Sunday brings along another full slate of MLB games as we check out top MLB picks and baseball bets today. Our first game pick today features Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies going for a sweep of the Miami Marlins. We also dive into the NL Central matchup of the St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers. Plus, check out a few top MLB player props to lock in for Sunday’s games.

 

MLB Best Bets For Today: Sunday, May 12

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out the MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Sunday, May 12th. 

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction Today, 5/12

Zack Wheeler is having a Cy Young-caliber season for the Philadelphia Phillies. The ace right-hander boasts a 1.64 ERA through eight starts with only one earned run allowed over his past four outings combined. Wheeler’s 2.28 xERA and 2.31 FIP are also at elite levels right now. His 32.1% strikeout rate, .171 batting average against, and 0.89 WHIP are all career-high marks as well. 

We can have a lot of confidence in Wheeler regardless of opponent, but Sunday’s matchup is a particularly favorable one. The Miami Marlins continue to have one of the worst offenses in baseball. In particular, against right-handed pitching this season, the Marlins have a .288 wOBA (28th), 84 wRC+ (26th), and .645 OPS (28th). 

Even on the road, Wheeler should handle this Miami lineup. The Phils’ righty has dominated this divisional matchup across his career with the Mets and Phillies with a 2.48 ERA in 22 career starts against the Marlins. That includes a quality start recorded in each of his four matchups vs Miami last year. 

Meanwhile, the Phillies’ offense should provide run support against Marlins starter Braxton Garrett. The left-hander is making his season debut after beginning the year in the minors due to a shoulder injury. Garrett had up-and-down results in Triple-A with a 3.93 ERA across four outings. This is a tough matchup, though, against a potent Philly lineup that’s been hot for weeks. 

The Phillies are top-10 offense vs left-handed pitching this season with a .346 wOBA, 124 wRC+, .279 BA, and .777 OPS. The lineup just shelled Miami lefty Trevor Rogers for five runs in 3.1 innings on Friday night and could easily do the same against Garrett. In the month of May, the Phils are crushing lefties to the tune of a .394 wOBA, 157 wRC+, .203 ISO, and .319 average.

Behind another strong Wheeler outing and this dangerous Philadelphia offense, we can back the road team on the run line for the full game and the first five innings. The Phillies have taken the first two games of this series by final scores of 8-2 and 8-3. This Sunday matchup likely goes similarly. Let’s also take the Phillies team total over. 

Expert Phillies vs Marlins Predictions

  • Phillies -1.5 Runline (-135 BetMGM)
  • Phillies 1st 5 Innings -0.5 Runline (-145 BetMGM)
  • Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (-105 BetMGM)
 

 

Cardinals vs Brewers Prediction Today, 5/12

We have an interesting NL Central divisional matchup on tap for Sunday afternoon with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the St. Louis Cardinals. The starting pitching showdown is slated to be Miles Mikolas for the Cards against Bryse Wilson for the Brew Crew. There could be some offensive fireworks on both sides based on those starters. 

Mikolas has an ugly 6.43 ERA through eight starts this season and he’s allowed 5+ runs in three of his last four outings. One of those came against Milwaukee on April 20th when he gave up five runs, three homers, and nine hits across 4.2 innings. Although some underlying stats (4.76 FIP, .342 BABIP) might suggest positive regression, it likely won’t come this weekend. 

The Brewers have hit right-handed pitching very well this year with a .345 wOBA (2nd in MLB), 123 wRC+ (3rd), .174 ISO (5th), and .780 OPS (2nd). Those numbers have continued lately with a .347 wOBA, 125 wRC+, .202 ISO, and .792 OPS vs righties in the month of May. This is a tough spot for Mikolas, who’s been shaky. 

While the Brewers put up runs, the Cardinals can also add to the total in their own matchup vs Bryse Wilson. The Milwaukee right-hander has been pretty effective this year with a 1.35 ERA over his four starts and a 2.40 ERA overall (six relief outings). He’s even tossed back-to-back quality starts. However, there’s negative regression looming for Wilson. 

Wilson has some worrying advanced metrics with a 4.02 xERA and 4.30 FIP. His 90.2% left-on-base rate and .194 BABIP are unsustainable as well. It’s also worth noting that Wilson has a career 5.12 ERA as a starting pitcher and he compiled a 5.52 ERA during the 2022 season when he made 20 starts. He’s a prime fade candidate right now, as good as he’s been.

The Cardinals have below-average season-long numbers against right-handed pitching, but they’ve been much better lately in the split. Over the past week, the Cards have a .329 wOBA, 115 wRC+, .182 ISO, and 11.9% walk rate vs righties – all top-10 in the MLB. The offense has been disappointing this year but can plate a few with Wilson bound to regress. 

Expert Cardinals vs Brewers Predictions

  • Over 8 Total Runs (-115 BetMGM)

Best MLB Player Props Today, 5/12