MLB Best Bets Today, 4/30 - Expert Picks, Predictions, Props, & Odds
Are you ready to tackle some MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets today? Let’s get it!
Nothing starts off your week like a strong day of MLB picks on Monday, and we did just that. Sure, Trevor Rogers was a massive disappointment and we just barely missed Bailey Falter’s outs-prop by one batter, but we crushed it yesterday with our picks for the Phillies vs. Angels game as well as Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.
We did have a couple of bets canceled with the Tigers vs. Cardinals game getting postponed, but overall, it was a great day that found us swimming in the green.
*Editor’s Note: Dive into the world of sports betting on BettorEdge and find the most favorable MLB odds and lines. Sign up now with promo code ALARM to enjoy a $10 bonus!
MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 4/30
We’ve got another full slate to play with here on Tuesday. Keep in mind, the Tigers and Cardinals will play a doubleheader and I will likely avoid both games. Lineups for doubleheaders change, pitching matchups change, and without knowing exactly who will be in the lineup card for each game, it’s best to simply avoid.
Besides, there are plenty of other spots to find the value we need. You’ll find my complete list of MLB predictions for today, April 30th, below.
- Yesterday’s Record: 8-2
- Season Record: 76-61-1
- Bankroll: +7.68 units
*Each of my MLB best bets will have the corresponding MLB odds displayed alongside them.
Twins vs. White Sox Prediction: Tuesday, April 30
I never like it when a pitcher faces the same team twice in a row, and the fact that it’s Mike Soroka seeing the Twins again, I have to jump on it. I was hoping to see some value on the Twins first five inning team total, but it’s juiced up pretty well on the over 2.5 runs, so we’ll pivot to the first seven innings for one run more.
My projections have the Twins posting at least 3 runs on Soroka, so one more the rest of the way? Why not? Maybe it’s Trevor Larnach, who continues to hammer right-handed pitching lately, that does it for us to kill two birds with one stone.
- Expert Twins vs. White Sox Picks:
- Minnesota First 7 Innings Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-115 on DraftKings)
- Trevor Larnach Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-120 on BetMGM)
Guardians vs. Astros Prediction: Tuesday, April 30
If you caught me and Jon Impemba on the MLB DFS Preview Show, you know we’re pushing the chips all-in on runs being scored in this one. No one has much confidence in Hunter Brown and even though the Guardians haven’t been some kind of offensive juggernaut, they are loaded with left-handed bats that can do some early damage.
On the other side, Carlos Carrasco is a favorite of mine to pick on and, not only have the Astros posted a .329 wOBA with a .186 ISO over the past week, but they also have a .325 wOBA against righties this season and they don’t strike out. I’m confident in the Astros bats to make heavy contact and likely chase Carrasco relatively early to add onto today’s MLB predictions.
- Expert Guardians vs. Astros Picks:
- Cleveland vs. Houston First 5 Innings Total Runs Over 5 (-105 on Bet365)
- Jose Altuve Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 on BetMGM)
- Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105 on BetMGM)
- Andres Gimenez Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-120 on BetMGM)
Rockies vs. Marlins Prediction: Tuesday, April 30
We’re taking a little chance here investing in the Rockies bats, but this is more of an indictment of Sixto Sanchez still trying to work his way back to respectability. He was once lauded as the next elite superstar, but injuries have ravaged his career and now he’s being used as an opener which hasn’t boded well for him.
The Rockies just need to take an early lead and let the struggling Miami bats do the rest. What I mean by that is the Marlins need to show exactly why they’ve posted a .270 wOBA with a feeble .118 ISO over the past week. It also helps that the Fish have terrible numbers against right-handed pitching as is, so we just need them to stay quiet for five innings.
- Expert Rockies vs. Marlins Picks:
- Colorado First 5 Innings Money Line (+120 on Bet365)
Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction: Tuesday, April 30
The last of my MLB predictions today is one that’s plain and simple. The Yankees bats are white-hot right now, posting a .390 wOBA with a .223 ISO. I was hoping to see some decent lines on props for Aaron Judge, but to no avail.
Even if you wanted to sprinkle a half-unit on him to hit a HR, that’s at +185 right now, which really doesn’t move the needle for me. I’ll just bank on all the Yankees bats early on and grab some decent odds on their first-five team total.
- Expert Yankees vs. Orioles Picks:
- New York First 5 Innings Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (-105 on DraftKings)
Best MLB Props Today, 4/30
- Alex Wood Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 on Caesars Sportsbook)
- Reynaldo Lopez Over 16.5 Outs (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Javier Assad Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-115 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
- Spencer Turnbull Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Thank you for dedicating your time to read my MLB picks for today! Remember to take advantage of the incredible resources provided here at Fantasy Alarm.
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.