MLB Best Bets Today, 4/17 - Expert Picks, Predictions, Props, & Odds
Time to look at the MLB Best Bets and Prop Bets for today! Right off the bat, you’ve been warned that this is going to be a tougher than normal slate to bet.
Anytime you hit a point where it’s not only an abundance of day games which takes most players out of their normal routines and we see managers resting guys, but you’re also in a spot where teams are throwing the back end of their rotation, the slate gets a little rough. You also find less value on some of the regular MLB picks we’ve been riding.
MLB Best Bets & Prop Bets For Today: Wednesday, April 17
When you see me betting the day very lightly and not playing as much volume, understand there’s a reason for that. I just want there to be some understanding as we analyze slates together!
Just a note to wrap up yesterday’s MLB predictions: we pushed on the Giants first-five money line and then one of our MLB props was canceled because Will Smith didn’t play. We had some ups and downs, but overall, we did turn a small profit! The winning streak continues with today’s MLB picks.
- Yesterday’s Record: 5-4-1
- Season Record: 53-43-1
- Bankroll: +6.04
*The corresponding MLB odds will be shown beside each selection.
Cardinals vs. Athletics Prediction Today, 4/17
Interesting game today as we have two offenses who just aren’t swinging the bats well at all. The Athletics, who continue to be without Brent Rooker and now J.D. Davis, have posted a .244 wOBA with a 30% strikeout rate over the past week. The Cards are also sporting a .265 wOBA with a 32.1% strikeout rate.
I may not be a fan of Steven Matz, but even the biggest critic has a tough time believing the Athletics are going to score off of him. The strikeouts prop is tempting, but I’m going to avoid it simply because I don’t trust him in full.
On the other side, Paul Blackburn starts for the A’s, and he’s looked strong this season. Through three starts, he’s pitched at least six innings and has yet to allow an earned run. The Cardinals are sitting on a .297 wOBA against righties this season and they’re not showing any legitimate power (.137 ISO).
Blackburn has been incredibly efficient thus far and with a soft matchup, he should continue to perform well to start off today’s MLB predictions.
- Expert Cardinals vs. Athletics Picks:
- St. Louis vs. Oakland Under 4.5 Runs - First 5 Innings (-115 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
- Paul Blackburn Over 17.5 Outs (-125 on Bet365 Sportsbook)
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Prediction Today, 4/17
This pitching matchup is one that I want to attack in today’s MLB picks, but also from a season-long fantasy aspect. Both Brandon Pfaadt and Jordan Wicks have potential, but neither is off to a great start this season and both offenses look fantastic.
The Cubs haven’t put up a ton of runs lately, but they’ve been solid against right-handed pitching. Pfaadt has had a few hiccups lately, allowing 11 runs over 11.2 innings, and the Cubs bats should be able to get to him at some point in this game.
Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks offense is one I’ve been riding all season, and I don’t see a reason to not believe in them here against Wicks. Arizona has a .359 wOBA against lefties this season, they’re not striking out, and have provided some solid power. So long as the team isn’t resting its key components, they should score some runs today.
- Expert Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Picks:
- Chicago vs. Arizona Total Over 9 Runs (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
- Lourdes Gurriel Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook)
Best MLB Props Today, April 17
- J.P. France Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Zack Littell Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Triston Casas Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Thanks for taking a look at my MLB predictions for today! Make sure to explore the other amazing features that Fantasy Alarm has to offer as well.
Player News
Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.