Welcome to another round of MLB best bets as we dive into Saturday’s full slate of games to kick off Memorial Day Weekend. Our first MLB play today features the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres in, hopefully, an offensive battle. The Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers matchup is also a focus of today’s top MLB picks. Plus, we wrap up our Saturday betting card with a few top MLB props. 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 5/25

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Saturday, May 25th!

Yankees vs. Padres Prediction Today, 5/25

The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres square off in an interleague Saturday night battle featuring the AL East vs NL West. The starting pitching matchup of Marcus Stroman vs Dylan Cease in a pitcher-friendly ballpark may point towards a lower-scoring game on the surface. Yet, we’re going the other way. 

Marcus Stroman has been a pleasant surprise for the Yankees this year with a 3.05 ERA through 10 starts. However, the veteran right-hander is due for negative regression and is a prime fade candidate. Stroman is benefiting from a low .257 BABIP and a high 83.1% strand rate to keep his ERA lower. Thus, his expected stats (4.77 FIP, 4.61 xERA, 4.11 xFIP) are much higher. Stroman’s underlying metrics also show his 11.0% walk rate and 8.1% barrel as career-best marks. Plus, his 90.8 mph fastball velocity is at a career-low – which is worrisome for any aging pitcher. 

This is all to say that Stroman has gotten a bit lucky thus far and could have some shaky starts soon. San Diego is certainly capable of an offensive outburst, as streaky as its lineup might be. The Padres have a top-5 offense against right-handed pitching this season (.334 wOBA, 122 wRC+, .756 OPS) and are on the favorable end of their splits here. In the month of May vs righties, they are second in the majors in wOBA (.347), wRC+ (131), and OPS (.782) and first in batting average (.284). Stroman’s luck may run out in this matchup. 

As the Padres put up runs at home, the Yankees should add to the total as well. Yes, Dylan Cease is having a strong season with a 3.05 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and 0.93 WHIP. Still, we’re banking on the New York offense to stay hot – especially against a right-handed pitcher. The Yanks are the best offense in baseball vs righties in almost every advanced stat. Over the past two weeks, they’re crushing righty arms with a .364 wOBA, 140 wRC+, .237 ISO, and .842 OPS in the split. 

It’s always tough to fade a pitcher like Cease. If there ever was a time to do it, though, it’s against this potent Yankees offense. Plus, Cease just allowed 5 runs on 9 hits to the Braves last time out and has a 4.30 ERA over his past 5 starts. The Padres’ starter has also struggled at home, despite pitching in a favorable park. Cease has a 4.03 ERA at home compared to a 2.45 ERA on the road this year. 

Let’s take the over for both the full game and the first five innings. You can also look at the team total overs for either team if you want some more action in this Saturday nightcap.

Expert Yankees vs. Padres Picks

  • Over 7.5 Total Runs (-110 BetMGM)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over 4.5 Runs (+108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
 


 

Blue Jays vs. Tigers Prediction Today, 5/25

Similar to the game above, Saturday’s tilt between the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers may look like an under play based on the starting pitcher matchup. Yet, we’re fading the hot starts for both Jose Berrios and Reese Olson this weekend. Both have sub-3.00 ERA’s but it’s time to sell high as we root for offense in this one. 

Jose Berrios boasts a 2.98 ERA through 10 starts thus far, yet he’s a classic negative regression candidate. Berrios’ expected metrics (4.86 xERA, 4.62 FIP, 4.14 xFIP) are notably higher than this ERA. That’s in part due to a low .250 BABIP and high 87.5% left-on-base rate – both of which would be career-best marks for the 30-year-old. It’s also worrisome that Berrios’ 12.5% K-BB percentage and 46.7% hard hit rate are career-worst marks too. 

Berrios has thus gotten lucky to not have more poor outings like when he coughed up 8 runs to the Phillies just a couple of weeks ago. He’s already showing some cracks with a 5.34 ERA and 6.10 FIP over his past five starts combined. Then we have a Tigers offense that has excellent numbers against right-handed pitching lately. Detroit has a .349 wOBA, 127 wRC+, .802 OPS, and .285 BA vs righties over the past week as a top-5 offense in the split. 

Tigers starter Reese Olson also has an impressive 2.16 ERA across his first nine outings. It’s possible that the 24-year-old righty is having a breakout season in his sophomore campaign, but some underlying numbers tell a different story. Olson is likely to see some negative regression based on his 3.47 xERA and 3.80 xFIP. His low .257 BABIP, 2.3% HR/FB rate, and 13.3% K-BB percentage are worrying indicators too. 

Olson will face a Toronto offense that started the season slow but has woken up. Specifically, against right-handed pitching over the past week, the Blue Jays have a .355 wOBA, 131 wRC+, and .803 OPS. This lineup is much more dangerous for opposing righties than it was just a month ago. With Olson due for a poor outing soon, it may come on Saturday. 

We’re grabbing the over for both the full game and the first five innings. The Tigers team total over is also an attractive bet at home with Berrios’ regression potential. 

Expert Blue Jays vs. Tigers Picks

  • Over 8 Total Runs (-110 FanDuel Sportsbook)
  • 1st 5 Innings Over (Not posted at time of writing)
  • Tigers Team Total Over (Not Posted at time of writing)
 

 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 5/25