Sunday brings us another full slate of baseball action as we dive into top MLB picks today. Our first MLB play today features George Kirby and the Seattle Mariners taking on the Baltimore Orioles. 

The Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies matchup is also one to target. Plus, we wrap up our betting card with a few top MLB props to lock in for Sunday’s games.

 

 

 

MLB Picks, Predictions, & Best Bets Today, 5/19

As always, be sure to shop around for the best odds and lines at different sportsbooks. The odds in this article below are accurate as of this writing. Without further ado, let’s check out my MLB best bets and baseball predictions for Sunday, May 19th!

 

 

 

Mariners vs. Orioles Prediction Today, 5/19

Sunday afternoon brings us an AL matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles to wrap up their three-game series. The starting pitching matchup of George Kirby vs. Corbin Burnes features one hurler with positive underlying metrics, and another bound for negative regression, so why not attack that in our MLB predictions today?

George Kirby’s 3.58 ERA is decent on paper, but some of his advanced stats suggest the Mariners right-hander has been even better. He boasts a 2.86 FIP and 3.04 xERA, which are notably lower than that ERA. His 25.1% strikeout rate, .221 batting average against, and 0.95 WHIP are all career-best marks too. Kirby has a 1.75 ERA over his past 6 starts and just tossed 7 shutout innings last time out. 

That brings us to the Orioles offense, which has been terrible against right-handed pitching lately. In the month of May, the O’s have a .263 wOBA (30th), 71 wRC+ (29th), .188 BA (30th), and .602 OPS (30th) vs. righties. On the flip side, Baltimore is crushing left-handed pitching. Kirby can take advantage of this offense on the wrong end of its splits. 

On the other side, we have Corbin Burnes starting for Baltimore. The righty has a 2.68 ERA so far but his 3.54 FIP suggests some worse outings could be coming. In particular, Burnes’ 23.3% strikeout rate and 81.1% left-on-base rate are a bit concerning and tell us he’s gotten a bit lucky in terms of allowing runs. 

The Seattle offense has been below league-average vs. right-handers this season, but it’s a lot better in the split recently. The Mariners have a .328 wOBA, 117 wRC+, and .744 OPS vs. righties over the past week. It could be just good enough to provide run support behind a strong Kirby outing. There’s value on the Mariners as road underdogs here. 

 

 

 

Nationals vs. Phillies Prediction Today, 5/19

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals in a Sunday afternoon series finale. In this NL East matchup, we get Trevor Williams on the mound for DC and Aaron Nola starting for Philly. Let’s see how to bet this one. 

Trevor Williams is having a blazing hot start to the season with a 1.94 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 4-0 record through eight starts. However, the Nationals’ right-hander is likely due for negative regression based on some underlying stats and his career track record. Williams’ 3.27 xERA and 3.89 xFIP compared to his 1.94 ERA are hard to ignore. Plus, his .259 BABIP and 2.4% HR/FB rate are considerably lower than his .316 BABIP and 17.0% HR/FB rate last season. 

Don’t forget, Williams is still the same pitcher who struggled to a 5.55 ERA a year ago as a full-time starter for Washington. The 32-year-old also has a career 4.42 ERA as a starting pitcher. This is an impressive start but he’s an ideal fade candidate moving forward as he probably regresses back to an average or below-average arm. 

Meanwhile, the Phillies are crushing right-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .337 wOBA, 118 wRC+, and .755 OPS. These numbers line up with Philly’s season-long top-tier splits vs. righties (.328 wOBA, 112 wRC+, .165 ISO, 747 OPS). The offense is rolling right now and showing no signs of slowing down. It’s a tough spot for Williams, on the road, to keep it going – especially since he has a 5.20 ERA in 45 career innings vs. the Phillies, including a 5.48 ERA over four starts last year. 

As the Phillies provide run support, let’s also back Aaron Nola to post another good start. The righty is coming off a complete-game shutout against the Mets and has been in good form for the past month-plus. In fact, if we factor out his blowup outing at the beginning of the season against Atlanta, Nola has a 2.35 ERA across his eight other starts so far. 

Nola has owned the Nats recently with a 1.57 ERA over his past five starts vs. Washington going back to the 2022 season. He should keep it going against this subpar offense that’s really struggled against right-handed pitching lately. Over the past week vs. righties, the Nationals have a .258 wOBA, 64 wRC+, .089 ISO, .189 BA, and .557 OPS. This is a good spot for Nola to anchor a comfortable Phillies win. 

 

 

 

Best MLB Player Props Today, 5/19