MLB Best Bets For Today, 7/14 - Expert Picks, Predictions, & Props
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Welcome back to another Sunday of MLB picks as we take a closer look at all of today’s games. Let’s dive into MLB Best Bets and Arops as you enjoy the weekend action!
Our top MLB predictions today feature the Twins vs. Giants and the Nationals vs. Brewers matchups. Plus, we wrap up our Sunday baseball betting card with some top MLB props.
Enjoy the afternoon and night baseball as we cash our plays!
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 7/14
As always, be sure to shop around for the best Vegas Odds and Lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing.
Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and props for Sunday, July 14th!
Twins vs. Giants Prediction Today, July 14th
Our first MLB bet today focuses on the San Francisco Giants hosting the Minnesota Twins. We have two shaky pitchers on the mound in Chris Paddack and Blake Snell, which immediately points us to the over. Let’s break down why we can expect a higher-scoring game.
Paddack has been up-and-down all season for Minnesota. He has a 5.18 ERA and 1.40 WHIP so far. The right-hander’s predictive metrics (4.75 xERA, 4.36 FIP) aren’t much better, but his underlying advanced stats are more worrisome. Paddack’s 20.1% strikeout rate and 14.6% K-BB rate are both career-lows while his 42.8% hard-hit rate (21st MLB percentile) and 9.7% barrel rate (18th) are poor as well.
The Twins’ starter has benefited from easy matchups lately – facing the White Sox, Athletics (twice), and Rockies over his past four outings. Paddack has gotten hit hard by capable lineups, though. The Giants have been above-average vs. righties recently with a .319 wOBA, 110 wRC+, and .205 ISO in the split over the past two weeks. They can get to Paddack, who has an ugly 7.25 ERA on the road this season.
On the other side, we should see the Twins plate their fair share of runs against Snell. The Giants’ left-hander recently returned from injury with 5 shutout innings last time out. Still, he owns a poor 7.85 ERA and 1.74 WHIP this year. Meanwhile, Minnesota is crushing lefties with a .421 wOBA, 180 wRC+, .238 ISO, and .991 OPS in the split over the past month.
The Twins have excellent numbers vs. southpaws this season overall (.345 wOBA, 126 wRC+). Snell has gotten hit around by better lineups this season and we need to see multiple good outings in a row to trust him right now. Grab the over for the full game and first five innings.
Expert Twins vs. Giants Picks
- Over 8 Total Runs (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (+110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nationals vs. Brewers Prediction Today, July 14th
Sunday afternoon’s interleague matchup between the Washington Nationals and Milwaukee Brewers presents an interesting opportunity to back the road team. As risky as it is to fade the Brewers at home, let’s break down why the Nats are worth a look today.
Washington starter Jake Irvin has a solid 3.13 ERA and 1.04 WHIP this season. He’s been a bright spot in the Nationals’ rotation and likely just missed out on an All-Star nod. Irvin just coughed up 6 runs last time out, but he was very effective before that. He had a 1.79 ERA over his prior 9 outings with 8 quality starts in that stretch. The right-hander also owns a 2.92 road ERA so far.
Irvin will face a Milwaukee offense that’s actually been below average against right-handed pitching lately. Over the past two weeks vs. righties, the Brewers have a .297 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and .227 batting average. Over the past week in the split, those numbers are even worse (.269 wOBA, 72 wRC+, .181 BA). Irvin can hold his own in this spot.
On the other side, let’s bank on the Nats providing run support in their own matchup. Brewers starter Colin Rea has a 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP this season. The righty’s predictive metrics (5.21 xERA, 4.67 FIP, 4.58 xFIP) point to some negative regression. Rea’s 16.5% strikeout rate (12th MLB percentile), .286 xBA (7th), 23.7% chase rate (10th), and 90.5 mph average exit velo (12th) are all worrisome.
Rea will take on a sneaky-dangerous Nationals offense. Over the past week, Washington has been hammering right-handers with a .372 wOBA, 142 wRC+, .293 BA, and .855 OPS. The Nats are also a top-10 lineup vs. righties over the past month (.321 wOBA, 108 wRC+).
There’s value on the Nationals here. Let’s take them on the moneyline for both the full game and the first five innings.
Expert Nationals vs. Brewers Picks
- Nationals Moneyline (+130 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Nationals 1st 5 Innings ML (+115 BetMGM)
Best MLB Player Props Today, 7/14
- Dean Kremer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-136 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Trevor Rogers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110 BetMGM)
- Jameson Taillon Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Nico Hoerner Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 BetMGM)
- Zac Gallen Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-135 BetMGM)