but there are other key factors at work that will net us some player props as well!
Davis Daniel is a rather green pitcher to the majors having only 4 starts under his belt this season and an ERA of 4.91 to go with it. During his 3 starts in July, he allowed 12 earned runs over 14 innings and 3 home runs; that’s not good when you’re facing Aaron Judge who is hitting .332 with a 1.154 OPS against righties this season. I love Judge this afternoon and his total bases prop of 1.5 is calling my name like a siren, so let’s go over on that.
I am also going to add Juan Soto to the MLB predictions ticket but will take hits+runs+RBIs as the walk rate scares me a bit and I will feel better knowing he can just be hit home to help us on the prop. Lastly, we are taking the Yankees to tee off one more time and wagering on them to go over their team total runs prop of 5.5 runs; should be a steam rolling today!
- Expert Angels vs. Yankees Picks:
- Aaron Judge (NYY) Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 on DraftKings)
- Juan Soto (NYY) Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-150 on DraftKings)
- New York Over 5.5 Team Total Runs (+115 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Prop Bets & Other Picks Today, 8/7
- Houston Astros Money Line (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Michael King (SD) Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Under 4.5 Runs 1st 5 Innings (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.